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THE SHELL GAME


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#1 youmast

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 06:58 PM

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#2 youmast

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 07:15 PM

POSTED A BIT EARLY

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#3 da_cheif

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 07:33 PM

shell game????........sounds like a complaint......:>)

#4 dasein

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 08:23 PM

Yuri, great to see you do visit, and great comments as usual. the only thing I was taken with, is that the dollar started selling off wicked this morning, way before the FED, in the Japanese market and as soon as europe opened - personally, I wonder what it means. although the debt we are serviceing makes short the dollar the obvious move, chartwise it looks more like a bottom formation if you look at the weeklies in JPY, CHF, EUR... confused, klh

Edited by dasein, 31 January 2007 - 08:24 PM.

best,
klh

#5 arbman

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 08:46 PM

Thanks for your comments youmast, where have you been? :)

although the debt we are serviceing makes short the dollar the obvious move, chartwise it looks more like a bottom formation if you look at the weeklies in JPY, CHF, EUR...


Dasein, I had the same confusion and my conclusion was the dollar must be bottoming, the liquidity is already drying. I think an extended decline in the USD from these levels might occur if the other central banks do not play along with the Fed's inflation game and force them to raise into the slowing US economy, it wouldn't be fun...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 31 January 2007 - 08:52 PM.


#6 A-ha

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 10:04 PM

Good to see you posting. I had a Russian friend when I was an engineer, he wouldnt stop drinking till he gets at least a couple of 60 degrees ... Your avatar reminded me that...looks like you could challenge him seriously.

#7 arbman

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Posted 31 January 2007 - 10:19 PM

Youmast, what do you say about the big haircut in the open interest? How come this is the 3 of 3 of 3 and the big brokerages are trimming down their option exposure? I think the volatility will continue to increase and they are not really interested in writing the options as much anymore. This straight up will follow a straight down, no doubt about it in my mind, so they could not play the two sides heavily... So, this might challenge your option writing theory on the Qs and make the correction phase closer, imho... - kisa

#8 youmast

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 02:25 AM

shell game????........sounds like a complaint......:>)


Not at all... I just explain why "da-bull" sounds like a hog. Next time you have to add "honk-honk" at the end of your comments. :)
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RE: drinking.

He-he-he.... I'm not such a strong drinker. Very little practice in it....


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RE: open interest, correction.

Kisa, I think it will happen next quarter.

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RE: dollar-stocks relationship.

Well, dasein... I really don't care what dropped first. The result is clear: American Stock Market won as much as American Dollar lost. Here is my early comment on this.

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#9 dasein

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 08:51 AM

Yuri, agree about the dollar vs stocks, also when you look at stocks vs US debt since 82, they seem closely related, the other side of the same issue. Agree absolutely about wealth creation vs wealth redistribution. Kisa, like to have you seeing what I see! I do think we are going to see rising rates, and it will not be pretty. Perhaps, taken together with Yuri's observation, stocks should go down in tandem. generally, bonds lead stocks, Larry Williams observes that gold leads bonds - which would almost imply that USD leads bonds, I think oil leads gold.... best, karen
best,
klh

#10 PorkLoin

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 09:00 AM

Dasein: when you look at stocks vs US debt since 82, they seem closely related

Hey Karen, no doubt, and I shudder to think about deflation. Not saying it's around the corner but rising rates = indeed not pretty.

Best,

Doug