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Dang emotions are way out of wack again


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#1 dcengr

dcengr

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Posted 01 February 2007 - 01:31 AM

Its all good. Was wonderin where the bulls went, looks like they're all back. I think I'm not stretching it to say the bulls feel pretty confident here. And I'm not stretching it to say the bears feel a bit of fear here, but maybe not as much as I think they should. Its likely because NDX is in the gutters. But those watching RUT, MID, SPX, Dow, NYA know there was what looks like a breakout on all of them. I'm short, but I remain very cautious here. I'm expecting the emotional whipsaw to end soon, and my guess is to the downside, but all the indices are still in a recognized uptrend (ie making higher highs, higher lows). Lets keep things civil, and if you see something interesting, please post. We don't have to turn this into a holy war of bull vs bear religions. For the curious, these are the two sentiment data released today (II, and AAII). I have to say that bullishness has been rather high for a long period of time. Its more interesting because since about november, ndx/rut/mid were sort of flat, and spx/dow/oex didn't really make a whole lot of gains. I couldn't tell you if we're at a point where bullishness will stay up with declining prices, though. Beause we haven't really had declining prices. II Data Bull Bear Bull% Bull-Bear Ratio 09/19/06 47.4 33.7 58.45% 13.7 1.41 09/26/06 47.4 33.7 58.45% 13.7 1.41 10/03/06 49.5 33.3 59.78% 16.2 1.49 10/10/06 52.2 30.4 63.20% 21.8 1.72 10/18/06 52.2 30 63.50% 22.2 1.74 10/25/06 52.7 30.1 63.65% 22.6 1.75 11/01/06 53.7 28.4 65.41% 25.3 1.89 11/08/06 52.1 26 66.71% 26.1 2.00 11/15/06 56.4 22.3 71.66% 34.1 2.53 11/22/06 58.5 22.3 72.40% 36.2 2.62 11/28/06 57.5 22.3 72.06% 35.2 2.58 12/06/06 59.8 23.9 71.45% 35.9 2.50 12/13/06 59.6 21.3 73.67% 38.3 2.80 12/20/06 58.8 20.6 74.06% 38.2 2.85 12/27/06 56.5 19.6 74.24% 36.9 2.88 01/03/07 55.3 21.3 72.19% 34 2.60 01/10/07 55.4 20.7 72.80% 34.7 2.68 01/17/07 50.5 22.1 69.56% 28.4 2.29 01/24/07 52.7 20.9 71.60% 31.8 2.52 01/31/07 53.3 21.1 71.64% 32.2 2.53 AAII Data Bull Neutral Bear Bull% 10/11/06 48.98 13.27 37.76 56.47% 10/18/06 54.20 16.03 29.77 64.55% 10/25/06 52.17 17.39 30.43 63.16% 11/02/06 43.75 19.38 36.88 54.26% 11/08/06 50.60 22.89 26.51 65.62% 11/15/06 46.56 22.90 30.53 60.40% 11/22/06 41.94 16.13 41.94 50.00% 11/29/06 40.22 12.29 47.49 45.86% 12/06/06 38.94 19.47 41.59 48.35% 12/14/06 41.33 20.67 38.00 52.10% 12/20/06 39.08 18.39 42.53 47.89% 12/27/06 46.00 18.00 36.00 56.10% 01/03/07 49.14 21.55 29.31 62.64% 01/10/07 44.44 21.30 34.26 56.47% 01/17/07 57.58 15.15 27.27 67.86% 01/24/07 39.51 27.16 33.33 54.24% 01/31/07 46.32 23.16 30.53 60.27%
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