9 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

with SPX trying to go in the other direction... This became very obvious starting at 11:00-11:30 ET ... You probably know what I meant by that. I will not talk about who leads what and such now. Tape action is clear, see the chart I posted in "Funny". NDX once again dumped at the top line

Edited by xD&Cox, 01 February 2007 - 02:24 PM.

[dcengr]

with SPX trying to go in the other direction... This became very obvious starting at 11:00-11:30 ET ...
You probably know what I meant by that. I will not talk about who leads what and such now.

Tape action is clear, see the chart I posted in "Funny". NDX once again dumped at the top line

I wanna see Qs break 43.80 today. That'll make me feel warm and fuzzy.

[A-ha]

What bothers me is that this whole thing started look like Jan - May 2006 period and as a bear, that concerns me because the market usually doesn't repeat the same pattern consecutively. Therefore there could be a big distortion in this pattern very soon.

[dcengr]

What bothers me is that this whole thing started look like Jan - May 2006 period and as a bear, that concerns me because the market usually doesn't repeat the same pattern consecutively. Therefore there could be a big distortion in this pattern very soon.

There's a big difference between jan-may 06 period under the hood.

Futures positions and sentiment, for one. Back then, large traders backed off and started shorting beween jan/may period. Sentiment kept getting worse and worse going into may. Breadth was also deteriorating.

Also note that RUT, MID, and other indices weren't lagging as bad in may 06 as it is now.

Right now, futures positions are near ATHs, so is sentiment. Breadth is NOT deteriorating. There's gigantic complacency here, the kind this bull market has never seen.

Even with all the chop action, this hasn't changed.

[A-ha]

When you say breath, I assume you talking about NYA A/D line. That is not a trend maker in my book. There are many other breath measures on different indices that look miserable. May be that is why we re seeing so different markets at the same time.

Edited by xD&Cox, 01 February 2007 - 02:47 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

One thing for sure. There is a lot of mixed signals here. Prices continue to float up and I don't know where all the money is coming from. I take a look at the total number of Assets accross all Rydex Index Funds and they are at a three year low. I think the individual investor is cashing out, and money managers are manipulating the market higher.... Barry

[dcengr]

When you say breath, I assume you talking about NYA A/D line. That is not a trend maker in my book.

There are many other breath measures on different indices that look miserable.

May be that is why we re seeing so different markets at the same time.

I'm not a firm believer in the moneyflow theories based on NYA A/D. There are some things that I've seen work, mainly a ST divergence between AD line and price is usually a good short.

Otherwise, I think its faith based investing, because I can't seem to see how it works even 50% of the time. But others will disagree, yet I've never seen evidence posted.. just told to "believe it". Feels.. a bit cultish to me.

[A-ha]

One thing for sure. There is a lot of mixed signals here. Prices continue to float up and I don't know where all the money is coming from. I take a look at the total number of Assets accross all Rydex Index Funds and they are at a three year low. I think the individual investor is cashing out, and money managers are manipulating the market higher....

Barry

How Rydex inflows can effect indices at best? Any study done on this? I dont think it can even give a multiday push... Does it have any use other than sentiment?

When you say breath, I assume you talking about NYA A/D line. That is not a trend maker in my book.

There are many other breath measures on different indices that look miserable.

May be that is why we re seeing so different markets at the same time.

I'm not a firm believer in the moneyflow theories based on NYA A/D. There are some things that I've seen work, mainly a ST divergence between AD line and price is usually a good short.

Otherwise, I think its faith based investing, because I can't seem to see how it works even 50% of the time. But others will disagree, yet I've never seen evidence posted.. just told to "believe it". Feels.. a bit cultish to me.

I been trying to say that for long time but didnt wanna hurt feelings. Especially I find it tragicomic to trade Nasdaq using NYA A/D, yet I saw a few getting bulled up a few hundred times on SOX using NYA A/D logic in the last 4 months

Edited by xD&Cox, 01 February 2007 - 03:07 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

I just think Rydex shows the mentality of the average mutual fund investor out there,. It seems their ferver for stocks is out a three year low. I don't think Rydex controls the market, but it does provide insight that can be valuable for contrarian trading ( I think ). Barry

[Echo]

One thing for sure. There is a lot of mixed signals here. Prices continue to float up and I don't know where all the money is coming from. I take a look at the total number of Assets accross all Rydex Index Funds and they are at a three year low. I think the individual investor is cashing out, and money managers are manipulating the market higher....

Barry

Many have noted the same thing and the rydex numbers and bull and bear assets etc don't work in the same way as rydex's total assets are going down. The ratio's are better.

Where is the money going? Well just think about it. You have Profunds, Direxion, and a whole truck load of ETFs you never had back when the rydex assets were climbing.

Competition.

The money is spreading out, IMO.

Echo