9 replies to this topic

[pdx5]

Overvalued...When
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S&P 500 price/peak earnings greater than 18

Overbought...When
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S&P 500 at a 4-year high, and at least 5% higher than its level 6 months earlier

Overbullish...When
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Investors Intelligence percentage of bullish advisors above 53%
Yield pressure
3-month Treasury yield higher than its level of 6 months earlier

Mr. Hussman then goes on to list instances in the past 40 years when above
conditions were present and how the market behave in the immediately
following periods....

http://www.hussman.n...c/wmc070115.htm

Edited by pdx5, 02 February 2007 - 01:29 AM.

[Sentient Being]

To me, it's the same old issue. You can say the market is overbought, but you can't predict how long in terms of days, months, years, that condition might continue. Even he acknowledges that the markets may not cooperate with his view of where they are headed. I'm starting to beleive that if there is a "secret" to trading, it's lies in developing trading tools or systems that are unique and then not sharing them with the general public. Or, the secret may be that no one has discovered the secret.

[da_cheif]

CLX

[bigtrader]

No big secret for those that listen and apply to themselves lessons learned by others hard work.

[Sentient Being]

No big secret for those that listen and apply to themselves lessons learned by others hard work.

I used to beleive that, years ago. I'm a real doubting thomas these days. I just searched your 47 posts for that wisdom...You must be posting the good stuff that will turn me into a trader that outperforms the market under another alias?

Edited by Sentient Being, 02 February 2007 - 09:28 AM.

[paulstan]

Hussman has rigorous methods/studies to back his analysis, and it's fairly easy to judge his effectiveness, as he implements his strategies in management of the mutual funds he manages. His weekly commentary is a great read . . . and I think extremely valuable given the timliness of his recent comments.

[da_cheif]

timer digest tracks hussmans performance

[Sentient Being]

Hussman has rigorous methods/studies to back his analysis, and it's fairly easy to judge his effectiveness, as he implements his strategies in management of the mutual funds he manages. His weekly commentary is a great read . . . and I think extremely valuable given the timliness of his recent comments.

I like Hussmans stuff. I always read it when someone puts up a link. He is very convincing. But there was a time when I thought prechter had the truth too. That cost me some money. Now I'm cured and deeply into risk management.

[pdx5]

Thanks everyone for your comments, especially Paulstan since you seem to have followed Hussman for some time. In my 43 years of exposure to stock markets (I started at 11, ha ha) if there is one thing I have learned is that there is no sure fire method or guru who can predict the market. However, like a good handicapper at the racetrack, you improve your ODDS of success if you follow work done by competent professionals with proven records. Personally I don't have neither the time or the desire to become a professional analyst. This article by Hussman stood out as done on basis of good sound criteria and rigorous backtesting.

[da_cheif]

you awta go to hussmans archives.....you wont be so impressed....ive know him for years.......and his work.....