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Sentimentrader: rally not believed.


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 02 February 2007 - 07:17 PM

Sentimentrader.com actually moved a bit more bearish Wednesday evening after the FED.
Wednesday was the last trading day of January which is up more often than any other day of the year.
Last night,after moves to new highs, it was a little more bullish.
Tonight, a little more bearish move closer th neutral..

I doubt if a Black Monday is in store but WWW is coming.
A pullback to the S&P breakout area would be bought, I believe.

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Edited by Rogerdodger, 02 February 2007 - 07:23 PM.


#2 Gary Smith

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Posted 02 February 2007 - 07:39 PM

We had a long thread on this disbelief Monday evening right here on the forum - from the record number of bears in the Tickersense blogger poll, the lack of excitement among the Rydexers, to the continual record short selling of the public vs. NYSE members and more. It was also a nice rally over the ensuing four days. Will be interesting to see if there is any shift to more bullish acceptance over the weekend but so far it's not looking that way.

#3 jmicou

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Posted 02 February 2007 - 08:10 PM

We had a long thread on this disbelief Monday evening right here on the forum - from the record number of bears in the Tickersense blogger poll, the lack of excitement among the Rydexers, to the continual record short selling of the public vs. NYSE members and more. It was also a nice rally over the ensuing four days. Will be interesting to see if there is any shift to more bullish acceptance over the weekend but so far it's not looking that way.


I would prefer it stay that way.

#4 arbman

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Posted 02 February 2007 - 09:10 PM

Did the risk measured by the credit spreads increased on this rally?

S&P credit spreads show increased risk on the Fed day, I wonder what it says now, they always update too late...

Gary, what bond or fund are you using to track the credit spreads in between the junk bonds yields and the Treasury yields?

#5 Gary Smith

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Posted 02 February 2007 - 11:24 PM

Did the risk measured by the credit spreads increased on this rally?

S&P credit spreads show increased risk on the Fed day, I wonder what it says now, they always update too late...

Gary, what bond or fund are you using to track the credit spreads in between the junk bonds yields and the Treasury yields?


Kisa, as you noted spreads did widen on Fed day but narrowed back yesterday and some more today. I realize spreads are at or near historical lows, but it wouldn't surprise me to see them narrow a lot further - maybe to 2.25% - 2.35% - before this bubble bursts.

Being a holder of junk (22% of my capital) I don't track the spreads as closely as monitoring the daily price movement of junk bonds via a basket of six funds. Legg Mason (LMHYX) Northern (NHFIX) Janus (JAHYX) Federated (FHYTX) the old Strong now Wells Fargo (STHYX) and the one that is most representative of the overall junk market T. Rowe Price (PRHYX)

Junk is the most trend persistent creature in the investment world and since mid August it has been an almost daily march to one historical high after another on a total return basis which includes the accrual of daily dividends.

Edited by Gary Smith, 02 February 2007 - 11:27 PM.


#6 arbman

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 03:55 AM

Thank you very much.