Jump to content



Photo

csco Tuesday and possible scorch thoughts?


  • Please log in to reply
3 replies to this topic

#1 endisnear

endisnear

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 439 posts

Posted 02 February 2007 - 10:56 PM

Goldman came out w/a downgrade a couple of wks ago and today upgrades.... fishy... any thoughts mkt could scorch.... lots of oex puts...what impact if CSCO kills it...? Any thoughts... could report some good #s and be the best short op ever... went short again on qs last wk...a litttle worried..

#2 Iblayz

Iblayz

    Member

  • TT Patron+
  • 1,033 posts

Posted 03 February 2007 - 11:16 AM

Anything is possible with CSCO the wonderpuppy. But.... Expectations were high for INTC and the stock had gained significantly prior..... Expectations were high for MSFT and the stock had gained significantly prior..... Expectations were high for GOOG and the stock had gained significantly prior..... None ot the three reports were bad but.....nothing happened. The only real difference here is that CSCO has pulled back some. Maybe, just maybe, somebody out there understands that it means something for Techland when 80% of the Semi's warn (some repeatedly).

#3 endisnear

endisnear

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 439 posts

Posted 03 February 2007 - 12:16 PM

Anything is possible with CSCO the wonderpuppy. But....



Expectations were high for INTC and the stock had gained significantly prior.....

Expectations were high for MSFT and the stock had gained significantly prior.....

Expectations were high for GOOG and the stock had gained significantly prior.....



None ot the three reports were bad but.....nothing happened. The only real difference here is that CSCO has pulled back some.



Maybe, just maybe, somebody out there understands that it means something for Techland when 80% of the Semi's warn (some repeatedly).


but they're still pulling magical goldilocks econ numbers out of their behinds at will. I think they're ready to drop the hammer down after earnings is over with some good ole oil supply disruptions....bringing oil up to 70 very quickly. Right now, they want one final sqeeze...imo

#4 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 03 February 2007 - 11:55 PM

The equity P/C premium ratio is 0.84, that's high, it's been much higher during this rally from the lows (over 1 for weeks), so it doesn't say another 30-40 SPX move, but it is still high to say that a scorch of about 5-10 SPX sort seems quite likely. It will be interesting to find out what the reaction will be to such a rally, my guess is the bullish speculation will soar within days. My guess is a further rally will be of to short more variety. However, a decline straight for a day or two will be probably heavily shorted, I will step aside in that case and cover one more time and wait till the middle of the month to rebuild the positions. I am not going after a crash... :) - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 03 February 2007 - 11:59 PM.