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Melt Up in Progress?


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#1 fib_1618

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 03:38 PM

Slamma Jamma or Slamma Ramma?? (ding dong)

You be the judge and jury.

Fib

NYSE & PM Breadth Data - 2/2/07

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#2 mss

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 04:11 PM

You be the judge and jury.
Fib

:)
My chart is not as fancy as your's, but it suggests we will know soon. The BOP (money flow) will break the yellow TL, as price has, or it will turn down. If it turns down odds are we get a correction, not a crash. The judge is still sitting on the bench and the jury is still out, JMO. B)

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mss
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#3 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 04:30 PM

Melt Up in Progress?

i posted the following in nov just days before a one day plunge in the ndx of about 40+ pts

nov 20th
20day intraday 30 min chart on the dow bears an uncanny resemblance to the nasdaq of 1999, ie a running
correction, if so, pullbacks will be very shallow and once the top of the channel is broken, the dow should run to
atleast 12500 within the next day or so.


my point is that the dow has a running correction setup in the daily chart that certainly supports your meltup scenario and projects to 13.5K+, but i'm feeling the same emotions i felt that day and i just don't trust my emotions or that running correction setup. The dow has yet to "show me the money" by breaking above the running correction trendline, if it does that in the next few days, i'll be the most foaming at the mouth bull on this board, until then, i am on crash alert.
*previously known as pnfwave

#4 vitaminm

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 04:57 PM

http://en.wikipedia....hi_Slamma_Jamma
vitaminm

#5 jmicou

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 05:15 PM

It would be interesting to see historical charts of certain timeframes as compared to now. For example, these charts from Decision Point:
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Edited by jmicou, 03 February 2007 - 05:22 PM.


#6 fib_1618

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 05:49 PM

The BOP (money flow) will break the yellow TL, as price has, or it will turn down. If it turns down odds are we get a correction, not a crash.

Yes, we are in many ways at the same juncture that we saw back in the August 2006 period. But the question now becomes, especially since the composite NYSE advance/decline line is not retreating as it usually does as the market starts to feel the weight of a cyclical force such as the 40 week cycle, can the BOP move higher than .30 under such conditons? Is this something that has been done before? Or simply stated, what would this forecast for the SPX if something like this were to happen?

i posted the following in nov just days before a one day plunge in the ndx of about 40+ pts

QUOTE nov 20th
20day intraday 30 min chart on the dow bears an uncanny resemblance to the nasdaq of 1999, ie a running
correction, if so, pullbacks will be very shallow and once the top of the channel is broken, the dow should run to
at least 12500 within the next day or so.

Well, the Dow is up some 500 points from the time of your post, so I wouldn't be too hard on yourself.

And worrying about what an index of under performing stocks does (or did) is not a direct reflection of the current market dynamics. Besides, after having already had a 4 month run up, would it be fair to expect something more from the market based on what is historically "normal"?

Whether this is a running correction or not, really doesn't matter. What does matter is how the market has been able to correct internally over the last 3 months, relieved a highly "overbought" condition, and is now "breaking some rules" in a very positive way that have shown a consistent track record of reliability.

So, let's take this a step further....here are this weeks cumulative charts to compare the current juncture and that of the August and November 2006 periods. How do they compare with the current time frame as far as the advance/decline data, MCO and MCSUM pattern structures? And then using this same data, what would you consider to be the technical expectation in this overall comparable relationship? Furthermore, after having 2/3 months of seeing the internal dynamics of the market correct the excesses that were generated over the previous 4/5 months (just as we saw in the May to July period), would that put us in a situation to where adding on any further energy to what has already been incorporated in the system generate something "different" as it would directly relate to the pricing structures being measured by this same information?

Again, the data is there...it is what it is...you be the judge and jury.

Fib

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Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#7 eminimee

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 05:59 PM

I want to see what happens with some of my personal "funny stuff"....and of course my oex. Right now OEX has a double top in play as of Friday...we'll see what happens. A few daily closes above 672.50/674 area then my take on an IT correction now comes under pressure.

But a turn down of the 34ema (NYMO) would be deadly for bulls.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=2&dy=0&i=p05809298768&a=74401962&r=2234.png

#8 CLK

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:26 PM

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#9 mss

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 06:26 PM

The BOP (money flow) will break the yellow TL, as price has, or it will turn down. If it turns down odds are we get a correction, not a crash.

Yes, we are in many ways at the same juncture that we saw back in the August 2006 period. But the question now becomes, especially since the composite NYSE advance/decline line is not retreating as it usually does as the market starts to feel the weight of a cyclical force such as the 40 week cycle, can the BOP move higher than .30 under such conditons? Is this something that has been done before? Or simply stated, what would this forecast for the SPX if something like this were to happen?

Again, the data is there...it is what it is...you be the judge and jury.

Fib

Don't have a chart, handy, that goes back further than '02. Take a look and BOP does not excede or get to .30 in this bull leg. Therefore we have a question that is somewhat abigous.
Time will tell quick enough - faster than anybody - so we wait. ;)

Posted Image

Best to you and your dark "rags" and their forcast. :D
mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#10 fib_1618

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Posted 03 February 2007 - 07:15 PM

But a turn down of the 34ema (NYMO) would be deadly for bulls.

Would it? Can a market "die" when there is record levels of money in the system that can (and have) soften any surprises that may come about? Thinking back on all we've seen in the last four years in the geopolitical arena and this makes this statement all too clear.

And although it's a good practice to plan for any or all surprises when it comes to the markets, it's not very productive to ones trading account to plan on such forecasts until the underlying dynamics of the markets are ripe for such things to happen as we would like them to.

So let's forget the price chart for a moment and look at what causes any product or service to move in one direction or the other - money flow as referenced by the cumulative charts. If the demand for product, such as stocks, continues to accelerate, and this therefore reduces the supply available for purchase of this same product, what should be the direct effect of price itself? Would it move up in an orderly fashion, or would it become more volatile?

Take a look and BOP has not exceed or get to .30 in this bull leg. Therefore we have a question that is somewhat ambiguous.

This was my point, it hasn't moved to .30 at all since the 2002 lows.

But at the same time, the BOP has never moved back up to the .20 area without seeing some sort of a test of the zero line first during this same time span which would be something "different".

Not so ambiguous anymore, is it?

So, I ask again, what would this forecast for the SPX if something like this were to happen based on your personal familiarity of this indicator? Maybe a reference to the previous highs of 2003, and what it produced later on, would help in forecasting such analysis?

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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