12 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

and 6pack got bulled up...

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

Edited by xD&Cox, 05 February 2007 - 07:10 PM.

[BigBadBear]

your point ?

[A-ha]

your friends are long and strong

[BigBadBear]

again something I already know...since July '06 actually. Pls advise us if you move your stops

[fib_1618]

I dunno xD...with a 10 day OEX put/call ratio at 1.68, and the trend has been high readings during the entire price advance since last summer, I would be a bit on the cautious side as far as any topping considerations are concerned. But what do I know? Fib

[A-ha]

I dunno xD...with a 10 day OEX put/call ratio at 1.68, and the trend has been high readings during the entire price advance since last summer, I would be a bit on the cautious side as far as any topping considerations are concerned.

But what do I know?

Fib

Aside from classic 10 DMA triggered IT tops that we all follow, I also have a different read on entire OEX P/C 10 DMA series of the last 8 years.

There is an apparent and perfect cyclic pattern on OEX P/C 10DMA chart which is not visible on this 3 year chart. This pattern forms a simple cyclic curve that nailed 2000 top and 2002 bottom. And it was approaching another bull market top level last time I checked in fall...as every small top on SPX have been associated with higher OEX P/C ratios.

I had posted that chart a few months ago on my blog, I will look for it now. These higher OEX P/C ratios that don't generate IT selloff indeed part of that large cyclic pattern which implies that these people are increasingly expecting a bull market top and they are right about those big tops and bottoms as good as they have been on IT tops.

Edited by xD&Cox, 05 February 2007 - 08:12 PM.

[jmicou]

I dunno xD...with a 10 day OEX put/call ratio at 1.68, and the trend has been high readings during the entire price advance since last summer, I would be a bit on the cautious side as far as any topping considerations are concerned.

But what do I know?

Fib

Aside from classic 10 DMA triggered IT tops that we all follow, I also have a different read on entire OEX P/C 10 DMA series of the last 8 years.

There is an apparent and perfect cyclic pattern on OEX P/C 10DMA chart which is not visible on this 3 year chart. This pattern forms a simple cyclic curve that nailed 2000 top and 2002 bottom. And it was approaching another bull market top level last time I checked in fall...as every small top on SPX have been associated with higher OEX P/C ratios.

I had posted that chart a few months ago on my blog, I will look for it now. These higher OEX P/C ratios that don't generate IT selloff indeed part of that large cyclic pattern which implies that these people are increasingly expecting a bull market top and they are right about those big tops and bottoms as good as they have been on IT tops.

From a set of charts of mine, since July 02, if one were to draw a line for the OEX P/C ratio to hit then exceed the 2.5 level, and to look in conjunction at the OEX MCSUM as to whether it is above or below the 0 line, and whether or not it is rising or falling, it helpful as to analyze if the current dynamic is bullish or bearish. (Maybe I should diagram this sentence before posting .)

regards,

jmicou

[A-ha]

Found it....

This chart is from mid-September. Note that 2000 top coincided with OEX P/C 10 DMA ratios as high as 2 or more. And also note that ratios between 1.5 - 2 didnt generate large IT sell offs as SPX approached to the top.

We are seeing similar behavior, high ratios since September double top area didnt produce large selloffs.

[arbman]

The top could be within weeks though, not days or hours according to this chart... - kisa

[A-ha]

One thing you are missing is that this is not a high volatility top like 2000.... It is likely that this top will come on lower P/C ratio. In fact it is likely that that peak of 1.75 in late September was the top for this OEX P/C cycle. As you may have noticed, 10 DMA of OEX P/C hit 2+ at the beginning of 2000 which was 2 months early. So that September reading of 1.75 could very well be THE top and this first lower impulse OEX P/C currently forming may trigger the first trust of this coming bear market.