7 replies to this topic

[nimblebear]

Go to Zillow.com and check out prices in your area. My house value peaked in September 06, and has been down ever since. Cyclically this is usually an up period beginning in January. Its dropped $40000 or almost 10%. Thats quite a slide in that short a period of time. Especially since houses in this area have gradually increased over the past decade. That's a lot of equity that has evaporated if you do this across the country. I think its premature for Fed or anyone else to say the housing market has troughed. The trough appears temporary. I give it about 6 months from September before the equity markets start to figure out this isn't going to go away, and will likely affect GDP fairly significantly in the near future.

[TrillionDollarMan]

Market has "bottomed" in Orlando, FL. I could have bought a townhome in the DARK DAYS LOW from October to December....and sold it for 30% more today. That was THE LOW tick, imho. Will another shoe drop? Dunno. As Richard Russell hase been asking THE ETERNAL QUESTION of the markets for over 50 years: "Will it or won't it?" TDM

[jawndissedi]

Market has "bottomed" in Orlando, FL. I could have bought a townhome in the DARK DAYS LOW from October to December....and sold it for 30% more today. That was THE LOW tick, imho.

Will another shoe drop?

Dunno. As Richard Russell hase been asking THE ETERNAL QUESTION of the markets for over 50 years: "Will it or won't it?"

TDM

Bottomed?

Vacancy rates soar

But hey, what do these guys know? Grab that zillow zestimate and take it down to your local subprime dealer and HELOC the ranch to the max. It's the American way . . .

[endisnear]

Market has "bottomed" in Orlando, FL. I could have bought a townhome in the DARK DAYS LOW from October to December....and sold it for 30% more today. That was THE LOW tick, imho.

Will another shoe drop?

Dunno. As Richard Russell hase been asking THE ETERNAL QUESTION of the markets for over 50 years: "Will it or won't it?"

TDM

Bottomed?

Vacancy rates soar

But hey, what do these guys know? Grab that zillow zestimate and take it down to your local subprime dealer and HELOC the ranch to the max. It's the American way . . .

Homes in most suburban areas of Houston peaked in price/sq ft in July 05 including my home sold in Feb 06. Some mid and downtown areas of Houston still increasing but its spotty. Overall, this game is over and its just a matter of time before people start lowering asking price significantly just to get out of it as inventories build by the day.

A colleague in Houston moved from Tampa to where he has a home purchased about a yr ago...for about 250k...he could sell it for about the same but would eat 15k in commissions...he's not so financially bright IMO and is waiting for summer to list it b/c he thinks mkt will come back by then...i told him he'll be under another 20k by then and more if hurricane season is bad...

I know several people w.homes in suburbs on mkt in Houston refusing to lower asking price b/c they'd be underwater, including ex wife who has my old house which she'd break even after commissions after purchasing in late 2000. Others bot in 2002-04...builders are cutting throats of existing home sellers w/huge concessions and free upgrades...but builders are hurting as well. Many over 60% KB homes contracts cancelling according to a friend in sales.

Just found out today my idiot brother bot a 850k house in LA hills (2000 sq. ft) which needs much work on an ARM....he flipped out when he didn't make anything on his last house after holding it for a yr...like many J6Ps, he has no concept of possibly losing money on RE or it dropping in value.

[pdx5]

All I know is from watching activity in my sub-division. Upto 8 months ago houses were selling real fast at inflated prices. Now they are just sitting there with the FOR SALE signs gathering moss. May be the spring will bring some sales, but the prices would have to be lowered 10%+ IMHO.

[endisnear]

All I know is from watching activity in my sub-division.
Upto 8 months ago houses were selling real fast at
inflated prices. Now they are just sitting there with the
FOR SALE signs gathering moss.

May be the spring will bring some sales, but the prices
would have to be lowered 10%+ IMHO.

Planned to move to Vancouver after selling house in Feb 06 but a sales job fell through last minute due to my driving record...too many tickets...rents and cost of living very comparable to Houston..

Friend bot a new 280k 2400 ft 1.5 story hardyplank house, tiny lot, outside Wilsonville S of Portland. Prob bot the peak in March 06. RE was going up 20% across the board for last few yrs....

Guys like this who bot top will feel some pain when their home drops in value 15-20% within a yr or so.

St Helens sure could change the equation.

[eminimee]

If you are going to buy a house in Vancouver....wait until after the Olympics. lol

[pdx5]

endisnear.... Vancouver is a great little town....not too big, not too small. We still have no state income tax, but don't know how long with tax and spend people in control in Olympia. Across the Columbia river is Oregon and they still have 0 sales tax, again don't know how long. It does not rain a lot in inches but the fine drizzle is present november through april, almost every day. The summers are just magnificent with low humidity and moderate temperatures. Best thing I like here is how friendly the people are compared to Illinois and California.