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#1 airedale88

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 05:00 AM

three charts....

Hurst identified and labeled the 4 yr cycle as a nominal 4.5 yr cycle that averaged from 48 to 54 months in length. this cycle was divided into three nominal 18 month cycles, also labeled as the nominal 78/80 wk cycle. the nominal 18 month cycle is composed of two 9 month cycles, the nominal 39/40 wk cycles.

this SPX monthly chart indicates the last two complete 4.5 yr cycles of 54 and 53 months. Hurst phasing analysis tools were applied to confirm the three nominal 18 month cycles contained in each 4.5 yr cycle. they are satisfactorily evident on a visual basis also, though that is not always a vital feature in a phasing analysis. the current 4.5 yr cycle, starting from march 03, shows the first of it's three 18 month cycles bottoming in august 04. this was 74 wks from the march low, slightly shorter than the nominal model length, but well within Hurst's principle of variation. the next 18 month low which phasing methods indicate as the end of jan into early feb 06, is not well defined. one can locate a nominal 9 month low at the end of april 05, that fits well in the nominal model as the first of two 9 month cycles in the 2nd of the three 18 month cycles. there are two visually prominent lows in oct 05 and june 06, the first is only 6 months from the april 9 month low and the second is 14 months, both samples well outside the normal variation accepted in phasing. these are higher amplitude smaller (than 9 or 18 month) cycle lows that saw fundamental interaction. the end of jan beginning of feb 07 is the nominal 18 month and 2nd 9 month cycle low. in current time feb 07 is the 13th month in the final 18 month cycle leading into a 4.5 yr cycle low.

SPX monthly chart

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. this next chart is the daily SPX from feb 07( the location of the last 18 and 9 month low). all cycles noted are nests of lows containing lows for all smaller harmonic cycles. thus feb 07 is also a nominal 20 wk low (half span of the 9 month cycle). this chart labels cycles from 20 wk down to 2.5 wks (approc 12 to 14 weekdays). even with some minor slight cycle variation, the harmonic cycles have been very consistent. this consistentsy over time is normal for all length cycles which supports the conclusion that the oct 05 and jun 06 lows were cycle lows that saw fundamental interaction, giving them visual prominence only. early nov 06, marked on this chart as a 20 wk nest of lows, is also the 9 month cycle low from the jan feb 06 low.

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. estimated future low time windows (not price windows).

this final chart applies the current phasing along with recent sample length of the nominal cycles to arrive at likely time windows for the upcoming 20 wk nest of cycle lows (march) and the nominal 4.5 yr nest of lows july +/-.. there are currently no indications that the cyclic trend has weakened enough to expect a top very near term. right translated cycle highs continue. no downside projections can be made currently. Hurst analysis indicates that sigma el, his term for the sum of all cycles and smooth long term fundamentals larger than the cycle examined (in this case the 4.5 yr) remains strong to the upside.

i remain long in es's in futures accounts and various etfs in a foundation account but with a wary eye for a change in trend. feb 07 marking the 47 month of a 48 to 54 month cycle keeps me on my toes.

as smaller cycle bottom out i'll update any changes i see. these charts should be a general timing map.

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airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

#2 The End

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 07:18 AM

Very nice work airdale88. Tanks for sharing.
NONE of what I type should be taken as financial advice.

#3 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 07:53 AM

I agree. Very nice. Mark

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#4 TradeMark

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 08:47 AM

Very nice work. Clear explanation and well documented. Thank you for posting TM

#5 traderpaul

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 12:14 PM

Airedale88, On the monthly cycle.....The monthly lows are the 25th of the month....
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#6 airedale88

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Posted 06 February 2007 - 01:38 PM

Airedale88, On the monthly cycle.....The monthly lows are the 25th of the month....



traderpaul i'll assume the "monthly cycle" you mention is a reference to the end of month/beginning of month tendency toward strength. that's a fundamental interaction and has nothing to do with analyzing overall market direction throught the use of cyclical trends.
airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England