7 replies to this topic

[James Quillian]

The 13 year T-Bill rate quietly closed at a 6 year high today.
The yield curve has been inverted since October 06.

[arbman]

How the market rallied as far as it did with this yield curve since last July beats me!

There is no new liquidity under this market, or new bid, it is just that the large institutions are not unloading (yet)...

Here, would you believe if I tell you the market rallied over 10% from the lows with this yield curve? All the money came from the death of the commodity speculation, it seems...

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^IRX&t=1y&q=&l=off&z=l&c=^FVX,^TNX,^TYX&.png

PS. under the normal conditions, this market should crash... we will see how it goes.

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 06 February 2007 - 08:39 PM.

[dcengr]

How the market rallied as far as it did with this yield curve since last July beats me!

There is no new liquidity under this market, or new bid, it is just that the large institutions are not unloading (yet)...

Here, would you believe if I tell you the market rallied over 10% from the lows with this yield curve? All the money came from the death of the commodity speculation, it seems...

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=^IRX&t=1y&q=&l=off&z=l&c=^FVX,^TNX,^TYX&.png

PS. under the normal conditions, this market should crash... we will see how it goes.

- kisa

Actually, if you look at 1929, the entire run up was marked with an inverted yield curve, I believe. If you look at the price pattern, we could be in early 1929 (ie we still got far more run up).

If we slosh around here sideways for a few months and start to take off again, then you know what will happen near end of this year. But a 10-20% crash after another 10-20% run up doesn't mean much.

[James Quillian]

How the market rallied as far as it did with this yield curve since last July beats me!

There is no new liquidity under this market, or new bid, it is just that the large institutions are not unloading (yet)...

Here, would you believe if I tell you the market rallied over 10% from the lows with this yield curve? All the money came from the death of the commodity speculation, it seems...
PS. under the normal conditions, this market should crash... we will see how it goes.

- kisa

Kisa:
I am practically alone in the view that the market is being seriously manipulated. "Mystery Bids"
It must look normal to everyone else.
Money managers get paid 20% on paper profits. There is a strong incentive to keep prices moving higher and an even stronger motivation to keep them from dropping.
Econmists in general pay no mind to incentives. I am an exception.
With the kind of incentives there are to artifically push stocks higher, I would be surprised if markets were not manipulated.
Some consortium of big money traders has learned that if they stablize prices, the public, short sellers and everyone else will bid prices up. The market will drop when the public, short sellers and everyone else stop performing their role.

James

[nimblebear]

How the market rallied as far as it did with this yield curve since last July beats me!

There is no new liquidity under this market, or new bid, it is just that the large institutions are not unloading (yet)...

Here, would you believe if I tell you the market rallied over 10% from the lows with this yield curve? All the money came from the death of the commodity speculation, it seems...
PS. under the normal conditions, this market should crash... we will see how it goes.

- kisa

Kisa:
I am practically alone in the view that the market is being seriously manipulated. "Mystery Bids"
It must look normal to everyone else.
Money managers get paid 20% on paper profits. There is a strong incentive to keep prices moving higher and an even stronger motivation to keep them from dropping.
Econmists in general pay no mind to incentives. I am an exception.
With the kind of incentives there are to artifically push stocks higher, I would be surprised if markets were not manipulated.
Some consortium of big money traders has learned that if they stablize prices, the public, short sellers and everyone else will bid prices up. The market will drop when the public, short sellers and everyone else stop performing their role.

James

You may be alone, but at least with an inverted yield curve you know where this will end. The yield curve inversion is staying high and long. I still think its a good indicator for forecasting a downturn. I do think one thing affecting prices is the massive hedging. At some point, one domino is going to fall, and the rest will rip loose. Who knows when?

[vitaminm]

Stock Market Valuation: SPVI


http://www.martincap...pgs/CH_spvi.HTM

[Rogerdodger]

I am practically alone in the view that the market is being seriously manipulated.

I thought it was just me.

[pdx5]

As oil is recovering nicely, T-bill rates will only climb higher. T-bond rates are not climbing in tandem because the smart money knows we are headed for a big-[bleeep] depression in the long tun.

Edited by pdx5, 07 February 2007 - 01:57 PM.