Jump to content



Photo

YES. Yes we have topped!!!


  • Please log in to reply
12 replies to this topic

#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

    www.TTHQ.com

  • Admin
  • 8,597 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:08 AM

ok, maybe not, but 5 topics on topping today...... what does it mean?


Topping process complete?

Have We Topped?

Have we topped?

hAVE wE tOPPED?

Have we topped?

#2 S.I.M.O.N.

S.I.M.O.N.

    SIMONForecast

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 802 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:11 AM

ok, maybe not, but 5 topics on topping today...... what does it mean?


Topping process complete?

Have We Topped?

Have we topped?

hAVE wE tOPPED?

Have we topped?

the recognition wave is here, meltup in progress......no more pullbacks....straight up....buy...buy...buy..
twm....buy...twm....buy..
*previously known as pnfwave

#3 BigBadBear

BigBadBear

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,007 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:17 AM

cause its repeated 5 times doesnt mean it hasnt happened.

#4 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:22 AM

Are you trying to top it? Actually at least 2 threads are in answer to XD's. The 4th from Greenie is just adding to the fun. And now TTHQ staff wants to be in the party. So please s-TOP it! LOL!

#5 maineman

maineman

    maineman

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,987 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:27 AM

I only count 4 tops
Posted Image
He who laughs laughs laughs laughs.

My Blog -Maineman Market Advice

#6 jawndissedi

jawndissedi

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,018 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:31 AM

I only count 4 tops
Posted Image

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.

#7 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:32 AM

It's the grown-up way of asking:

Are we there yet?

#8 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

    www.TTHQ.com

  • Admin
  • 8,597 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:38 AM

It's the grown-up way of asking:

Are we there yet?



When I grow up, I want to be a fire engine.

#9 Wallcrawler

Wallcrawler

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,685 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:42 AM

Just to add to the topic I thought zentrader thoughts from his blog were rather interesting....

Wrong Way Corrigans

Tonight let's take a look at another indicator from my arsenal of proprietary sentiment gauges. I like to call this one the WWCI, which stands for "Wrong Way Corrigans Indicator". I call it this because it gives a very accurate read on the sentiment of the small retail dumb money crowd that is quite consistently wrong on the market. The WWCI is derived by using raw options data from various exchanges in such a way as to segregate out the trades made by the group of investors that I would deem "Wrong Way Corrigans".

The chart above shows the current configuration of of the WWCI. The sell signals occur when the blue line rises to the upper red line and the buy signals occur when the blue line falls to the lower green line. As the chart shows, the last sell signal occurred in January 2006, and then a new buy signal occurred in June 2006. Since then the indicator has not only failed to give a sell signal but has not even made it back to a neutral reading. Currently it is on the verge of giving a repeat buy signal. And for those chartists out there the pattern in this indicator since June 2006 looks an awful lot like a "cup and handle" formation, which would indicate a pending explosive increase in bullish sentiment (like the one I have been predicting here of late).

------------------------------------------------------
(And his comments on Hedge Funds....)

Hedge Funds All Beared Up

The monthly Van Hedge Fund Sentiment Poll for February shows:

20% Bulls
50% Bears

So we have the Lowrisk Poll showing small investors heavily bearish, and now the Hedge Fund Poll showing that Hedge Fund managers are heavily bearish. The bear camp is looking awfully crowded these days.

------------------------------------------------------

The Forest for the Trees

Sometimes as traders we get so caught up in what the market is going to do over the next few days, hours, minutes, (seconds???), that we lose track of where the market is in the big picture. In other words we "can't see the forest for the trees". Well tonight I'm going to take a step back from the very short-term "trees" to take a good hard look at that forest.

The first chart shown above is my proprietary indicator called the Speculate-O-Meter (for a brief description of this indicator see this previous post). On this chart of the Speculate-O-Meter, I have annotated some descriptions taken from the well known "cycle of market emotions" shown in the second chart. While the Speculate-O-Meter is more choppy than the idealized market cycle chart shown below it, there are striking similarities between the two charts as there should be. And, when viewing these two charts in tandem it becomes astoundingly clear that this current bull rally is still in the very early stages of the cycle from despondency to euphoria, or as I like to put it from fear to greed.

Based on my Speculate-O-Meter, the market emotional cycle has been in the hope phase, and should be entering the relief phase very shortly if not already there. And what will be the source of this "relief"? I expect it will come on several fronts:

1) Relief that oil and commodity prices are falling and that inflation is tame, thus relief that no more interest rate hikes are needed

2) Relief that the housing market has stabilized and the economy is not going over the cliff.

3) Relief that the bear market is over when the S&P500 hits a new all-time high.

And there may be many other reasons for relief, but in short the relief will be a result of widely held pessimistic expectations not coming to pass. Then after the relief phase comes optimism, excitement, thrill, and finally euphoria before the bull market ends. And if you are an aggressive growth investor these final stages tend to be very rewarding. So, if we get a pullback tomorrow lets try not to get to caught up in those trees.
$ No more effort is required to aim high in life, or to demand excellence and success than is required to accept failure and poverty. $ ~ Anonomous

#10 Sentient Being

Sentient Being

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,262 posts

Posted 09 February 2007 - 11:50 AM

Just Slit My Throat, don't torture me.
In the end we retain from our studies only that which we practically apply.

~ Johann Wolfgang Von Goethe ~