4 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Posted Yesterday:

Nasdaq Consolidation - 2496 target, Between two pivots - Possible Bearish Resolution

Obviously we got the bearish resolution in spades off that test today...



Today's high left the door open for one more run to retest 2496.93... I expect a test of support at 2438.11 off a test of the low of the last day of volume 1/18. We may open higher or lower on Monday but I'd expect a test of the 2438 before a new rally starts. I've been looking over SOX charts individually. Bullish Springs are going to be set up slightly below the lows we made today. We had a bullish spring in AMD and MU today, I expect INTC, AMAT, KLAC etc to test their volume support lows on the daily and spring as a group. I would expect a robust runup off these lows. Now today's action was another nail in the Bulls coffin for sure, at least the way we closed today... but I expect one more run up before these lows we make on this decline (2438) are retested and either consolidated or broken...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

Posted on 2/5/2007:

Outlook for daily candle at present... Break Low on Volume, Gap down intact....Target $460.

We're close to that number now.

GOOG is also setting up a bullish spring off a test of that 460.37 High Volume Spike low from October. So just when the board turns bearish, here I am saying rally . I look for harmony back up next week on Nasdaq as GOOG and the chips rally off their high volume swing lows...

I expect GOOG to test this $460 pivot on lighter volume and then spring back to $484.64 the high of that volume spike.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[SemiBizz]

Nasdaq - Price and Volume Trend for Februaries..., Pullbacks on lighter volumes...

Everyone last weekend was expecting a runaway rally to begin when I posted the above... so-called "meltup". It's really much more likely to happen in March than February. We'll get a light volume pullback per the script in February and a bullish spring going into March. We should test 2394(Jan Low) at a minimum for a February Low to set up the bullish spring. The size of the bullish spring is dependent upon the size of the retracement. Theoretically we can go all the way down and retest the last monthly candle low of extreme volume from March 2006 at 2239.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 10 February 2007 - 01:41 PM.

[KCScott]

Nasdaq - Price and Volume Trend for Februaries..., Pullbacks on lighter volumes...

Everyone last weekend was expecting a runaway rally to begin when I posted the above... so-called "meltup". It's really much more likely to happen in March than February. We'll get a light volume pullback per the script in February and a bullish spring going into March. We should test 2394(Jan Low) at a minimum for a February Low to set up the bullish spring. The size of the bullish spring is dependent upon the size of the retracement. Theoretically we can go all the way down and retest the last monthly candle low of extreme volume from March 2006 at 2239.

I'm in agreement - I think the churn will continue at least for one more cycle

I'm targeting QID short (bearish on the bear) around 54.20+

[SemiBizz]

Why not just buy QLD? Overall it should be an interesting week ahead, especially if these chips take off...