2 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

unfortunately fridays dump was recognized by the dumb money at the end of the day ....ive never seen this group of people early in a substantial move.... it is a consistent statistical fact... if they got it right, this will be the first time and it wouldnt surprise me too as no statistic can stay %100 consistent forever. this has nothing to do with sentiment or fading, i dont use sentiment in my trading except options data, this is about taking advantage of trading psychology as some says...and i do check my own feelings from time to time too... however there is likely more downside in the near term as this obvious reversal will scare more herd in coming day(s)....so i am not confident at all as i am massively short on futures....i ll be on watch... there is nothing changed in my long term view, i think the bull market is over or about to end, and i expect a bear market that will last minimum 9 months... i do not have a slightest doubt that SOX can only get worse from here on, regardless how it was in a bloody bear market for 9 months now. i believe the market going through a major structural change. I believe at the end, sox will no longer be the heaviest component of ndx... i will be trading those emini positions i opened recently when necessary, while maintaining a core position in spoos

Edited by xD&Cox, 10 February 2007 - 07:15 PM.

[eminimee]

what I don't like is that lightening rarely strikes twice in the same spot......the difference last year may be that ndx popped out of wedge then failed.....may not pop this time and the diamond top is good. twt

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70060006851&a=44828416&r=1751.png

[arbman]

unfortunately fridays dump was recognized by the dumb money at the end of the day

The OCC totals and premiums for last week as 2/9 are off the charts again...

The OCC reported the equity open buys for the puts and calls as $11B vs ~$4B with the premiums as $436 vs $234. This is a premium ratio of 0.5368 despite the decline on Friday. I do not know what caused such a huge bullish jump. But, this reading was one of the highest bullish reading for years and similar to the January spikes, I posted the historic charts 2 wks ago. I think the majority expected a blow off going into this week...

Today's equity P/C ratios are way too high, but OEX P/C ratio is still at the bearish territory and the implied volatilies are rising. Last but not least, the dealers did not borrow heavily today, I wonder the shorting is from the dealers...

(the securities lending from FRBNY)

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 12 February 2007 - 02:20 PM.