5 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

going to zero...ch11

http://stockcharts.c...i=0&r=9654&.png


will be like pxlw whose ipo was the best bullish trade i could do during the bear market

http://stockcharts.c...i=0&r=9654&.png

[greenie]

Don't you need some debt to go to ch11? BTW, can you take a look at the gold/silver sector? Everything I am seeing in the charts suggests lower, not higher, prices for gold. Equities are bit out of whack with metal. Leading equities like HMY are not leading any more. In silver, CDE is in the slump, while PAAS is flying. Too many divergences. Lower gold=higher dollar, signs of a liquidity crunch? What is your opinion of the sector?

[A-ha]

Don't you need some debt to go to ch11?

BTW, can you take a look at the gold/silver sector? Everything I am seeing in the charts suggests lower, not higher, prices for gold. Equities are bit out of whack with metal. Leading equities like HMY are not leading any more. In silver, CDE is in the slump, while PAAS is flying. Too many divergences.

Lower gold=higher dollar, signs of a liquidity crunch?

What is your opinion of the sector?

they have a gigantic tax debt they are trying to pay for some time...

Regarding Gold, it should normally go down if the broad market falls off the cliff but I have a feeling we may visit the highs after scaring weak bulls... We do have the right configuration overall to keep going substantially lower but there are missing parts. So I think after visiting SPX 1405-1380 area, another divergent rally may put the last nail in the coffin, it would be better if we got more weakness in breath but it is not a must. Crash of 87 came on collapsing dollar, so we may be surprised about gold this time.

Of course these are all distant thoughts at the moment, we will have to see the market action first.

On gold futures chart, looks like gold topped out on friday, at least for a short term....After this coming correction or sell off, if it rallies and breaks out, the next stop is around 695

[greenie]

So I think after visiting SPX 1405-1380 area, another divergent rally may put the last nail in the coffin, it would be better if we got more weakness in breath but it is not a must.

If that happens, your strategy (keep core spoos and trade NDX/RUT eminis) do not make sense to me. If NDX maintains its leadership, most likely NDX will not reach last week's high, but SPX can overshoot its high, but maybe on lower breadth. If SPX shoots to 1473, will you get stopped out from the spoos, or will you hold it at loss because it is part of the overall trade SPX/NDX/RUT futures ?

But I agree it is too early to speculate on these, until the market shows its hands.

Edited by greenie, 10 February 2007 - 10:45 PM.

[A-ha]

Maintaining a core position in SPoos doesnt mean I cant reduce its size or visa versa. But I will trade NQ and ER . As you might have noticed, the initial move on friday was led by ndx and rut. Make no mistake that when we approach some sort of a bottom, NDX will be the one to move first, or at least diverge positively. What good it will be holding NDX full short at that time. I will be trading a large portion of the eminis, when necessary. There will always be time to buy and sell spoos if you already see it coming from nasdaq.

[KCScott]

Greenie, Check the chart on SLV - a very good short 139.5 - 141 Should get there tomorrow