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Is this MSNBC video clip bullish or bearish?


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Poll: Makes you more bullish or bearish?

Do you think the sentiment in this video bullish or bearish?

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#1 arbman

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 03:48 PM

Link to video (sorry you will need internet explorer)

PS. please wait through the short ad that plays in front of the actual interview...

Thanks for your participation...

- kisa

#2 fib_1618

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 04:01 PM

With respect to Mark Haines attitude or Peter Schiff's? With respect to the subject matter or lack of it? Although the clip is not available, I did see it live this morning. Fib

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#3 nimblebear

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 04:09 PM

Link to video (sorry you will need internet explorer)

PS. please wait through the short ad that plays in front of the actual interview...

Thanks for your participation...

- kisa

I posted my thoughts on inflation in my post "Top or long running bull ?" prior to seeing this video.

What a great video !. I think it supports the bullish case, notwithstanding Peter's arguments. I love the "Peter,Peter,Peter" rant. Poor guy got skewered. He may have had a case for a market downturn, but I sure as heck wouldn't want the guy as my lawyer. Gold is simply reflecting the inflation I spoke of. I'd argue that if the gold price drops from here big time, then the market would get creamated. Gold is reflecting pent up demand for a lot of goods and services. If some buthead ramps interest rates up here in the US big time, then gold and the general equities market will tank. JMHO.

The ad for GM was the better part though. Cool beans.
OTIS.

#4 fib_1618

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 04:24 PM

Gold is reflecting pent up demand for a lot of goods and services.

Actually, gold only rallies when there is no place else for excess liquidity to go to...call it a "bypass", a place where high amounts of stimulative cash channel to while waiting to add back to the main "river" of reserves already in the system once those are slowly depleted.

What this means then is that gold is a forecasting tool of future inflationary trends, and this is why when you have times of actual "pocket book" inflation (like last year), gold didn't move higher on the back of this same news...it already predicted it!

I'd argue that if the gold price drops from here big time, then the market would get cremated.

Yes, but it would take an average of 18 months for this to actually happen because of the same reason outlined above.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#5 arbman

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 01:51 AM

Fib, I didn't see your questions, sorry for the late reply, it is the entire video, however you look at it since it is subjective from the validity of the issues raised by the bearish side to the responses given by the bullish side...

Anyway, you see it. I see it as the bullish side becoming numb to the problems and having a blindly accepting attitude that what they didn't kill them so far only made them stronger. I think the participants are passed the point where the bearish views do not matter, everything it bullish...

Whatever happens, the economy is accelerating, it is going to blow off and the Fed will try to inflate away all of the problems and this is not part of the problem, but part of the solution...

I think this is the point of recognition where the insane thinking to cure the problems is getting the sane acceptance as if the whole world must and will be able to go along with the US in their race to inflate away their economic problems despite the signs...

Signs? The US treasuries had the weakest foreign demand during this week's auctions after the apparent saturation over the past 2 yrs.

Signs? The sub-prime debt market is at the mids of tremendous pain.

Signs? The commercial credit growth is slowing after a record expansion.

Signs? Expectations for more inflation when the currency is near the all time lows.

Signs? The operators already sold their speculative positions in January and transfered their inventory to the public in February, but it doesn't matter because everything is bullish...

Signs? Too many, but they don't matter, they are all bullish because the cummulative tick is up and the breath is up and however they are up is all that matters...

- kisa

#6 fib_1618

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:02 AM

Signs? Too many, but they don't matter, they are all bullish because the cumulative tick is up, and the breadth is up, and however they are up, is all that matters...

This is correct - as far as technical trading is concerned, the dynamics and its metrics, this IS all that matters.

All of the other "signs" you've outlined are only contextual in their content and may or may not have any direct baring as to the market's ability to move in one direction or the other at any given point in time.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#7 arbman

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 10:21 AM

This is correct - as far as technical trading is concerned, the dynamics and its metrics, this IS all that matters.


Fib, with all due respect, tracking the velocity of the intermediate term money flow and the market's response is all that matters. I explained them in my "essay", everything else is tape painting and the operators did a fine job as usual going into this IT top...

Here's the proof that the operators again did a fine job...

Date customer_vol firm_vol mm_vol
20061221 0000000005644549 0000001003885649 0000000012265944
20061222 0000000004515983 0000000001492300 0000000004665645
20061226 0000000003383696 0000000502742380 0000000007167160
20061227 0000000004143763 0000000502024399 0000000004715336
20061228 0000000004063198 0000000002232157 0000000004328543
20061229 0000000004865412 0000000493248823 0000000012046759
20070103 0000000008039874 0000000012811993 0000000108131521
20070104 0000000007272263 0000000003183292 0000000007227427
20070105 0000000007268020 0000000008194144 0000000016249109
20070108 0000000006314921 0000000002342527 0000000006459054
20070109 0000000007716235 0000000504745962 0000000010369880
20070110 0000000008394859 0000000504802283 0000000008396439
20070111 0000000009171603 0000000003408240 0000000010853890
20070112 0000000007554460 0000001002765540 0000000007404300
20070116 0000000008301534 0000001254495918 0000000010805130
20070117 0000000008413259 0000000002918519 0000000008366942
20070118 0000000009743465 0000000553790335 0000000010173114
20070119 0000000010540216 0000000883108505 0000000009264119
20070122 0000000008381441 0000000802966436 0000000007828071

20070123 0000000007729995 0000000503065791 0000000007903336
20070124 0000000008036848 0000001002776636 0000000007726681
20070125 0000000007893829 0000000002854885 0000000007808220
20070126 0000000006394574 0000000002494721 0000000007056399
20070129 0000000006096266 0000000002592009 0000000006228151
20070130 0000000005879002 0000000502398465 0000000006038209
20070131 0000000007095536 0000000002845471 0000000007740628
20070201 0000000007104100 0000000003186110 0000000006933308
20070202 0000000006171841 0000000002480455 0000000006093300
20070205 0000000005347311 0000000002041826 0000000005430109
20070206 0000000006549684 0000000503562033 0000000007451333
20070207 0000000006783132 0000001602949155 0000000007349133
20070208 0000000006660641 0000000802839515 0000000007409467
20070209 0000000007918715 0000000004305084 0000000013947009
20070212 0000000007107004 0000000002607464 0000000007376434
20070213 0000000006922754 0000000003736190 0000000009363655
20070214 0000000009101305 0000000004048918 0000000010122747
20070215 0000000007860453 0000000003237126 0000000008407261

The decline in the open interest also confirms this in my humble opinion...

- kisa

#8 fib_1618

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 11:10 AM

tracking the velocity of the intermediate term money flow and the market's response is all that matters

Again, you and I are in agreement with this statement. However, the difference between what you and I determine to be important in this regard is the source of our disagreement within this same context.

And that's OK with me.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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