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I See Risk (finally)


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#1 denleo

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 05:22 PM

Yes. I see risk. My cumulative Tick is finally flashing one potential sell signal. Took profit on the futures. Covered puts. Still long some stocks. I made good money. Now I want to watch. Dear bears, it does not mean the market will go straight down. It simply means the risk of being long is much higher. Will I short? Not sure yet. But I will let you know. Denleo

#2 arbman

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 05:43 PM

I See Risk (finally)


What took you so long? just kidding... :lol:

You might be having a short fuse here to react...

Good luck,
- kisa

#3 esther231

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 10:12 PM

Denleo, thanks for the update.
When I see an adult on a bicycle, I no longer despair for the future of the human race. ~H.G. Wells

#4 fib_1618

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 10:31 PM

My cumulative Tick is finally flashing one potential sell signal.

For the life of me, I still don't understand what you're referring to even after 5 years of advance.

Still looks good to me, in fact, we look to be accelerating again.

Fib

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TICK&p=D&st=2005-10-01&i=p34843539469&a=32256897&r=787.png

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#5 Frac_Man

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Posted 15 February 2007 - 10:44 PM

I have a buy signal with a stop at Thursday's low

Tomorrow will be the key !

Hank










Yes. I see risk. My cumulative Tick is finally flashing one potential sell signal.

Took profit on the futures. Covered puts. Still long some stocks. I made good money. Now I want to watch.

Dear bears, it does not mean the market will go straight down. It simply means the risk of being long is much higher.

Will I short? Not sure yet. But I will let you know.

Denleo



#6 pdx5

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 01:33 AM

With due respect to Fib, I have to agree with denleo...the risk is getting higher....with every 10 point advance in SPX.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule

#7 fib_1618

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 08:08 AM

With due respect to Fib, I have to agree with denleo...the risk is getting higher....with every 10 point advance in SPX.

How about with every 10 point move in the MID, or the Transports, or the unweighted SPX?

Risk is a subjective thing in this business as there is always risk...it's only the degree of risk which is important, and whether there is foundational monetary support for this same risk factor or not.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#8 eminimee

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 09:05 AM

I'm still trying to get my head around a "no risk" buy and hold long at 1450 that draws down to 1435 and profits are taken at 1460ish. I mean no disrespect......I just keep letting that "no risk" phrase get under my skin. I know the market changes on a dime, but if the risk and reward isn't surmised when a trade is entered....don't we run the risk of being in nomansland trying to assess the trade? I'm really not trying to knock style of trading here....to me, analysing risk/reward is the very first thing that should be done. Thoughts or comments?

#9 S.I.M.O.N.

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 09:24 AM

I'm still trying to get my head around a "no risk" buy and hold long at 1450 that draws down to 1435 and profits are taken at 1460ish. I mean no disrespect......I just keep letting that "no risk" phrase get under my skin. I know the market changes on a dime, but if the risk and reward isn't surmised when a trade is entered....don't we run the risk of being in nomansland trying to assess the trade? I'm really not trying to knock style of trading here....to me, analysing risk/reward is the very first thing that should be done. Thoughts or comments?

for someone managing OPM, risk has a completely different meaning.
*previously known as pnfwave

#10 fib_1618

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Posted 16 February 2007 - 09:51 AM

to me, analyzing risk/reward is the very first thing that should be done.

Agreed.

Just like when you sit down at the Blackjack table, you always have to determine the probability to outcome ratio of any bet before placing your money on the table.

The same holds true to stock trading and its off shoots.

This is why you have to have as much technical (and fundamental) information to go on prior to the trade in order to assign a risk factor to the potential loss of the trade, not the gain. For example, when someone asks me a question like "how much money should I put into the market?" or "how much money will I make by buying (or selling) a stock?", my first and only response to this same person is "how much money are you willing to lose in the transaction?" This usually puts them in a position of thought as it goes against the grain of trading and investing, and they become rather standoffish about the whole situation (or they go to someone else who will tell them what they want to hear).

You and I know that there risks in everything we do everyday of our lives, so it's very important to be as educated as we can be before we make any commitments that can affect our bottom line "comfort level". When we trade the market technically, we not only educate ourselves of the current conditions that can make or break a trade, but we can also do this in a way in which most find improbable to accomplish given that the market is a chaotic mechanism with little or no guarantees of being truly successful.

But like you have learned by experience, and those many others who are reading this response have learned, without some sort of guideline to what can make a trade more successful than another - what will make a price of any product move in one direction or the other - is really serving no real purpose to the trader/investor in predetermining the risk factor involved before allowing your hard earned savings be exposed to something in which you ultimately can't control. Because of this, everyone must perform their own due diligence as, like when sign your tax return, you are ultimately responsible for the potential outcome of your actions.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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