14 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

the averages are in the time window for a nominal 3 to 3.5 day cycle low (1/2 span harmonic of the 6/7 day cycle and 1/4 span harmonic of the 2.5 wk low). on a 1/2 hour bar chart this cycle should average approx 39 to 45 bars from low to low but some leeway must be granted due to variation of the cycle lows among indexes and the variations of their component stocks. it won't provide a pinpoint trade just counting bars, but serves as a good indication of a time window for a resumption of the current trend when it is the largest cycle due to bottom at the time. this cycle either bottomed yesterday or should early friday, with the caveat of course tomorrow being op ex. whatever the op ex effect is, i expect a resumption of the uptrend after it's effect wears off.



non op ex effect max cycle risk should be about 1150 + on SPX and approx 813+ on RUT.

[bobalou]

just a note; if you use a count of 13 or 14 days I see ,we have , grouping,,,count back w/ today as 1.the blocks are clear,and I think a move down should start soon. all so the short weeks ,put the timing off some.(as in 13 / 14) that's why I noted a high about opt.exp week. I hope that's a help. keep up the good work thx I'm not clear on what's to come w/ your work.up or down from here ?

Edited by bobalou, 16 February 2007 - 06:39 AM.

[airedale88]

bobalou, the last 2.5 wk cycle ran shorter that the average by about a day, +/- s happen all the time. small variation is one of the principles of Hurst's entire cycle methodology. using the last identifiable cycle low as late monday, the Hurst cycle model says a 3 to 3.5 day cycle low is due. i expect higher prices after this low.

Edited by airedale88, 16 February 2007 - 07:38 AM.

[Echo]

Aire, totally agree but additional consideration is that the 6-7 day low is due next Tues-Wed and with the markets closed Mon, we could get the combined downward effect of the 3-3.5 and 6-7 day lows into early next week. How we rebound out of the 6-7d low will be very telling IMHO. Echo

[airedale88]

echo, i expect a right translated top for the 6/7 day cycle so whatever happens today i think we see a higher high before the next 6/7 day nest of cycle lows.

[Echo]

Understood. Based on the FLD config, that's definitely doable, esp SPX, though RUT has to find support on rise right here. Thanks. Echo

Edited by Echo, 16 February 2007 - 10:50 AM.

[airedale88]

new all time high and close on SP mid, new all time closing price high on RUT and V Line. the 3 to 3.5 day cycle bottomed around 10 a.m., 42 half hour bars from the previous low on the SP500 chart above. higher prices coming IMHO.

[Echo]

Very nice work, aire. you've been spot on. Twelve 30min bars up on Friday thirteen silent ones on Monday, that makes 25 suggests a 6-7d low late Tues-early Wed. which could be a higher low Echo

[airedale88]

echo, with monday closed, i think what ever price action that would have occurred that day will be reflected early tuesday. may be a very interesting day.

[Echo]

Aire, I was thinking the same thing. We might see a short term increase in volatility, lol.

I was looking at the 40wk halfspan/fullspan spx chart and we are 1 wk from a cross. Looks to me like 1480 +/- 26pts possible target if you use the june lowest low which might be reasonable given the incredible strength shown by spx since then. We are already in the window of that target. Even more remarkable is that your Hurst techniques projected 1490 +/- 24 points which you posted as far back as Dec 15th, 2006.( http://www.investors...age_id=15573103 ) and we have been within 8 points of piercing that range. Congrats on that.

Now as we get closer to the targets and we have the 4.5yr, 80wk, 20wk, and 10wk cycles all down and the 40wk close to topping, the big questions are:

1. do you take profits as the targets are approached or hit or do you still ride it hoping for overshoots with VTL and fld breaks for stops, and

2. do you think about shorting into this coming 20wk low due now in about 4 wks.

It is, indeed, going to get interesting...

Echo