14 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

Aire, I was thinking the same thing. We might see a short term increase in volatility, lol.

I was looking at the 40wk halfspan/fullspan spx chart and we are 1 wk from a cross. Looks to me like 1480 +/- 26pts possible target if you use the june lowest low which might be reasonable given the incredible strength shown by spx since then. We are already in the window of that target. Even more remarkable is that your Hurst techniques projected 1490 +/- 24 points which you posted as far back as Dec 15th, 2006.( http://www.investors...age_id=15573103 ) and we have been within 8 points of piercing that range. Congrats on that.

Now as we get closer to the targets and we have the 4.5yr, 80wk, 20wk, and 10wk cycles all down and the 40wk close to topping, the big questions are:

1. do you take profits as the targets are approached or hit or do you still ride it hoping for overshoots with VTL and fld breaks for stops, and

2. do you think about shorting into this coming 20wk low due now in about 4 wks.

It is, indeed, going to get interesting...

Echo

1. i would use either vtls or fld breaks. strong sigma el suggests possible overshoot.

2. yes, if an fld cascade sets up. i do think we might make a higher high in the final 20 wk cycle, so i don't have major wood for shorting yet.



i should also add that i'd like to see some weakness set up in that INDU envelope/NYSE breadth system to suggest it's time for shorting.

Edited by airedale88, 18 February 2007 - 08:35 AM.

[Echo]

Thanks Aire. Good points.

By the way, I see a potential for a slight shortening of this 20wk cycle by a few days.

In an effort to save energy costs, the US is lengthening the duration of daylight savings time beginning this year. They are "phase shifting" the beginning of DST from the first Sun in April to the second Sun in March from now on, which this year shifts it from April 1 to March 11 http://webexhibits.o...htsaving/b.html .

Perhaps folks will stroll back to work on Monday March 12 euphoric about the longer daylight time and the markets will blast up out of the 20wk low! Just in time for opex week. On the other hand, it could disorient investors enough that we keep dropping into the low by the end of the week on March 16 or Mon 19th. LOL.

Echo

[airedale88]

Thanks Aire. Good points.

By the way, I see a potential for a slight shortening of this 20wk cycle by a few days.

In an effort to save energy costs, the US is lengthening the duration of daylight savings time beginning this year. They are "phase shifting" the beginning of DST from the first Sun in April to the second Sun in March from now on, which this year shifts it from April 1 to March 11 http://webexhibits.o...htsaving/b.html .

Perhaps folks will stroll back to work on Monday March 12 euphoric about the longer daylight time and the markets will blast up out of the 20wk low! Just in time for opex week. On the other hand, it could disorient investors enough that we keep dropping into the low by the end of the week on March 16 or Mon 19th. LOL.

Echo

well, if cycles were caused by man made events i guess you could have phase shifts. if we attribute their source to the natural world, a little clock tinkering should not matter. spring won't come any faster with an earlier D.S.T. adjustment. i'm psyched and looking forward to it though. more time to spend outdoors after the markets close.

[bobalou]

A ?..do you have (the week of), 3/5/07, as a turn pt. or any thing,

[Echo]

Well, OK, I guess it could go the other way as well... It looks like the 6-7 day low came a bit early, in the first hour of trading Tues. I see a cross below and back above the 6-7d fld on all the indexes. I think the low is now behind us. Now let's see another RT 2.5wk cycle. Echo