Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 February 2007 - 07:29 PM.
Sentiment has not worked except all year long
#1
Posted 17 February 2007 - 05:26 PM
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#2
Posted 17 February 2007 - 06:14 PM
#3
Posted 17 February 2007 - 09:07 PM
#4
Posted 18 February 2007 - 09:27 AM
#5
Posted 18 February 2007 - 10:21 AM
Edited by esther231, 18 February 2007 - 10:22 AM.
#6
Posted 18 February 2007 - 12:45 PM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#7
Posted 18 February 2007 - 02:24 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
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#8
Posted 18 February 2007 - 02:50 PM
Semi:
I love your volume intrepretations and appreciate your posts on them.The VOLUME is the only vote that counts.
Good observation. It may depend on the sentiment measure itself in the way the measurement of sentiment is taken.I don't use sentiment, because it is too indicative of empathy towards embedded positions rather than the opinions of fresh money going in or out of the market...
I find that the sentiment measures taken once a week usually are simply a reflection of what took place during the past week.
However, the AAII record low below 30 pretty much nailed the bottom.
I used to know an old farmer who would do some welding for me.
I would explain what I wanted done but often my design idea was different from the way he would have designed it.
But he would simply say:
"There are lot's of ways to do lot's of things."
Some would say that volume itself is a measure of sentiment.
And I think you would agree that volume must be interpreted correctly to be an effective indicator.
I find that other "sentiment" measures are similar.
I also find, as stated above, that one day jumps often indicate that too many got on the wrong side of the trade in the short term.
It is especially useful when the market is fairly balanced or as Zoran Gayer liked to say, "bifurcated".
When a thrust comes, the intrepretation must change with the context.
We see a one day sentiment jump at the beginning of May's sell off.
Notice it also touched the VIX BB and reversed.
A week or so before that, I noted in my $VIX chart that the BB's were narrowing, the VIX had flatlined and that a move was coming as there was tension in the market. It did.
And like a guy trying to forecast high tide during a tsunami, things got a little extreme so you see some very bearish jumps as the downthrust is occurring and you can also see some bullish jumps which halted any rally along the way to the bottom.
Below is the May '06 chart. The sentiment indicated is for the following day, therefore I shifted the VIX one day and inverted it so that the connection would be more obvious.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p68884666374&a=27927380&r=3098.png
Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 February 2007 - 03:04 PM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.
#9
Posted 18 February 2007 - 03:34 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter
#10
Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:21 PM
Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 February 2007 - 05:09 PM.
BIGGEST SCIENCE SCANDAL EVER...Official records systematically 'adjusted'.