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Sentiment has not worked except all year long


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#11 SemiBizz

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:21 PM

Roger, one other thing folks might want to do is go back to the beginning of last may and look at our actual position poll.

And by the way, Semi, I agree with Roger that one could argue that volume is a measure of sentiment. ChartGuru Doug always argued that price was sentiment. ;) I don't look at either that way, but that doesn't mean that the theories aren't legitimate.

Regardless, I DO look at volume now much more closely thanks to your work here.

Mark



I could argue the #cups of coffee I drink on a given day is sentiment... :lol:



There's a big difference in what I practice and what you get from following sentiment.. Here's what you get. You don't wait for the results of the nightly TT or weekly Hulbert or AAII or whatever. You get a realtime measurement in any length you like, minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years, decades. You don't have to wait. The data's right there. Quantitative data, right at your fingertips... For the most part since we're all traders supposedly in this environment... if you wait til the sentiment poll is right to pull the trigger.. you are already LATE... It's not about making the decision to pull the trigger or not, it's about WHEN, what conditions you're looking for that give you a highly probable outcome of a profit with a low risk. The analysis I practice, there's nothing nebulous, you identify the price, the expected return, and the stop... all on volume at swing point data. That's the difference between using price and volume dynamics vs. sentiment. Sentiment polls don't give you entries, targets, stops. It's just a digital readout on BUY/SELL.


I will just leave it there fore now...
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Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#12 Chilidawgz

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:23 PM

As I have always contended, The VOLUME is the only vote that counts...



looks like Tuesday is going north on the open? (I am waiting to see what gives after the first 45 minutes) :unsure:

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#13 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:26 PM

Semi, I think you've missed the value. If you use sentiment, you will know BEFORE the volume followers whether a move is likely to get legs. It's generally or often predictive, not reactive--though the reactive sentiment data can be hugely valuable on a short-term basis. Mark

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#14 Chilidawgz

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:27 PM

and this is why I am waiting, daily time frame is suggesting down:

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Anything can happen...what's happening now?
No one can forecast the future. No one.
 
All stocks (ETF's) are BAD...unless they go up - William O'Neil
When The Time Comes To Buy or Sell, You Won't Want To - Walter Deemer
 
 

#15 gti_99

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 04:45 PM

Roger, thanks. So those dots in the Bullish / Bearish area are combination of thing and are of your own device then? Would you please post it when the signal flashes in the future? Thanks.

#16 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 05:03 PM

Sure will!
This guy's pretty good too: Link

Nice charts Chili. I like the background.
"Once you go black..."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 18 February 2007 - 05:07 PM.


#17 SemiBizz

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 05:12 PM

Semi, I think you've missed the value. If you use sentiment, you will know BEFORE the volume followers whether a move is likely to get legs. It's generally or often predictive, not reactive--though the reactive sentiment data can be hugely valuable on a short-term basis.

Mark





I disagree completely. We are in two different Worlds. Most of the people on the site are concerned with issues such as bull or bear market, rally or crash. I'm just working swing points here. Those other arguments don't interest me. I'm looking for high reward/low risk trading opportunities. Whether the overall market is in a rally or retracement is just one part of the picture. And within those rallies and retracements there are areas of strength and weakness. Example: How many times have we seen a day with the Nasdaq solidly down and the SOX up big. Plenty of them. And last weekend for example when the board was bearish, I projected a rally back to 2496. Yes, I missed on the retracement target of 2438 by 6 pts, but I got the spring part of it right. I don't know what your sentiment said a week ago last Friday because I don't follow it. But one thing for sure, your sentiment polls couldn't give you ANY idea of what specific highs and lows would be tested... but using dynamic volume/price analysis I pretty much NAILED it, didn't I.? B)
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#18 Rogerdodger

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 05:20 PM

I don't know what your sentiment said a week ago last Friday

Look at my first chart and you will see. :huh:

#19 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 05:22 PM

Sentiment won't tell you about targets, though it did tell us in June that we had a hell of a rally coming. There's a reason why I use volume now, too. It's hugely useful to help figure out if a move is real and where serious support and resistance might be. Mark

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#20 SemiBizz

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Posted 18 February 2007 - 05:51 PM

Semi, I think you've missed the value. If you use sentiment, you will know BEFORE the volume followers whether a move is likely to get legs. It's generally or often predictive, not reactive--though the reactive sentiment data can be hugely valuable on a short-term basis.
Mark





I disagree completely. We are in two different Worlds. Most of the people on the site are concerned with issues such as bull or bear market, rally or crash. I'm just working swing points here. Those other arguments don't interest me. I'm looking for high reward/low risk trading opportunities. Whether the overall market is in a rally or retracement is just one part of the picture. And within those rallies and retracements there are areas of strength and weakness. Example: How many times have we seen a day with the Nasdaq solidly down and the SOX up big. Plenty of them. And last weekend for example when the board was bearish, I projected a rally back to 2496. Yes, I missed on the retracement target of 2438 by 6 pts, but I got the spring part of it right. I don't know what your sentiment said a week ago last Friday because I don't follow it. But one thing for sure, your sentiment polls couldn't give you ANY idea of what specific highs and lows would be tested... but using dynamic volume/price analysis I pretty much NAILED it, didn't I.? B)



As far as knowing BEFORE... I monitor volume in time slices. I know the outlook for the daily in the first hour of trading for the most part. Not only that, as far as knowing BEFORE, for example we look at the Nasdaq, we go back and examine past trading trends for the clues to future price behavior (i.e. what is it trying to test?) We look at February, Februaries are low volume months. The most bullish pattern for low volume trading in front of a HIGH Volume Month like March is a light volume pullback. We know that the probabilities are good with a light volume pullback in February going into March that the Outlook for March is most likely a bullish spring going into the first part of the month. Dynamic Volume and Price analysis helps you understand from an even greater perspective of what is going on in the market. For example: we look at what's going on with this trading range, and what is being rationalized. In this time frame, we're rationalizing the volume spike of 1/3/2001 - the day the Fed dropped interest rates by 1%. Trading range 2251-2618. Bottom line, this is a consolidation move

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



The highest volume month is January 2001. All of this compression over 2251 is a reaction and rationalization of that high volume month. Right here we are only moving sideways higher and not the FAST UPTREND that the Nasdaq likes to move up on... So the bottom line is we're in a consolidation. The move into this area failed last Spring on a bearish upthrust off the high volume candle of March 2006. I have to suspect this could happen again. There is cause to continue to retest 2251-2000 from a bearish point of view as well as cause to retest the Jan 2001 highs(2892high). Right here we're in the middle of that Jan 2001 candle price range. Eventually the Nasdaq will finish this sideways move and we either move smartly down to 2251 or we advance in FAST UPTREND firstly to the 1/3/2001 high of 2618 and then probably after another consolidation go for the weekly and monthly highs. So while sentiment may give you an interim sense of direction, it doesn't offer any clues as to what the underlying agenda is, in terms of targets. I would argue this methodology gives you a lot more clarity than trying to understand the weekly whims of polls..



So to me, sentiment polls are a waste of time on too little information returned... AND, I seem to do pretty well identifying market turns. So I don't want to confuse what works very well with stuff that partially works... that's why I stay away from sentiment.
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics