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#11 fib_1618

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 06:47 PM

You need to read my blog before you comment.

I did. Maybe you can provide a chart to show the consistency?

Thanks
Fib

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#12 Russ

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 08:40 PM

Here is a basic view showing some of the hits of the past.
Posted Image

You need to read my blog before you comment.

I did. Maybe you can provide a chart to show the consistency?

Thanks
Fib


"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#13 Russ

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Posted 19 February 2007 - 08:56 PM

this work(posted on this board in another string) seems to be in agreement with the 3141
Posted Image
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#14 fib_1618

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Posted 20 February 2007 - 01:53 PM

Thanks for taking the time to mark up the chart Russ. As I mentioned earlier, "this cycle would fit well with the bear market period between 1998 and 2002, but it would be stretching the point if you tried to fit this analysis prior to this same time period." You've made this point pretty clear with your selective annotations on the chart, and where having "billions to one statistical significance" might be pushing the point a bit. I do fully understand that cycle work can be judgmental, no less, subjective in scope. Nothing is really perfect when it comes to this kind of stuff, but there is enough of an inconsistency to this cycle that it can be called questionable as to its forecasting merit. As far as the original topic is concerned, one may also make note of the 1989 to 1994 period where just because a cycle top can be anticipated as it relates to a business cycle, this doesn't necessarily directly translate that the price pattern will also co-operate to what this (or any cycle) might suggest within this same cyclical concept. Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#15 Russ

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Posted 20 February 2007 - 06:49 PM

Fib,

Actually I didn't mark the chart up, if you notice the projection on it was done back on 1995 by the editor of www.bestonlinetrades.com .

The billions to one statistical odds are Martin Armstrong's words not mine and if he said it you can be sure it is accurate. (don't forget he is looking back on this cycle over many decades)

I have been studying this model for about 15 years now and sorry to say but your understanding of it is incomplete. The model was part of a 32,000 variable supercomputer model that tracked international capital flows. It was after the crash of 1998 that the CIA and the Chinese gov't. showed up at Armstrong's company Princeton Economics door trying to aquire the model and he said no to them.

The reason the Japanese handed over several billion dollars to Armstrong is because he predicted that the Nikkei would peak on the model in late 1989 and then lose 20,000 points in ten months which it did. All this is on my blog which shows that despite your claims you did not read it.

Russ

Thanks for taking the time to mark up the chart Russ.

As I mentioned earlier, "this cycle would fit well with the bear market period between 1998 and 2002, but it would be stretching the point if you tried to fit this analysis prior to this same time period." You've made this point pretty clear with your selective annotations on the chart, and where having "billions to one statistical significance" might be pushing the point a bit.

I do fully understand that cycle work can be judgmental, no less, subjective in scope. Nothing is really perfect when it comes to this kind of stuff, but there is enough of an inconsistency to this cycle that it can be called questionable as to its forecasting merit.

As far as the original topic is concerned, one may also make note of the 1989 to 1994 period where just because a cycle top can be anticipated as it relates to a business cycle, this doesn't necessarily directly translate that the price pattern will also co-operate to what this (or any cycle) might suggest within this same cyclical concept.

Fib


Edited by Russ, 20 February 2007 - 06:50 PM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#16 fib_1618

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Posted 20 February 2007 - 09:33 PM

All this is on my blog which shows that despite your claims you did not read it.

Sigh...fine...you're right, I'm a liar...always have been...always will be.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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