11 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

So will Nasdaq So will S&P then finally Dow Those sectors that led the market on the downside over the long term, should be the first to reverse to the downside again. Namely, SOX, HGX ... Price and volume patterns of these sectors have the strong implications that they are about to enter the second leg, or already did.

[stocks]

ECRI's weekly leading economic index has been down 2 weeks in a row. This could be the start of a 'c' wave
correction in the economy from it's growth top in early 2006.

http://www.investorh...f...e&msgid=378

[jawndissedi]

Mish had this chart on his blog over the weekend. I thought it was pretty interesting:



Also, here's a graph forecasting housing's impact on the rest of the economy from an outfit that's not generally thought of as being a member of the doom-and-gloom permabear club:

Edited by jawndissedi, 19 February 2007 - 05:49 PM.

[pdx5]

Interesting charts...thanks for posting. IMO the trigger for a
good old fashioned correction will be the China stock market.
The J6P Chinese is now borrowing on credit cards to buy stocks
which are going hyperbolic. It is the year of golden pig!!



http://www.safehaven...rticle-6945.htm

Edited by pdx5, 19 February 2007 - 06:27 PM.

[snorkels4]

according to puplava and wood this is going to be a small dip with new highs in 2007 in all fairness they did call a bottom at summer low so now theyre callin a bigger bottom soon. the 4 year cycle low in 2007 then roaring bull--unless i heard wrong

[SemiBizz]

What's Bill Gates buying?

His foundation unloads home builder, energy shares

The overall value of the holdings dropped about 4% to $5.9 billion



KB Home, Centex Corp., Pulte Homes Inc., Lennar Corp., Beazer Homes USA Inc., Ryland Group Inc., and WCI Communities Inc. were dropped from the list of holdings.

Buy and Hold my (_l_)....



What was that a 3 month hold? They disclosed these holdings in November...

[jawndissedi]

There are some sharp-eyed folks looking really hard at some of these warthogs. I saw this over on Russ Winter's blog:

If the current down trend in housing starts continues CTX will be the first national builder to go bankrupt. They need to build around 6600 houses per quarter just to break even. Right now they are losing net $ 37.163 per house. Within the next 2Q they will be in breach of loan covenants. 5 Billion dollars in land owned outright (104,186 lots depreciating fast) is killing them. I wonder what their bankable equity in the land is. They can’t afford to lose $ 228 million per Q for too long.

[A-ha]

There are some sharp-eyed folks looking really hard at some of these warthogs. I saw this over on Russ Winter's blog:

If the current down trend in housing starts continues CTX will be the first national builder to go bankrupt. They need to build around 6600 houses per quarter just to break even. Right now they are losing net $ 37.163 per house. Within the next 2Q they will be in breach of loan covenants. 5 Billion dollars in land owned outright (104,186 lots depreciating fast) is killing them. I wonder what their bankable equity in the land is. They can’t afford to lose $ 228 million per Q for too long.

CTX does have very ugly things on its long term chart and it was one of the HGX components that convinced me about what I said.

[greenie]

CTX does have very ugly things on its long term chart and it was one of the HGX components that convinced me about what I said.

Which other ones?

My favorites are CTX, MTH and BZH. Bizarre Homes has the worst performing stock.

[A-ha]

Since you asked, here is my whole list of uglies: CTX DHI MTH MDC TOL BZH Also there are others among those material stocks running on inflation balloon and making new highs, some of them are about to put a monster top or already did ...ASD and TIN two of them