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SPX volume


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#11 A-ha

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 06:44 PM

xD..why is that the high odds play?



Because from my experience, when you get this many consecutive narrow days on vapors after 250 SPX points rally in 7 months non-stop, that kind of long term trend line can easily break the spine of the index, at least initially.

I stress the word "at least" because whatever will happen over the long term, should happen after that initial reaction. So that sell off will be a good test of what will be coming next . That time, If I am wrong about my long term view , we will see SPX holding around 1380-1400 then rally back up to break out of this 4 year long trend line.

I strongly believe this is the thought process that has been tempting some OEX folks to load up OEX puts at this juncture. Because OEX has the same situation.

Even if we were not overbought now and even if we didn't have declining volume now, from my experience that that 4 year long trend line can easily produce a sharp sell off , at least for a short period of time, say a few weeks.

Edited by xD&Cox, 21 February 2007 - 06:50 PM.


#12 BigBadBear

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 07:22 PM

Is the four yr trendline you refer to...the same as the 4yr cycle ?

#13 Jnavin

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 07:31 PM

"advance/decline plurality of volume" Chart?

#14 SemiBizz

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 08:02 PM

Sure there's significance to it.. it's a bearish upthrust... When it does pullback it wants to test 1440.
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#15 fib_1618

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 08:05 PM

"advance/decline plurality of volume"

Chart?

The structural simplicity of "on balance" volume in direct relation to daily volume.

Have a plane to catch...take care.

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#16 Jnavin

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 08:45 PM

Thanks, fib. Have a good flight. I see that you've posted a monthly chart which indicates the massive strength of the continuing bull market. But what I'm interested in is the recent 7 to 8 weeks as expressed on a typical daily chart. Do you have a chart that shows advance/decline plurality, i.e. on-balance volume, for this timeframe? And, is it significantly different from spielchkr's chart?

Edited by Jnavin, 21 February 2007 - 08:45 PM.


#17 Frac_Man

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Posted 21 February 2007 - 11:42 PM

NO









SPX

Is there any significance to the steady decline in volume from the beginning of the year to the present?



#18 bobalou

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 05:40 AM

all good posts............

#19 arbman

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 06:06 AM

BTW, do you guys think the retails are selling short all that much?

Date customer_vol firm_vol mm_vol
20070213 0000000006922754 0000000003736190 0000000009363655
20070214 0000000009101305 0000000004048918 0000000010122747
20070215 0000000007860453 0000000003237126 0000000008407261
20070216 0000000008776876 0000000002692938 0000000007918408
20070220 0000000007570239 0000002502632633 0000000007876815
20070221 0000000006976755 0000001502599603 0000000007002251

I have a feeling that the majority of the put volume is from the firms over the last few days lately...

Date net_OI (calls)
20070216 11369036 (expiration day)
20070220 10749944
20070221 10795508
or net call change yesterday = ~50k!!!

Yet, there is no significant increase in the net calls after this heavy firm trading?!? Although the open interest on the calls and the puts grew by 2M contracts (each) yesterday, the futures contracts' open interest is the lowest for months with a rapid decline since January (50%) and mediocre change over the last 2 days too...

These levels and changes are similar to May 2006, the CPCE vs CPCI patterns over the past 10-15 days are also quite similar to the patterns prior to May 10, btw. No need to mention OEX P/C ratio patterns or the COT reports that appear to be bearish overall...

I am much more inclined to call this as near an IT top than a bottom. I would not get too excited here...

- kisa

#20 Echo

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Posted 22 February 2007 - 09:41 AM

Last 8 weeks: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYU...&a=98972978



http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p07467185401&listNum=1&a=98972978.png



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