Jump to content



Photo

Gold knows


  • Please log in to reply
5 replies to this topic

#1 Stickan

Stickan

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 411 posts

Posted 21 February 2007 - 06:37 PM

Interesting day today. Gold up some $20, although the dollar didn't move.
Well, perhaps it's the other way around this time.
First gold moves then the dollar.
check this out.

Posted Image

First of all - isn't that Pitchfork a beauty? Check out the x's. The precision with which the dollar is following the pink fork. Amazing.

So what happend to the dollar from last summer?

1. Breakdown from blue trendchannel
2. Test of break down (not entering channel again)
3 Another test (Not getting close to t/l). We now have an inverted H&S with green neckline. Penetration but no follow through
4. Convincing break down through red trendline (similar power as (1)) And we now have a confirmed H&S failure.
5. Feeble test of break down of a)t/l and b)right shoulder and c)38,2% retracement level

Also note the Dec break down through the (A) bottom. This is either a failure break or a pre-break. Since we didn't get a follow through on the upside (but a H&S failure instead) it was a pre-break, one can expect a speedy down move from here (especially after H&S failure).

And talking about failures

Posted Image

Although gold stopped on the blue neckline to this inverted H&S, we had a breakdown failure of the red trendline, with the typical consequence - a dramatic move to the opposite side. Potential in H&S = min 740


If the power of the Gold break-out is a guideline to what will happen to the dollar we will probably see some interesting days ahead.

#2 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,062 posts

Posted 21 February 2007 - 06:53 PM

What will the commercials do ? Massively net short, and within the range they were last May. Only this time, gold appears to be heading up. Will they cover ? The dollar was up part of the day. I would expect some profit taking tomorrow, but heck who knows. This gold thing probably will wake some folks up. Down $11 one day, up $23 the next.
OTIS.

#3 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 21 February 2007 - 10:29 PM

Pimco's Gross Raises Total Return Cash Equivalents to Almost Two-Year High Bill Gross, manager of the world's biggest bond fund, is so disenchanted with U.S. debt markets that he's raised his holdings of cash-equivalent securities to the highest level in almost two years.

#4 bobalou

bobalou

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,878 posts

Posted 22 February 2007 - 05:29 AM

my bs.w/ gold we are at the end of a new cycle, to me, some times, =s 4 days up,I all so see it broke the trin line then jumped back up to it to = the 4 days up ????..now w/ commodties, they like EMA's SO START YOUR RIBBENS.9,15,or 20 , 50, 150,now,play w/ that, and the $ ,just a note, fed rate @ 5.25 is high to the rest of the world,=s the carry trade you may of hurd of,,.that is the suport for the $,,hope that's a help ?

#5 eminimee

eminimee

    I don't care who's fur is flying...

  • TT Member
  • 14,307 posts

Posted 22 February 2007 - 08:21 AM

Gold is saying inflationary times ahead....inflationary times mean higher interest rates....higher interest rates means stronger dollar.
That's my 3cents anyways.......I'm short EURO and expecting dollar to start rebounding very soon.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD...2955&r=3031

#6 arbman

arbman

    Quant

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 19,504 posts

Posted 22 February 2007 - 11:58 AM

For the first time, the currency and stocks are going down together, watch this out and this is despite the rising rates, an interesting juncture indeed...

http://ichart.financ...X,USDJPY=X&.png

- kisa