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Why goverments in emerging markets started orchestating


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#1 A-ha

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 07:32 AM

have been hearing this line from several parabolic bubble lands simultaneously all of a sudden... not from economists but all politics .... something wrong ? :lol:

#2 A-ha

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 09:35 AM

OR wont you believe what I said I saw


Bombay Balloon


and now

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#3 arbman

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 11:32 AM

The new highs are declining, but the new lows are not increasing yet. Without the new lows increasing any decline in the new highs is just a pause for now. The bears can hope for a trading range at best before it tops, of course, it will break not suddenly when the liquidity is so much imho. There were plenty of signs in 1996-2001 period before any meaningful correction in the new highs vs new lows. I expect the same, the bears had a chance about 2 wks ago with a little divergence in the breath, but there has been no increase in the selling pressure since then, it is only speculation... - kisa

#4 jawndissedi

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 11:37 AM

How about this one? (Sorry -- I don't have a chart, but we all know what a parabola looks like. :D )

A manager at a foreign-run hotel and part-time MBA student, Nguyen Dung, 26, had never owned shares in a company until recently. But last week, impressed by the spectacular rise of Vietnam’s stock market, he invested $650 in an informal pool with 30 of his MBA classmates.

The MBA students have agreed to pool information and tips and invest in a murky – and unregulated – informal market for shares in partially-privatised state-owned companies. To Mr Dung, what to any astute investor in the developed world would seem a risky bet, looks like a sure thing.

“In Vietnam, the stock market is changing day by day,” he says. “If anyone has the correct information, they can get easy money.”

After watching the formal stock market’s main index soar by 249 per cent over the last 13 months, Vietnam’s emerging middle class is in the throws of stock market mania and students, civil servants and state enterprise managers with cash to spare are all rushing to buy shares and dreaming of windfall profits.


Full story
Da nile is more than a river in Egypt.

#5 VolPivots

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 12:31 PM

The new highs are declining, but the new lows are not increasing yet. Without the new lows increasing any decline in the new highs is just a pause for now. The bears can hope for a trading range at best before it tops, of course, it will break not suddenly when the liquidity is so much imho. There were plenty of signs in 1996-2001 period before any meaningful correction in the new highs vs new lows. I expect the same, the bears had a chance about 2 wks ago with a little divergence in the breath, but there has been no increase in the selling pressure since then, it is only speculation...

- kisa


Kisa, I know you've been harping on leading/lagging sectors and cyclic implications. Here's a chart that may of interest......

http://stockcharts.c...5239&r=1193.png

#6 tomterrific14

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 02:00 PM

The new highs are declining, but the new lows are not increasing yet. Without the new lows increasing any decline in the new highs is just a pause for now. The bears can hope for a trading range at best before it tops, of course, it will break not suddenly when the liquidity is so much imho. There were plenty of signs in 1996-2001 period before any meaningful correction in the new highs vs new lows. I expect the same, the bears had a chance about 2 wks ago with a little divergence in the breath, but there has been no increase in the selling pressure since then, it is only speculation...

- kisa


Kisa, I know you've been harping on leading/lagging sectors and cyclic implications. Here's a chart that may of interest......

http://stockcharts.c...5239&r=1193.png

Market neutral...don't have the chart available to superimpose on your BPMIX, but if you can dig it up , it will indicate the high risk nature of this price level in this sector...it is the $BPMATE....the bullish percents in that sector........

#7 eminimee

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 02:19 PM

I've put some others in a post above this..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$DJUSBM&p=D&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p32416136848&a=48382614&r=9571.png

#8 VolPivots

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Posted 24 February 2007 - 02:51 PM

Market neutral...don't have the chart available to superimpose on your BPMIX, but if you can dig it up , it will indicate the high risk nature of this price level in this sector...it is the $BPMATE....the bullish percents in that sector........


TT, not quite what you requested, but one of the charts in the TA arsenal.....ideally we see a dip into the 2.5 week low due Wed-Fri followed by another rally to new highs around quaterly expirations.
If it stretches beyond that timewise, 4/11 and 1492 SPX come into play.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BPMATE&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p71726084376&a=80411514&r=4674.png

#9 arbman

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Posted 25 February 2007 - 03:27 PM

All of my indicators are pretty much rolling, there is this rising pessimism. The question is whether they will buy the next 1 or 2% decline? I think they will, the problem is whether the crowd will buy more or speculate more. The latter would be the recipe for a correction.

In May 2006, the same roll over in the internals and somewhat put accumulation into the Fed decision led to a sell off and the crowd immediately speculated for a reversal on the decline heavily and the correction just kept going and became a downtrend afterwards.

If the people start to flip and speculate in the next decline all that sloshing liquidity in the bull side, there is a good chance that the decline can get legs. There is nothing better than a crowd buying the corrections and selling the rallies for the big brokers...

My liquidity measures show that a trading range until May with wide swings and bearish bias until a real correction begins in May or so that should go until the middle of the summer at least. Nothing has changed in my 10-12% correction view for the first 2-3 quarters in 2007...

- kisa

#10 Rogerdodger

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Posted 25 February 2007 - 05:27 PM

real correction begins in May or so that should go until the middle of the summer at least


Interesting. The T theory points to 2 dates: May 6th and June 22nd. Fun to watch and see if anything to this theory.