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Where's Zentrader 13 Blog?


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#21 greenie

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 12:47 AM

You will soon want to be very long.....
....and CLK...something very similar to what's going on happened in 94.
It's just going to feel a little worse... in percentage terms ...it will be very similar....and pattern will be just a little different.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX...4425&r=1710

I've detailed my oex:spx ratio theory several times...won't bore you all again.

On a website that's devoted to the over-arching importance of financial market pricing, what I'm about to say is heresy: the economy is the dog, and stocks are the tail. When market cap grows to point where it is twice the size of annual GDP (as it is today), the tail can and does wag the dog for extended periods of time. Because of the historic amount of highly leveraged (and now imploding) speculation in residential real estate (a market that is largely outside of the sphere of influence of Wall Street), the dominance of the economy over the financial markets is being reasserted. The $6.5 trillion MBS market is in the process of unwinding along with $20-30 trillion in credit default swaps. (That's trillion with a "T", and not a typo.) Because CDS pricing is largely proprietary, there is no opportunity for you to analyze it -- technically or otherwise. As a friend of mine likes to say "Information is power, which is why you don't get any." By the time the true significance of what is happening becomes readily apparent, the markets will have already hit the wall -- HARD.

As always, JMHO.



I agree. TA is just a method to get some truth out of an otherwise immensely complex problem, but it is not the truth by itself. A good analogy would be that physicists often make linear approximation to get some understanding of a difficult problem. For example, to measure the distance from one end of a football field to another, linear approximation is used (i.e. ignore that the ground is curved). However, if one believes the linear approximation is the truth itself, then he ends up in the flat-earth society.
It is not the doing that is difficult, but the knowing


It's the illiquidity, stupid !

#22 hpm123

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 08:56 AM

The Zen site is back up. It's a bit different now.. more an epitaph of sorts at the moment, but have a feeling he'll be back - I personally enjoyed his comments/observations. Lot of time/effort was put into his postings.

Edited by hpm123, 03 March 2007 - 08:59 AM.


#23 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 10:11 AM

I just want to say one thing. We don't beat no our own for being wrong. I don't want to see it. It's just, well, beneath us and not consistent with our approach. It doesn't really matter that he's not a member any more. He's is still one of ours and I don't want anyone thinking that I think it's ok to beat up on one of ours for being wrong. Besides that, things change and so do people and relationships. I'm also saddened that Zen's blog shut down. That's just a pity. There was a lot of good work up there. I hope he takes himself a bit less seriously and quality of his work and those who were interested more seriously. Oh, yeah, for those of you who have faith, repeat: "There but for the grace of God go I..." Mark Young Founder Traders-Talk.com

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#24 pessimisticbull

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 11:08 AM

Don't confuse excess liquidity with excess debt. Japan carry trade blowup, sub prime all indicators of the trouble that is brewing... :angry:

And don't get long too early like they did in May and June... :)

I'm still waiting for our resident bull to proclaim the bottom is in and "we'll never see those low prices again in our lifetimes" :lol:

Seriously though, on the short term basis. As long as you see the CNBC honkers encouraging you to buy, buy, buy... stay short.. :lol:

When they say to be careful you can cover some for a bounce.... :)