5 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

People are going to point to many things that were signs of bottoms in the last few hiccups.. and thats what they were back then. This I believe is an entirely different animal. There will be attempts at bottom fishing by many using the past indicators of sentiment, breadth, whatever. Which is why this is going down even further. I think this is an A wave (not a 4), and there will be a B wave, but I think an A wave will come after somewhere near 50% correction of the recent rally. I also think the B bounce won't be as pronounced as many think it will be. If you're watching the COT data, watch futures for sentiment. When that sucker is dipped way the hell into the short territory, its time to think about the long side. So far, no fear. I wanna see some real fear. Cramer was on the boob tube thursday telling everyone not to panic, that its a buying opportunity, that those who were scared out of their stocks were suckers, etc. Then the lightning round where everyone calling in and it was still bullish. I wanna see Cramer capitulate. That may signal a bottom.

[bliss just missed]

People are going to point to many things that were signs of bottoms in the last few hiccups.. and thats what they were back then.

This I believe is an entirely different animal. There will be attempts at bottom fishing by many using the past indicators of sentiment, breadth, whatever. Which is why this is going down even further.

I think this is an A wave (not a 4), and there will be a B wave, but I think an A wave will come after somewhere near 50% correction of the recent rally. I also think the B bounce won't be as pronounced as many think it will be.

If you're watching the COT data, watch futures for sentiment. When that sucker is dipped way the hell into the short territory, its time to think about the long side.

So far, no fear. I wanna see some real fear. Cramer was on the boob tube thursday telling everyone not to panic, that its a buying opportunity, that those who were scared out of their stocks were suckers, etc. Then the lightning round where everyone calling in and it was still bullish.

I wanna see Cramer capitulate. That may signal a bottom.

When you say "see some real fear" - who are you referring to? For the long-term investor, this is a slight pullback (4-5% domestically) coming off strong gains in 2006. Now if you're talking traders (options, futures, equities) that have a short-term horizion (2-6 weeks), I see plenty of fear, especially in the last hour of trading on Friday where the futures dropped basically 10 points with no bids in the market. So I see fear, frustration and plenty of anxiety (unless you've been playing the short side) in the markets. As for Cramer, let's remember that he is an entertainer that maybe has 300,000 viewers, not a real good indicator of sentiment.

[endisnear]

People are going to point to many things that were signs of bottoms in the last few hiccups.. and thats what they were back then.

This I believe is an entirely different animal. There will be attempts at bottom fishing by many using the past indicators of sentiment, breadth, whatever. Which is why this is going down even further.

I think this is an A wave (not a 4), and there will be a B wave, but I think an A wave will come after somewhere near 50% correction of the recent rally. I also think the B bounce won't be as pronounced as many think it will be.

If you're watching the COT data, watch futures for sentiment. When that sucker is dipped way the hell into the short territory, its time to think about the long side.

So far, no fear. I wanna see some real fear. Cramer was on the boob tube thursday telling everyone not to panic, that its a buying opportunity, that those who were scared out of their stocks were suckers, etc. Then the lightning round where everyone calling in and it was still bullish.

I wanna see Cramer capitulate. That may signal a bottom.

When you say "see some real fear" - who are you referring to? For the long-term investor, this is a slight pullback (4-5% domestically) coming off strong gains in 2006. Now if you're talking traders (options, futures, equities) that have a short-term horizion (2-6 weeks), I see plenty of fear, especially in the last hour of trading on Friday where the futures dropped basically 10 points with no bids in the market. So I see fear, frustration and plenty of anxiety (unless you've been playing the short side) in the markets. As for Cramer, let's remember that he is an entertainer that maybe has 300,000 viewers, not a real good indicator of sentiment.

Hey i agree with you....anyone who thinks Cramer is as stupid as he acts is a fool....the guy went to Harvard and is worth a few hundred million....i personally can't stand him, but he made a few good calls on they way up...free $$ to JP6..

As far as fear, Im long and scared to death....losing sleep...and feel nauseated. There's plenty of fear. I don't think they're ready to drop it yet. LT bear though.

[Rogerdodger]

This I believe is an entirely different animal. There will be attempts at bottom fishing by many using the past indicators of sentiment, breadth, whatever. Which is why this is going down even further.

Tsunamis are very rare. And very deadly.
The Dec. 26th Tsunami amazed the people who were there.
The ocean actually appeared to dry up and the unfortunate went out onto dry sea floor looking for shells and treasure and what have you.
When they first saw the huge wave coming, they could not process what it meant.

This may not just be an unusual low tide.
I do believe caution is advised.


Gene Inger says that crashes come from oversold markets.
"If more than a mild adjustment; things may rebound (and will rebound) periodically, but when/if they fail and for the second or third time (more) take-out the initial lows, risk of a plunge of serious magnitude..."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 March 2007 - 01:08 PM.

[SemiBizz]

Well, I guess I agree this is not a "typical" correction, but for different reasons. My best indicator is VOLUME. This chart says it all. Just compare this week's volume with the May/June "correction" volumes. That's really all you need to know. Cramer, CNBC, sentiment polls...all that stuff is just human noise. Look at the VOLUME, that's the summation of what people actually DID, rather than what they SAID... The human noise is infected by subjective and twisted views of the people's portfolio positions and public statements about the market.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[CLK]

Well, I guess I agree this is not a "typical" correction, but for different reasons. My best indicator is VOLUME. This chart says it all. Just compare this week's volume with the May/June "correction" volumes. That's really all you need to know. Cramer, CNBC, sentiment polls...all that stuff is just human noise. Look at the VOLUME, that's the summation of what people actually DID, rather than what they SAID... The human noise is infected by subjective and twisted views of the people's portfolio positions and public statements about the market.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I would expext volume to explode "after" a few weks of down or so.
That we got it the first week has to mean something.

Well, I guess I agree this is not a "typical" correction, but for different reasons. My best indicator is VOLUME. This chart says it all. Just compare this week's volume with the May/June "correction" volumes. That's really all you need to know. Cramer, CNBC, sentiment polls...all that stuff is just human noise. Look at the VOLUME, that's the summation of what people actually DID, rather than what they SAID... The human noise is infected by subjective and twisted views of the people's portfolio positions and public statements about the market.



http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

I would expect volume to explode "after" a few weeks of down or so.
That we got it the first week has to mean something.