5 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif



Well, look at the bright side. We still have another 100+ pts down on Nasdaq to 2251. 2251 is roughly a .50 of this entire move off the latest bottom.

2251 is the low of that fateful day long before 911 on January 3, 2001. The high was 2618... that was the day the Feds had to give up their silly denial game and lower rates a FULL ONE PERCENT...

This entire exercise is a rationalization of that single trading day. Here we are more than 6 years later and we still can't get back over that high... and what is 2618 about?... it's about a .50 retracement off the high of Nasdaq in March 2000...

The plain truth is this... If we can't get back over the .50 level of the history of Nasdaq. There's nothing else to do here but get short and stay short.

[mmm]

I do not claim to have your technical know how but if this is still a bull market do you really expect to see nasdaq break through this level the first time it hits it? I am not a bull or a bear. This can easily be a good retracement for the nasdaq before it goes back up to try to break this resistance line. Even if we are now in a bear market I would be suprised if nasdaq only tries one time to break through this area and just gives up here. Time will tell. Short term we are very oversold and I expect a bounce.How strong we bounce will tell me how much lower we go before we hit bottom. Dennis

[endisnear]

I do not claim to have your technical know how but if this is still a bull market do you really expect to see nasdaq break through this level the first time it hits it? I am not a bull or a bear. This can easily be a good retracement for the nasdaq before it goes back up to try to break this resistance line. Even if we are now in a bear market I would be suprised if nasdaq only tries one time to break through this area and just gives up here. Time will tell. Short term we are very oversold and I expect a bounce.How strong we bounce will tell me how much lower we go before we hit bottom.

Dennis

Ultimately, all that matters is earnings. Mkt has had this tremendous run b/c of the suprise in corp profits in the face of all this risk out there.

Look at the comeback Dell had Friday. Closed higher in the face of the selloff. Consolidation will continue and large caps will benefit.

I think we'll see Naz 2600 before 2300.

[SemiBizz]

I'm not real interested to know whether someone else thinks we are in a bull or bear market. I am agnostic, primarily because I do not engage in "holding" positions. I am a trader. I am only interested in short term support and resistance points. The methodology I use helps me to identify those pivots. I can then make an assessment as to the probability of the projected price behavior off those tests. I use terms like "bullish springs" and "bearish upthrusts" in identifying volume/price divergences. Again, my style is to go in to a position with "brute force" with the express intention of either being stopped out on a very tight stop or towards a measured support(short) or resistance(long) target. Overall my objective is to return to cash as soon as possible. I subscribe to the belief that if you stay involved long enough, the market makers will take you the cleaners sooner or later, like they did this week to the long term bagholders. As to whether or not we go back up and try to test that 2618 again, I am also agnostic. I do think that it is probable however, because volume highs and low always beg to be tested, over and over... I will collect the volume data at the swing point pivots on each test and try and determine whether or not a divergence is in place that will set up another trade. Overall, I have to be skeptical of moves with no quality of volume such as the rally we had off the bottom in July. I will also be skeptical of any further move down if volume dries up, set appropriate stop levels to lock in profits on my short positions. While I realize that this board is obsessed with the bull/bear argument... I do not have a dog in that race. I'm just here to pull cash out of the market...

Edited by SemiBizz, 03 March 2007 - 01:28 PM.

[qqqqtrdr]

I don't see massive downside here, but down through Tuesday on the short term. The market is oversold short term, I do see a little downside yet, but the downside should be bought until the oversold nature of the market is at least back to Neutral. CPC 10-day average is getting extremely high which is bullish. I expect we see a nice upside reaction wave mid-week. Barry

[no_mind]

This entire exercise is a rationalization of that single trading day. Here we are more than 6 years later and we still can't get back over that high... and what is 2618 about?... it's about a .50 retracement off the high of Nasdaq in March 2000...

Here's a view from 300,000 ft I found over at Tim Knight's blog. His chart shows we've yet to make it to 38.2% at 2645.67.