Jump to content



Photo

Will Bullish Zealots Be Purged?


  • Please log in to reply
3 replies to this topic

#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 03 March 2007 - 12:48 PM

I used to subscribe to Gene years ago and he was bullish more than not, and often rightly so.
But lately, the few letters I have read in New Market Analysis Area, he has been cautious.
Will Bullish Zealots Be Purged? Is the title of his 2/15 letter.

"...It isn't fair to suggest we dispute bullish fundamentals; in fact we argued this thrust of a friendly monetary policy by the Fed when few others did during the crucial 2001-'02 timeframe. It hasn't changed; but an excess of those joining the chorus of celebrants 'now realizing' this five-year-plus old fiscal philosophy has developed, is what needs correcting. So that's the point here; we're not secular bearish; just desire a correction.
"...Overall continue to think major Senior Indexes ideally reverse anytime; considerably so maybe.
"...it's the shorter-run that is so extended that historically not having correction is inherently dangerous. It's preferable that the adjustment occur sooner rather than later, for a bullish longer-term healthy condition to prevail.
"...As a matter of historical note it's only when everyone's 'already in', because optimism reigns supreme, that matters can be 'rocked' by events other than a market valentine.

(Sounds like he's talking sentiment.) ;)


PS: Gene has always contended that crashes come from OVERSOLD markets!
Gene's 2/28 comments:
"If more than a mild adjustment; things may rebound (and will rebound) periodically, but when/if they fail and for the second or third time (more) take-out the initial lows, risk of a plunge of serious magnitude..."

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 March 2007 - 01:41 PM.


#2 hiker

hiker

    independent trader

  • TT Member*
  • 12,118 posts

Posted 03 March 2007 - 01:00 PM

I can tell you that subscribers to Larry Williams have benefited from his recent calls for futures trading...he was correctly positioned ahead of this decline on Tuesday. It is easy to write stuff, but those who trade position in advance of market moves are to be respected. on that note, mss, has provided this forum the necessary cautionary data via his chart work on "BOP" etc....he provided this routinely over time so we could all be familiar, and provided it well ahead of major market moves such as occured on Tuesday mss does this with little fanfare mss is the quiet wisdom here we could all benefit from reading...and he does not charge us for this data so readily shared. hats off to this forum and to mss.. Mark called this to our attention only a couple weeks ago when mss posted his prior complete chart work update just prior to the most recent ones

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 01:04 PM.


#3 nimblebear

nimblebear

    Welcome to the Dark Side !

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,062 posts

Posted 03 March 2007 - 01:02 PM

Pretty interesting. The last paragraph summed it up best.... "All the 'terrific' discussion about Fed policy or inflationary moderations are irrelevant if the international situation collapses, or the market does; for which there is precedent, irrespective of the prevalence of an optimistic unanimity. As a matter of historical note it's only when everyone's 'already in', because optimism reigns supreme, that matters can be 'rocked' by events other than a market valentine." Enjoy the evening, Gene
OTIS.

#4 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 26,863 posts

Posted 03 March 2007 - 01:13 PM

mss does this with little fanfare
mss is the quiet wisdom here we could all benefit from reading...and he does not charge us for this data so readily shared.
hats off to this forum and to mss..


There is something to be said for his years of experience.

:clap: