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#1 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:11 PM

FCX has been a beauty for swing trading the price channel..there have been several major price channels for swing trading since the end of 2002

in Selecto's poll below, I posted an article link and some thoughts expressed by others such as Eric Bolling of the Nymex that commodities are in the early years of what history shows are 11 or 12 year bull runs in commodities (btw, Eric has stated on numerous occasions to avoid FCX because gold plays are better bets in his opinion that copper plays...he does not seem to think a bottom in housing has yet stabilized)

FCX shareholder vote for the PD merger is coming up on March 14...see link under "what's new"on home page

http://www.fcx.com/


FCX will become even more of a copper-oriented play with the PD acquisition....see PD product profile at the end of this post.

copper commodity futures peaked in May 2006 over $4 when gold and other commodities/equities were peaking, and copper then retraced to establish some resistance zones in the mid to upper $3's and then the lower $3.00's..last week copper traded 2.70's or so.

I wonder about FCX post the merger...and wonder about copper's fate in the years ahead...sure right now the focus is on the "housing slowdown" and on potential lower economic growth in China, India, Asia, etc.

note the FCX uptrend off the 2000 low to the May 06 high...with one period of somewhat horizontal basing from late 2003 to late 2005 when the next breakout occured.,.that breakout price level was backtested by the 2006 low (the longt-term weekly support trendline was violated by that spike low but price quickly recapture the upsloping price channel), and the price action following the 2006 low leading up to the PD merger vote this March appears to be in a somewhat horizontal price channel...

will a FCX price breakout or breakdown from that horizontal or upsloping price channel eventually occur?

will copper prices in future years likely head back up to test the $3.30 to 3.70 price levels again...and higher? or will copper prices be long stuck in a range-bound price zone?

since the 2006 low for FCX, higher highs and higher lows control the price pattern[u]..Monday's test of the $61.78 Nov high failed because price immediately reversed when equities declined on Tuesday

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?fcx

this recent action is market related, but what was price action thru Monday's close attempting to suggest long term about copper commodity prices, and the future potential price action for FCX once the overall market stabilizes?



Phelps Dodge Corporation engages in the production of copper, molybdenum, molybdenum-based chemicals, and continuous-cast copper rod worldwide. The company operates in two divisions, Phelps Dodge Mining Company (PDMC) and Phelps Dodge Industries (PDI). The PDMC division has five copper production segments in the United States, including Morenci, Bagdad, Sierrita, Chino/Cobre, and Tyrone; and three copper production segments in South America consisting of Candelaria/Ojos del Salado, Cerro Verde, and El Abra. These segments include open-pit mining, underground mining, sulfide ore concentrating, leaching, solution extraction, and electrowinning. In addition, the Candelaria, Ojos del Salado, Morenci, Bagdad, Sierrita, and Chino mines produce gold and silver; the Bagdad, Sierrita, and Chino mines produce molybdenum and rhenium; and the Cerro Verde mine produces molybdenum and silver. This segment also developing a copper mine in Safford, Arizona; and a copper/cobalt mine in the Katanga province in the Democratic Republic of Congo. PDMC�s Manufacturing segment consists of conversion facilities, including smelters, refineries, and rod mills. It also purchases and sells copper. PDMC�s Molybdenum segment produces molybdenum, with mining, roasting, and processing facilities that produce molybdenum-based chemicals, molybdenum metal powder, and metallurgical products. In addition, it roasts and/or processes material on a toll basis. The PDI division consists of Wire and Cable segment, which produces engineered products principally for the energy sector in Latin America, Asia, and Africa.

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 02:22 PM.


#2 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:57 PM

btw, Monday's close for FCX was actually above the November high, and the volume candle was above average, while lower than only 4 other daly volume candles since early Oct..

the price action on Monday prior to the market selloff may have been stating something about what may follow for the future of FCX price action...and note this on Friday...read it and you will note it is based on the upcoming PD merger -

3/2 prior to the market open

• Freeport-McMoRan upped to buy at Deutsche Bank
at MarketWatch (Fri 5:57am)


analysts are often incorrect, yet DB seems to have a better record than many

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a record of some of my posts re: FCX since October -

http://forums.techni...post?id=1437452

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 02:58 PM.


#3 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 03:30 PM

the upgrade link -

http://biz.yahoo.com..._note.html?.v=1

this excerpt is shown only because of my above musings about copper prices..not because I am relying on the analyst to be correct -

But the analyst also sees a firming in the copper market during 2007, after an exceptionally robust year in 2006.

"The market has now firmed and we expect 2007 to be another strong year," Martin wrote. "The scrap market has tightened, some restocking is occurring and we expect supply growth to remain an issue in the near-term."

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this next article is about copper demand in China...as stated by the analyst above, supply is what to be concerned about ...copper inventories were at 3 -week highs last week if memory serves -

http://www.marketwat...n...o&dist=yhoo

excerpt -

Last year the country used four million metric tons of copper, or about 22% of the world's supply. That's up from 10% a decade ago, according to industry estimates.

another excerpt -

Citigroup analyst John Hill, who calls his research team "ardent adherents of the commodity supercycle", noted that the commodities market had entered a mature phase that required more selective investing among metals companies.

"We see metals as rotating from the commodity momentum phase of 2004-05-06, to more conventional value investing criteria," he wrote in a note released Wednesday.

"We believe this favors quality, 'best of breed' names, over the turnaround stories that dominated in the early, commodity momentum phase," he wrote.

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 03:45 PM.