All this crash talk makes me want to barf
#1
Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:15 PM
The market now and in 2000
http://www.decisionp.../McOsi9610.html
The market in 1987
http://www.decisionp.../McOsi8295.html
You need to look at the summation index of the NYSE at those times and now and other similar sell off times like 1966. What these show us is that what made these selloffs possible was a declining summation index and ones that are well below 2500. Also we just came off of all time highs in the NYSE A/D line. There have never been crashes or even a bear market that started at these levels. Can it be different this time? Time will tell but on a short term technical basis we are very oversold. So a bounce first. The strength of the bounce will tell us alot of how much further we go down. If we do enter a bear market this year I would expect a retest of these highs one more time to sucker more people into it since there are soooooo many bears already so early in the game. I think we go lower on Monday but should bottom at that point.
Dennis
#2
Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:38 PM
#3
Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:42 PM
The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Just the facts mame.
The market now and in 2000
http://www.decisionp.../McOsi9610.html
The market in 1987
http://www.decisionp.../McOsi8295.html
You need to look at the summation index of the NYSE at those times and now and other similar sell off times like 1966. What these show us is that what made these selloffs possible was a declining summation index and ones that are well below 2500. Also we just came off of all time highs in the NYSE A/D line. There have never been crashes or even a bear market that started at these levels. Can it be different this time? Time will tell but on a short term technical basis we are very oversold. So a bounce first. The strength of the bounce will tell us alot of how much further we go down. If we do enter a bear market this year I would expect a retest of these highs one more time to sucker more people into it since there are soooooo many bears already so early in the game. I think we go lower on Monday but should bottom at that point.
Dennis
why is it that so many also expect that 'one more'/'last' whatever test of the highs-g..like it HAS to happen..same w the crash stuff
#4
Posted 03 March 2007 - 02:47 PM
The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
yes it does, but would you really want it any other way, mkt gives the bears an inch, now they want
a mile. For a bull looking for new mkt highs, this board right now should be a symphony for the senses,
even though reading it might make you do something really crazy, like sell.
As for cnbc/cramer, i would be very surpised if they ever said anything bearish about the mkt, not in
their job description. A pretty face with a soothing voice to fill the time between commercials.
#5
Posted 03 March 2007 - 03:06 PM
The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
yes it does, but would you really want it any other way, mkt gives the bears an inch, now they want
a mile. For a bull looking for new mkt highs, this board right now should be a symphony for the senses,
even though reading it might make you do something really crazy, like sell.
As for cnbc/cramer, i would be very surpised if they ever said anything bearish about the mkt, not in
their job description. A pretty face with a soothing voice to fill the time between commercials.
PNF...you've had somereally good calls lately...
I don't recall you posting an opinion for ST. Any opinions?
#6
Posted 03 March 2007 - 03:07 PM
#7
Posted 03 March 2007 - 03:54 PM
#8
Posted 03 March 2007 - 04:01 PM
thank you,
The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
yes it does, but would you really want it any other way, mkt gives the bears an inch, now they want
a mile. For a bull looking for new mkt highs, this board right now should be a symphony for the senses,
even though reading it might make you do something really crazy, like sell.
As for cnbc/cramer, i would be very surpised if they ever said anything bearish about the mkt, not in
their job description. A pretty face with a soothing voice to fill the time between commercials.
PNF...you've had somereally good calls lately...
I don't recall you posting an opinion for ST. Any opinions?
imvho, unless you are a hardcore bear who wants to eek out every last dime
from the downside, correction is over and new highs are coming up.
A month ago i posted on my blog that there was 6-8% risk on the downside and
1-2% of upside left. Now we have the opposite, except there's unlimited upside, but only
1% downside(if that), i would take those odds any day of the week.
#9
Posted 03 March 2007 - 04:23 PM
thank you,
The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
yes it does, but would you really want it any other way, mkt gives the bears an inch, now they want
a mile. For a bull looking for new mkt highs, this board right now should be a symphony for the senses,
even though reading it might make you do something really crazy, like sell.
As for cnbc/cramer, i would be very surpised if they ever said anything bearish about the mkt, not in
their job description. A pretty face with a soothing voice to fill the time between commercials.
PNF...you've had somereally good calls lately...
I don't recall you posting an opinion for ST. Any opinions?
imvho, unless you are a hardcore bear who wants to eek out every last dime
from the downside, correction is over and new highs are coming up.
A month ago i posted on my blog that there was 6-8% risk on the downside and
1-2% of upside left. Now we have the opposite, except there's unlimited upside, but only
1% downside(if that), i would take those odds any day of the week.
Pnfwave,
What is keeping you bullish ? Chart ?