13 replies to this topic

[CLK]

hi CLK..his site

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/

Thanks.

[Frac_Man]

Not when it is forecasted. Heads up ......

The crash talk on this board is thick and heavy. Black monday 1987, etc. As I stated in an earlier topic I am not bearish or bullish longer term but if you are going to talk crashes then lets compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges. Just the facts mame.
The market now and in 2000

http://www.decisionp.../McOsi9610.html

The market in 1987

http://www.decisionp.../McOsi8295.html

You need to look at the summation index of the NYSE at those times and now and other similar sell off times like 1966. What these show us is that what made these selloffs possible was a declining summation index and ones that are well below 2500. Also we just came off of all time highs in the NYSE A/D line. There have never been crashes or even a bear market that started at these levels. Can it be different this time? Time will tell but on a short term technical basis we are very oversold. So a bounce first. The strength of the bounce will tell us alot of how much further we go down. If we do enter a bear market this year I would expect a retest of these highs one more time to sucker more people into it since there are soooooo many bears already so early in the game. I think we go lower on Monday but should bottom at that point.

Dennis

[n83]

I think perhaps some are missing the point I am trying to make from a technical point of view. It can always be different but the McClellan summation index and the NYSE A/D line do not support a bear market or crash at this time. I have looked at the patterns XD&COX and the fractal patterns FRAC MAN are alluding to and these patterns do not necessarily have to play out. If the A/D line and Summation index were showing weakness at this point then a crash could occur or a bear market be starting. Time will tell . The sentiment on this board is very bearish and I have been following this board since about 2002. My experience is that when I see this much bearishness it is close to a bottom not withstanding the quality of traders here which I have the most respect for ( including XD&COX AND FRAC MAN )

Dennis

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Edited by n83, 03 March 2007 - 09:02 PM.

[OEXCHAOS]

It's just on this board, so please calm down. This board, comprised of mostly "timers," has always had a somewhat bearish bent.

Just look at what virtually everyone else is saying on CNBC, in your neighborhood, at work. From my informal survey, most people believe the CNBC/Cramer line, which is that this is just a temporary downturn, one that we will recover from quickly because the economy is sound yadda, yadda.

The problem is that not enough people are panicking like the few perpetual bears on this board.

I would never use this board as a barometer for general market sentiment!

People who don't know Traders-Talk well almost always think this is a "bear board." Over the past few years, I've told people about this board and almost everyone who's ever come to this board for the first time has always commented that this is a board full of bears. We all know that the market has been in a rip roaring bull phase over the past 4 years but if anyone were to look at this board during this period, there were always very loud bears that appeared to predominate over bulls.

So, my point is, this board is NOT a gauge for general market sentiment. I come for the occasional interesting tidbit but never to use it as a gauge for market direction, either as a direct or contrarian indicator.

The world is a lot bigger than www.traders-talk.com!

If you look at the polls, this board is quite Bullish, considering the damage. I have to tell you, it is my considered opinion that this board is an accurate representation of a significant segment of market sentiment.

By no means would I rely on any one segment alone, of course, for a sentiment guage, but this one is a good one. It's also not "amateur, dumb-money" either.

Mark

I think perhaps some are missing the point I am trying to make from a technical point of view. It can always be different but the McClellan summation index and the NYSE A/D line do not support a bear market or crash at this time. I have looked at the patterns XD&COX and the fractal patterns FRAC MAN are alluding to and these patterns do not necessarily have to play out. If the A/D line and Summation index were showing weakness at this point then a crash could occur or a bear market be starting. Time will tell . The sentiment on this board is very bearish and I have been following this board since about 2002. My experience is that when I see this much bearishness it is close to a bottom not withstanding the quality of traders here which I have the most respect for ( including XD&COX AND FRAC MAN )
Dennis

Dennis, look at the actual position poll. For weeks and weeks and weeks we've had less than 20% fully short Bears with but a few exceptions. With all the weakness last week, we STILL have an even split between Long Bulls and Short Bears.

As one who knows, this does not support your thesis. I'm not saying that you're overall conclusion is wrong, only that this bit of data that you site to support it is quite incorrect and suggests more weakness.

Best,
Mark