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#1 CLK

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 04:46 PM

Unprecidented.




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#2 mmm

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:15 PM

I know everyone is going to jump on me for being bullish but every single one of those volume spikes was at or near a major low. Is it going to be different this time? That is, is this the beginning of a major decline or are we near the end of one? The size of the spike may be unprecedented but what about the implications?

#3 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:20 PM

note where this price decline has paused so far relative to one of the rising tops t/l's..connecting the early 2004 high with the spring 2006 high...using the early 2005 as the starting point also produces a t/l of interest

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 05:23 PM.


#4 Rogerdodger

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:21 PM

but what about the implications


Thats the $0.064 question. I think it's very significant.
I believe some very big players were caught.


($0.064 Joke from Selecto) :lol:

Edited by Rogerdodger, 03 March 2007 - 05:24 PM.


#5 ed rader

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:21 PM

I know everyone is going to jump on me for being bullish but every single one of those volume spikes was at or near a major low. Is it going to be different this time? That is, is this the beginning of a major decline or are we near the end of one? The size of the spike may be unprecedented but what about the implications?


could be just a "compressed" sell-off and once we get through the weekend with no event it's to da moon! but then again the selling could begin in earnest next week.

sure there's plenty of crash talk here but i really don't see a lot of concern yet.

ed rader

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#6 selecto

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:28 PM

You seen one fat boy, you ain't seen 'em all

#7 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:39 PM

SPY has not had more than a 4 box reversal on the PnF chart since 2003

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?spy

granted, a 5 box reversal or more now is less of a % reversal than a 3 box was in 2004, etc

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 05:39 PM.


#8 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:12 PM

At the beginning of February, when everyone was all bulled up...

I wrote this: Nasdaq - Price and Volume Trend for Februaries..., Pullbacks on lighter volumes

My expectations were for a pullback on lighter volume. The market had something else in mind this year.



Mid-Month Nasdaq - DeMystified., 2496.97 test complete... 2438 next... then 2394.

At this point we still had the light volume I expected but we did not have a new high.

Feb 15th:

If you've followed my posts here on TT, you know that other than missing this last low by 6 pts, my forecasts and turn projections have been on the mark. You can verify that information in my blog, link below. Now to me, we're in a sideways consolidation move. There are two possible outcomes - 2251 or 2618. We are in the middle of those numbers now, If you read far enough in my blog you'll understand how I derived those targets. Typically - February monthly candles are a pullback on lighter volume. If in fact February does end up higher on the monthly, we're set for a megatop in March, which would more than likely turn into a down month on volume. Really and truly, if you are bullish long term on Nasdaq, you do not want to see a new high on the monthly on light volume, because that could mark a I.T. top. I'm not looking for the End of the World here, I'm talking about a pullback/consolidation to test that important 2438 volume low before we either test 2394 (bullish spring setup on light volume) or move sideways into March.

February 16th

The best case for the bulls here is to pull this market back on this light volume and test the monthly 2394 low on light volume THEN spring it !

I also wrote this:

If the monthly wants to turn into a bearish upthrust, that really is FINE with me... because I know what will happen in March.


And in fact we did get over the Nasdaq high on lighter volume, instead of a March blowup that I was certain would come, we got it in February... Now, when we look at charts, no matter what charting method you use... we have to give more weight to the signals we get in the longest time frames. A monthly signal is pretty powerful.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


[/color]Let's go back a year ago and look at March. March 2006 was the highest monthly reading since when? January of 2001 (if you read my posts you know that I see this trading range we are in as critical to what happened in Jan 2001).. In April 2006 we take the high out on lighter volume (bearish upthrust), and in May down on heavy volume....So you see, some of us were not surprised by this reaction, albeit coming a few days earlier than our expectations...And now we're in the midst of a strong dive on heavy volume. So what does the Nasdaq want to test here on this heavy volume? It is the low of March 2006 or 2239. Now May was also a month of heavy volume. If we continue on quality of increasing volume on the daily and weekly charts we will eventually test the May 2006 low or 2135.I can't find any reason to be bullish except for in a shorter timeframe, where we could have countertrend rallies. And why? Because the Monthly Chart has already broken down on what I perceive (barring the markets closing completely - which is a small, but scary possibility) to be a breakdown on huge volume

Edited by SemiBizz, 03 March 2007 - 06:16 PM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics

#9 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:30 PM

hi SB..so you are only going to exit your profitable QID on a move back below what QID level? I am assuming you plan to stay in the trade and let the profits run unless it moves against you by a certain margin... I realize the most recent 53.50 low was near when QQQQ tested horizontal at 43.60...

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 06:34 PM.


#10 SemiBizz

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:38 PM

hi SB..so you are only going to exit your profitable QID on a move back below what QID level?
I am assuming you plan to stay in the trade and let the profits run unless it moves against you by a certain margin...



Has less to do with margins and more to do with violating the lows on volume. Looking at the chart below, any test on extreme volume below the volume spike low (54.10) takes me out of the trade. A light volume test creates an add opportunity with the objective of testing the high of the candle 57.38. Having said that, I would also analyze the two underlying issues for a confirmation of any signal (QQQQ and Nasdaq Composite, some would use NDX, I prefer Composite). Any light volume penetration over the high of 57.38 would be a signal to lighten up and reload at lower prices.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif


This is a great looking chart at present, what we like to see - up on volume, higher highs, higher lows, pullback on lighter volume...

Edited by SemiBizz, 03 March 2007 - 06:45 PM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics  http://parler.com/Volumedynamics