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#1 nimblebear

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 05:49 PM

But..... A lot of people who stuck it out in post 2000 crash have been handsomely rewarded by sticking with buy and hold. Many other people have joined the fray. It has been said you don't have a true finish to a bear market until most everyone literally shuns stocks. I don't think we've ever come close to that in the past 6 or so years. '87 felt worse than '01/02 in my book. But it was just a blip on the map overall. It may be we are still in a long term secular bull driven by boomers on a smaller scale, and global factors on a larger scale. There is so much pent up demand for everything, and India and China two very large population countries are likely in the early stages of a long period of strong economic development. While our imports exceed exports our exports are still increasing from the past. We are and will remain benefactors of the global surge. Plays like McD's, Walmart, Starbucks, Coke, Bud, Phillip Morris, and on and on have well established international presense. Its tough to make it abroad but many good American companies have figured it out. As long as we don't become isolationists, our presence in other countries will likely increase. Maybe the world will slow down a bit, and maybe we will correct 20 or 30%, but I would bet we are much higher in 2010 than we are now in most of the major indices. And maybe the dollar will fall a lot more, but it would be correcting large imbalances. So based on a world slow down, a recession could be a reasonable and plausible consideration in the next year. I heard the other day there is over $130 trillion in notional value of derivatives. Those kinds of numbers are mind-boggling. I don't know what the heck it means if anything. I know Buffett didn't think it was good. If somehow these derivatives start causing massive problems worldwide, then maybe the capital spigot will dry up. Barring a meteor crash in the Western hemisphere, I think it would be worthwhile to start lining up targets for longer term holds. With volitility increasing, and the market correcting, traders should be in heaven.
OTIS.

#2 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:00 PM

speaking of Buffett...he put some of his cash to work in USB..and he is risk adverse in his investment selections...

USB is on my shopping list for stocks to reenter long at some point..the price level has not yet been backtested.. where it was trading prior to the announcement of the dividend increase making it the highest div yield payers of US banks

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?usb

the div news in Dec and some USB charts at the time -

http://forums.techni...post?id=1573724

$34 to 34.75 is the first horizontal zone to watch for long entry...just one of them, and you can see on the chart the top of that range was already bought on Tuesday's market selloff

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 06:06 PM.


#3 nimblebear

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:12 PM

speaking of Buffett...he put some of his cash to work in USB..and he is risk adverse in his investment selections...

USB is on my shopping list for stocks to reenter long at some point..the price level has not yet been backtested.. where it was trading prior to the announcement of the dividend increase making it the highest div yield payers of US banks

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?usb

the div news in Dec and some USB charts at the time -

http://forums.techni...post?id=1573724

$34 to 34.75 is the first horizontal zone to watch for long entry...just one of them, and you can see on the chart the top of that range was already bought on Tuesday's market selloff


Yeah, I heard he has something like $40 to $60 billion sitting in cash or cash like instruments. Phenomenal !
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#4 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:20 PM

magic of compounding (which requires not consuming or spending the trading profits along the way..which is the Buffett way....he and his wife still live in the same house they bought for 38k many years ago)

money doubled -

000's omitted

$5k initial trading account
10k
20
40
80
160
320
640
1,200,000...so 5k becomes $1M after 8 doubles (CCJ or the uranium juniors easily helped accomplish this in last 3-6 years)

2,400
4,800
9,600
19.200,000

38,400
76,800
153,600
307,200
614,000
1,228,00 a $billion is achieved with 18 doubles within a tax deferred trading account such as an IRA or other retirement plan

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 06:26 PM.


#5 hiker

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Posted 03 March 2007 - 06:53 PM

heck buying the simple shoe company...DECK..near its recent spike bottom and holding into last week resulted in a 277% trading profit.

If DECK has been sold at $68 recently...the $5k initial purchase would now be 18,800 assuming the trade was bought at $18 above the spike bottom and sold near last week's high

http://stockcharts.c...llery.html?deck

anyone remember CYD and TASR and NFLX and RIMM and GOOG NDAQ CME ICE when they were trending hard? 2002-2006

there is a reason some stock trends get more attention than others..especially when trading within a tax deferred account

I could give you a list of the 2006 trenders, but I posted that list here for about 3 years without much interest...so am now sending it out nightly by email to my friends.

Edited by hiker, 03 March 2007 - 06:44 PM.