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#1 A-ha

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 02:47 PM

i saw this trend line shown on a few web sites, it was drawn slightly different to give the impression that it is still holding...to me, implications of this deception simple...an army of bagholders stuck in this swamp...no i am not talking about those who will see this as a bull market till SPX takes out 1200, i am talking about those short term , even intermediate term traders ...but the truth is the following chart.
if SPX drops 20 more points tomorrow, total loss from top to bottom will be about 100 points... That is exactly the total point loss seen during the summer massacre that took months... only this one took 5 trading days! if you call this a corrective move, you seriously in need for a TA101 as soon as possible. And no, this aint 90s!
there is a significant meaning of that %96.7 down/up volume day for the long term, i suggest you to do little research on this instead of getting sentimental about sentiment that can be very deceptive when used by amators like some blogger that got it hard way lately. I have only seen a few people using sentiment professionally, one of them is the owner this site who is also top rated by timer digest, jason goepfert is another one.
in short, i am not saying we will not bounce, of course it will eventually happen, i think even the test of the highs or marginal highs possible over the intermediate to long term (if we dont crash next week), just like 2000 but it will first take some bottoming and digestion before it happens.


Posted Image

Edited by xD&Cox, 04 March 2007 - 02:54 PM.


#2 arbman

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 03:39 PM

xD, it is neither I guess, it will not crash, but it is not going higher starting next week either. I think a lower low is in order for the next 2-3 wks of some sort, then probably higher. There are many stocks that are showing their first momentum blow offs that will probably see a retest of the highs soon. This will probably happen with the increasing new lows and declining new highs, then the downtrend can begin...

I still favor this scenario I posted few days ago. So I am in favor of shorting the first rally attempt we will get, then flip to long. So far all of these have been bounces within the downtrend which go to show the intensity of this decline. I agree this is a very intense decline and something has been broken somewhere...

- kisa

Edited by kisacik, 04 March 2007 - 03:41 PM.


#3 ed rader

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 03:40 PM

i saw this trend line shown on a few web sites, it was drawn slightly different to give the impression that it is still holding...to me, implications of this deception simple...an army of bagholders stuck in this swamp...no i am not talking about those who will see this as a bull market till SPX takes out 1200, i am talking about those short term , even intermediate term traders ...but the truth is the following chart.
if SPX drops 20 more points tomorrow, total loss from top to bottom will be about 100 points... That is exactly the total point loss seen during the summer massacre that took months... only this one took 5 trading days! if you call this a corrective move, you seriously in need for a TA101 as soon as possible. And no, this aint 90s!
there is a significant meaning of that %96.7 down/up volume day for the long term, i suggest you to do little research on this instead of getting sentimental about sentiment that can be very deceptive when used by amators like some blogger that got it hard way lately. I have only seen a few people using sentiment professionally, one of them is the owner this site who is also top rated by timer digest, jason goepfert is another one.
in short, i am not saying we will not bounce, of course it will eventually happen, i think even the test of the highs or marginal highs possible over the intermediate to long term (if we dont crash next week), just like 2000 but it will first take some bottoming and digestion before it happens.


Posted Image


XD - are you saying it's march 2000 all over again?

ed rader

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#4 mss

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 04:19 PM

:) For those of you who take a quick look at XD's charts, KEEP in mind they are Logarithmic (Percentage) Scaling. Trend lines drawn on log charts sometimes can be tricky to understand. mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#5 CLK

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 04:20 PM

How can we leave the possibiltiy of a rally towards the highs if it is truly an impulse ?

#6 A-ha

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 04:34 PM

XD - are you saying it's march 2000 all over again?

ed rader



I think this will be unique...sharp and powerful relative to 2000... I know I said this before but there is nothing changed in my opinion.... only getting more convinced by the plunge.


mss:

below is the linear version of it

Posted Image

Edited by xD&Cox, 04 March 2007 - 04:37 PM.


#7 Caduceus

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 04:38 PM

:)
For those of you who take a quick look at XD's charts, KEEP in mind they are Logarithmic (Percentage) Scaling. Trend lines drawn on log charts sometimes can be tricky to understand.
mss


MSS,

Are you saying that it is not broken on a linear chart?

As far as I can see it is broken on a linear chart as well, although it is not as clear (by about 3-4 spx points).


Thanks for all work you share, please update us when the BOP turns up...

Regards,

C

#8 A-ha

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 05:25 PM

xD, it is neither I guess, it will not crash, but it is not going higher starting next week either. I think a lower low is in order for the next 2-3 wks of some sort, then probably higher. There are many stocks that are showing their first momentum blow offs that will probably see a retest of the highs soon. This will probably happen with the increasing new lows and declining new highs, then the downtrend can begin...

I still favor this scenario I posted few days ago. So I am in favor of shorting the first rally attempt we will get, then flip to long. So far all of these have been bounces within the downtrend which go to show the intensity of this decline. I agree this is a very intense decline and something has been broken somewhere...

- kisa



kisa,




the following is by Alan Farley

---------------------------

Our newfound humility after that correction should give us the will to explore the broad range of opportunities that are setting up in this new environment. But it's equally important to be extremely patient and let the new price patterns mature before risking our capital. That process could take a few weeks or months, given the huge size of this week's selloff.

The current dynamics go back to the "shock spiral" concept outlined by Tony Plummer in The Psychology of Technical Analysis: Profiting from Crowd Behavior and the Dynamics of Price. In this classic book, the author notes that large-scale market shocks take a circular path that yields repeated and volatile waves of price action over time.

This is the action/reaction cycle that will play out in the major indices in the weeks ahead. These pattern mechanics should initiate the inevitable recovery attempt, followed by a failure that tests the deep lows of this selloff. Finally, this volatility should give way to a new trend, which will most likely be to the downside.

#9 Dex

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 06:17 PM

xD&Cox, Thanks for your contributions - you are bringing Technical Analysis back to the board.
"The secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that, you've got it made. "
17_16


#10 mss

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Posted 04 March 2007 - 07:05 PM

MSS,
Are you saying that it is not broken on a linear chart?

As far as I can see it is broken on a linear chart as well, although it is not as clear (by about 3-4 spx points).

Regards,
C

No, just pointing out that you have to be fully aware which scale is being used on a chart so that a quick visual does not lead to the wrong conclusion. Not everybody uses "log" and some switch back and forth.
Just a caution to some people lurking etc. who might/have jumped to the wrong analysis.
"Log" based charts are great for large scales, but then it is a percentage move that is being desplayed.
mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!