4 replies to this topic

[CLK]

My observation is the market cratered from an oversold hourly that was trying to turn, that caught alot of traders wrong I believe. There is just something about this market I don't like anymore. I have an order in to sell my 401k holdings, which I can't change for another 60 days. The magnitude of the volume coupled with the compressed time interval and the amount of price drop, along with the MACD formation has the appearance of a crash in the making. I don't have access to breadth and VIX data over the last 100 years, so I really don't know for sure what happens next. What I am convinced of is that no cycle turns out exactly the same as something before. Right now I think few are looking for a crash, that ought to surprise most. I think there is a market, world shock event out there somewhere about to happen, I just have a feeling and may be nothing to it.

[hiker]

Hi CLK

the top posts in this section include some relevant data and analysis by Randy -\

http://forums.techni...618?forum=62869

Dave or fib..has some relevant data and charts here -

http://forums.techni...618?forum=11515

Edited by hiker, 04 March 2007 - 10:52 PM.

[Jnavin]

NYSE McClellan & Summation.

[Rogerdodger]

Nothing wrong with caution.


From Fari Hamzei:

Given the high readings we have empirically observed last week in our Volatility Indices, for market timing purposes, go to CASH for a minimum of two weeks -- past the March Options Expiration (Friday, March 16th) and the Spring Equinox (March 21st, 00:07 GMT).

Market participants should expect massive vol expansion at or near this March Expiry, while historically speaking, Spring & Fall Equinoxes, have often been a time for key reversal days in the equity markets.

[Trend-Shifter]

I would watch the stock market sell volume in relationship change in the strength in the Yen compared to the dollar. If stock market selling volume goes up everytime the Yen strengthens, then it must be the "carry trade" unwinding or hedge funds having to cover their leveraged positions.