Jump to content



Photo

Uranium


  • Please log in to reply
20 replies to this topic

#1 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 15 March 2007 - 11:01 AM

Posted Image

Up from $72 as 2007 began, from $40 a year ago, from $21 starting out 2005, from $10 in 2002, and from the low of $7 in 2000. Can I get a :redbull: ?

Posted Image

This is a good proxy for junior resource stocks, many energy issues, and most uranium stocks. A nod of the head to Cirrus, who was the first person I saw mention this. It made a double top with last May on increasing volume, and now is correcting like the stock market in general, the CDNX on decreasing volume. Most uranium stocks have the same pattern lately. I see nothing to indicate the long term picture isn't bullish. When stocks bottom as a whole (a good and tough question IMO) I think another great buying point for most uranium issues will be at hand.

Posted Image

One of my favorites, and a best performer. Trades on the AMEX, too -- I know that makes a difference to many people. Advance/Decline still quite positive. The trend is emphatically up. CMF looking good on balance. MACD histogram has already bottomed and begun "ticking upward." Making higher lows since the spike down in February. Looks like the big Green Light is shining on this one.

What can go wrong? Well, more selling pressure than buying pressure can drive the share price down. I don't have much strong confirmation that the general market has bottomed, yet, after a correction that's been so short in terms or time. But things for FRG are much more bullish than bearish overall IMO, and if it's tracing out a pennant or contracting triangle then it may be close to popping higher from it, and resuming the overall big bull.


Posted Image

Has traded on the NYSE as EMU since late November. Last time I felt as bullish as what I think is coming was in October. We'd had a good correction and things were turning up.

Posted Image

The second to last time I felt as bullish was in late 2005. Had a buy order in that Paladin came within 7 cents of but did not hit. I bought on the open the following day. It remains to be seen if this supposed great buying opportunity will pan out. I don't feel confident that it's right here, right now, yet. We may have a larger and longer and more complex correction to go through, from the highs in February. But I think the stage is set and that it really bears watching now.


Posted Image

A ripe one, methinks.

My main basket of uranium stocks, Stockcharts symbols: AXU.TO, AZM.V, DML.TO, EMC.TO (EMU on NYSE), FRG, FSY.TO, JNN.V, LAM.TO, MGA.TO, PDN.TO, SAN.V, STM.V, SXR.TO, U.TO (new high today Yeah Baby), UEX.TO, your.TO, UUU.V

URZ is worth watching. Hiker says big short interest and it looks similarly bullish to me.

Even more speculative stuff: WRI.V under 0.15 last October, $1.05 last price I see today. A 7-bagger plus. This one was mentioned long ago by TomD here at FF, may he rest in peace. Thomas DeChastelain. He spoke of it in Nov. 2005 when it was .085

KRI.TO Cirrus brought this one up, and like everything else mentioned here I own some. Looks good to me as do the rest.

PXP.V too.


Best,

Doug

#2 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 15 March 2007 - 11:57 AM

Posted Image

This one has not had the good performance of many other uranium stocks. It was over 1.00 in both 2005 and 2006. It has stuff going on in a few parts of the world, and recent assays from Niger were not all that impressive. Weather is often a problem in the far north of Canada where NWT also operates.

That said, the chart looks pretty good from last September's low as I see it. A meandering corrective phase this year so far may be nearing an end. A ride back up to 0.85+ would be worth it, and another leg up as happened from September to January doubly so.

With the background of continued price increases for uranium oxide and the lack of true speculative fever and public participation as of yet, IMO anyway, I think the bullish potential is there. Daily chart looks half-decent while the weekly hasn't turned up yet.


Doug

#3 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 15 March 2007 - 03:13 PM

Posted Image

Not purely a uranium stock, though it owns 14% of Aurora Energy Resources, AXU.TO, no slouch indeed.

This has been a powerful stock and it looks very timely to me. It too has had a meandering corrective phase, perhaps a double zig-zag as labeled above.


Doug

#4 hiker

hiker

    independent trader

  • TT Member*
  • 12,117 posts

Posted 16 March 2007 - 06:53 AM

great review and comments, Doug. thank you.

#5 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 19 March 2007 - 01:41 PM

Posted Image

Timeliness confirmed, all systems GO. I like this one for everything -- technicals, fundamentals (I encourage anybody that's interested to read over the website, etc., do one's due diligence and so forth). Up nicely today on big volume, this for me is a buy-and-hold for now. The future's so bright (IMO) I gotta wear shades.


Best,

Doug

#6 hiker

hiker

    independent trader

  • TT Member*
  • 12,117 posts

Posted 19 March 2007 - 02:14 PM

thanks, Doug -

http://www.altiusminerals.com/

#7 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 19 March 2007 - 02:45 PM

You're welcome, Steve. The risk with Altius as I see it is global economic slowdown, which can't be ruled out. In no way is this or most that I have "defensive," and slowing economies can mean a true shellacking for share prices. In the meantime I'm very content to hold stuff like it as world population increases and world per-capita usage of resources goes up too. So of course there is risk, oh yes there is risk, no matter how good it looks. The price chart rules. Doug

#8 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 20 March 2007 - 11:17 PM

This is the kind of thing I like. Not saying rush and buy this. Have to check into it more myself, and the "buy on news" is already priced in. Last time I mentioned something out of Resource Investor that caught my eye was Forsys Metals, which then went up 143% in two months. It's still more than a double as it corrects that fast rise -- looking good for the long-term still. For me this is something to watch and learn about, and perhaps make purchases.

Doug



St. LOUIS (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Uranium explorer Bayswater Uranium Corporation [TSXv:BAY] and Kilgore Minerals Ltd. [TSXv:KAU] announced a merger Tuesday, to create a company with 10 million pounds of historical uranium resources and have $40 million of operating cash.

News of the merger caused share prices to increase for both companies. Bayswater share price increased 8 cents per share or 5%. Kilgor Minerals increased by 7 cents per share or 4.7%.

Robert Bishop, editor for the Gold Mining Stock Report, said the merger will combine the exploratory project of Bayswater with the resource-rich assets of Kilgore.

"The merger of Kilgore and Bayswater is a marriage of a deep value play with a broadly diversified exploration company, a company with a far-off-the-market's-radar-screen profile with a company whose market profile has been high and now can be expected to be higher," said Bishop.

The resulting company will control Bayswater's dominant land explorations in four sites in Canada and one in Africa, as well as Kilgore's four sites in the United States that have historical uranium resources with near-term production potential. The merger will also combine base metal and gold asset mines in Ireland and California.

Based on a 1:1 share exchange, the premium that Bayswater commanded over Kilgore peaked out at 89% on February 23, and commonly traded in a band between 45 and 65%. At the time of the announcement the premium stood at 7.4%, according to Bishop.

"For those unhappy with the seemingly disappearing premium, it's worth noting that Kilgore made another new annual high this morning-$1.73-and Bayswater is currently trading 32% below its high of one month ago," he said.

What Bayswater brings to the table is seven projects in various stages of development.

The Labrador, Canada project is a searching for the right to obtain 1.1 million acres in the Central Mineral Belt uranium district. A $3.2 million exploration program comprising airborne surveys and follow-up prospecting in 2006 identified numerous uranium mineralized zones which will be drill tested this year.

Its Athabasca Basin project is 1.7 million acres produced 62.5 million pounds U3O8, and the high grade Shea Creek uranium deposits. A $4.5 million exploration program is planned for 2007 including a deep penetrating VTEM survey in order to identify favourable basement conductors, followed by targeted ground geophysics, prospecting and up to 10,000 metres of drilling.

The Thelon Basin project is 3.7 million acres representing 33% of the available ground in the basin. An $8.1 million exploration program is planned for 2007 to identify additional favourable targets by airborne geophysical surveys and to evaluate targets by ground geophysics, prospecting and up to 10,000 metres of drilling.

The company’s Newfoundland project is in 418,000 acres in southwest Newfoundland. An airborne survey over a portion of the property in 2006 identified numerous low level radiometric anomalies. Further airborne surveying is planned for 2007 with follow-up prospecting of high priority targets and drilling if warranted.

The Niger, West Africa project is searching for the rights to acquire 100% interest in 2.0 million acres in two separate blocks of prospective uranium exploration concessions are anticipated to be granted shortly. Once the concessions are granted, Bayswater plans a $1.8 million program of airborne surveying and follow-up prospecting and mapping to define drill targets.

Aggressive planned exploration expenditures of approximately $20 million on Bayswater's uranium properties in Canada and Niger in 2007 should significantly advance projects towards the resource stage, according to the company.

According to the Kilgore Mineral Ltd. website, the company has 12 uranium properties in the U.S. The average grade of U308 being pulled from the sites is 0.141%. Of the four main sites in Montana, Nevada and California, Kilgore and historical uranium reserves of about 10 million pounds.

Bishop said that Kilgore’s release of uranium before the market of “approximately 10 million pounds ... is a conservative figure that can be expected to grow substantially.”

"I believe this is a conservative figure that can be expected to grow substantially, assuredly from within Kilgore's existing portfolio, as well as from any measure of success on Bayswater's aggressive 2007 exploration program," he said.

According to Bishop, the Bayswater/Kilgore merger is a case of “opposites attract.” He said that Kilgore has been a company of unknown assets, but always a considered a good value under president Norm Burmeister.

The merger will combine the solid assets of Kilgore with the exploritory and financial backing of Bayswater, a company's whose stock price has ebbed and flowed during the past three years.

“Those who have recovered at least their investment from Kilgore can either go for the ride with the new Bayswater, post-merger in May, or take profits into strength. Except perhaps for those who have deferred any profit-taking in Kilgore, there is no urgency to take money off the table,” Bishop said.  

“As in the past, the stock can be expected to be a volatile trader, and taking money out of Kilgore should be limited to periods when the market is rewarding Bayswater for the market visibility that Kilgore never enjoyed,” he added. 


I've been hoping to see this kind of thing, but now I wonder if it's symptomatic of a top in the market or at least the end of the easy money. I think individual stocks will do much better than the fund. IMO Cameco will be a drag, and though I like BHP, Rio Tinto and Areva, on balance, they're huge-capitalization stocks and I don't think the potential is there as with many smaller stocks. Paladin, Denison and SXR I own and like a lot. I think buying those three, for example, will far outperform the fund.

Doug

TORONTO (CP) -- Investors who are hot on uranium are being offered a new vehicle powered by that nuclear fuel with the $195-million initial public offering of the Uranium Focused Energy Fund [TSX:UF.UN].

The TSX-listed fund will concentrate on the securities of uranium miners and others in the sector, ''supplemented with the securities of other energy-related issuers,'' says fund promoter Middlefield Group [TSX:MBN].

It is aiming for an initial annualized yield of five per cent, plus long-term capital gains.

Middlefield Energy Management Ltd. will collect an annual fee of 1.1 per cent of assets as manager of the fund, whose Canadian-listed holdings include Cameco Corp. [TSX:CCO], Paladin Resources Ltd. [TSX:PDN], Denison Mines Corp. [TSX:DML] and SXR Uranium One Inc. [TSX:SXR].

Foreign holdings include global players such as BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Areva.

The fund is designed to capitalize on expectations that primary uranium supply from mines will fall short of demand while secondary supplies from sources such as stockpiles and decommissioned nuclear weapons will decline.

''In light of the significant capital and time requirements associated with the development of new uranium mines, the adviser expects uranium prices to remain strong over the life of the fund, which will terminate on Dec. 31, 2013,'' Middlefield stated Tuesday.

The issue of 19.5 million units at C$10 each was underwritten by a crowd of investment banks co-led by CIBC World Markets and RBC Capital Markets and including all of the other big Canadian chartered banks as well as Middlefield Capital Corp., along with Blackmont Capital, Canaccord Capital, Dundee Securities, HSBC Securities, Raymond James, Wellington West Capital, Desjardins Securities, Berkshire Securities and Research Capital Corp.

The underwriters collected a fee of five per cent of the offering price - C$9.75 million - and investment dealers will get ongoing fees of 0.4% annually on the value of fund units held by their clients.

Uranium Focused Energy units traded Tuesday afternoon at C$9.72.

#9 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 22 March 2007 - 10:59 AM

Posted Image

Nice - 27% increase in a week. Altius is not only a play on uranium; there is gold, nickel, and other base metals involved. So much the better I say.

Only two of my main basket of uranium stocks have broken to new highs, and I think we are still in "correction" mode from last month.

Doug

#10 PorkLoin

PorkLoin

    Member

  • TT Member*
  • 2,194 posts

Posted 23 March 2007 - 04:27 PM

Posted Image

My main basket of 17 was up today by an average of 3%, but Mega, which I though looked "ripe" last week, has been disappointing. It was down today, along with AZM.V (down a penny).

I now think that the bottom for the March price correction in uranium stocks is in, and for most of the issues I follow it was that spike down very early in the month (March 5). The stock market in general turned up with a vengeance, so it all fits.

Mega made a lower low March 14th, and hasn't been able to get it going to the upside. I don't like how the CMF and A/D look right now, but at least the volume has been going back down on this move down/sideways. Still a good long term hold, IMO, but Mega is requiring more patience than most right now. Is that MACD curling back up...?

On the flipside is FSY.TO, purchased for 3.65 in mid-December, closed today at 10.20.

Altius spiked up to 14.25 yesterday, closed at 13.49 today. This thing is probably due a good breather in here somewhere -- yesterday's high was up 53% in 13 trading days from the March 5 low.

Posted Image

Here's that new uranium stock fund. It's on the Toronto exchange, and nothing much has happened yet. A $1,600,000+ Canadian hour to start off, puny - I know, and then volume swooned. Good buys early on, though. I requested Stockcharts to carry this one, and Glory Be today it's there (UF/UN.TO), even though it's a fund and Stockcharts says it doesn't do Cdn. funds. I want to keep an eye on this one as the great everlasting bull market in uranium stocks goes along because it's not actually everlasting and maybe we can divine some clues along the way.

Best,

Doug