6 replies to this topic

[hiker]

Warming temperatures from 1981 to 2002 cut the combined production of wheat, corn, barley and other crops by 40 million tons per year, according to the peer-reviewed study published in Environmental Research Letters on Friday.


http://money.cnn.com...rce=yahoo_quote

excerpt -

The cereal crops hit by global warming account for at least 55 percent of non-meat categories consumed by humans, according to the study. They also contribute more than 70 percent of the world's animal feed.

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population growth combined with reduced grain production...must be more that one trade setup in the making on this trend?

agricultural land prices are going up in price...by large % amounts and suddenly in some places, as hedge funds and a variety of investors see the writing on the wall...on this note -

ag land in the Idaho side of the Teton valley is some of the richest and remains pristine with good access to water rights from a variety of rivers (pumping stations exist in some cases with large diameter underground pipe that distributes water from the river source throughout the valley)....relatively no population and little access at the moment by residential developers....Dreyfus family bought extremely large tracts bordering this ag land in the 80's and Paul Allen of Msoft has his "place" of luxury in this same area..these 2nd and 3rd generation farmers are just now looking to cash in, tho' development is nearly restricive because of the fire codes requiring large fire ponds to service each rural community that is proposed....new farm buyers can still making attractive purchases here.

Edited by hiker, 17 March 2007 - 12:36 AM.

[hiker]

this is a photo I took of where one of the major pumping stations is located on the Teton River that services the agricultural land mentioned above...the local utility has a small hydro power generating facility two miles downriver from this location -

this photo was taken at summer's end after most of the irrigation water has been pulled out of the river, and the mountain snow melt which is the river's source needed another winter...

Edited by hiker, 17 March 2007 - 01:31 AM.

[mss]

excerpt -
The cereal crops hit by global warming account for at least 55 percent of non-meat categories consumed by humans, according to the study. They also contribute more than 70 percent of the world's animal feed.

Having grown up with these crops in the deep South, I find this statement hard to accept. We grew and harvested these crops in temperatures that ranged from summer highs at 93* to some summers that went as high as 103*. Global warming has not been proven to be a 10* increase so far much less a swing in up to down range.

Having lived in the area for two years I can relate to land price increase and I find it very troubling that the beauty of the area might be compromised for population growth.
Politics aside, the land will not wind up as farming, but subdivison growth. Just look at Wyoming.
Best to you,
mss

[hiker]

S..good comments and thank you. The Teton Valley ...Wyoming side near Jackson, WY..is like a different planet from the rest of Wyoming. example ...Sheridan county in North Central WY has a little over 20K population in the entire county and the ranchland remains not much different than when 8 million bison made their annual migration in the area....most of WY still looks like this because of the lack of water, and those water rights that do exist have been tightly parceled out from each mountain reservoir to each rancher group that controls the water rights. Heck , a golf course cannot even exist in the few resort areas contained within WY unless they are able to secure water rights from those currently controlling those rights. Southern Idaho is a different story than WY because the Snake River is a large body of water that flows the entire East to West direction across the state (btw, the south fork of the Snake has its first primary reservoir system Jackson Lake located in WY near the SE corner of Idaho...the Henry's Fork of the Snake has its first primary reservoir system Henry's Lake located in Idaho near the MT border) Idaho is one of the fastest population growth areas in the country, while WY remains far behind at my last ck.....must have something to do with water and the number and volume of river flows that exist in each area.

[PorkLoin]

Oh man the west is the BEST. Beautiful, Hiker.

I wonder where it will all shake out for the grains. Lots of corn being planted for ethanol, corn has gone from $2 to $4 a bushel, less acreage to be put into soybeans, gotta be bullish for the bean complex.

Lots of people around the world not only eating more, but as in China eating fast-increasing amounts of meat, which takes much more grain to produce than if people eat the grain directly. US Census Bureau predicts world population to grow 11 - 12% in the next ten years, as well.

No crystal ball here, but demographic trends, weather, etc., all appear to be making water, especially potable water, more dear and more in demand. For the "big picture" macro/megatrends, long-term investing decisions, I definitely think water has a place. It goes from little niche players all the way to a behemoth like GE, which is doing a lot of good stuff with water purification and production; just wish the rest of GE could be separated out.



Now the off-topic part. Hiker, way back when (I was 23 years old) I was in the Grand Teton area, close to the mountains. There's a little town called Moose, I believe, and north of there I parked off the road and climbed up the eastern slope of the mountains enough to get some good views and pictures. I was in shape for going uphill -those were my mountain-climbing days - but that is some STEEP terrain. Got high enough to see nice layouts of the lake to the north.... That is one sweet area.

Doug

[hiker]

hey there Doug..we just returned from a day in the Teton Park..took many photos from Jackson Lake area north of Moose...will post some another day in this thread for your enjoyment. See ya Monday.

[hiker]

link to post with 3 of the photos we took today...this link destination will be deleted by Monday a.m. -

http://forums.techni...post?id=1771647

Doug, is that Mt. Moran in photo no. 2 representative of "steep"...the slot in the very middle top of the mountain is volcanic or granite rock melted into a wedge formation with other surrounding mineral composition...I do not remember right now if the wedge is basalt or granite...I think basalt while the surrounding is granite.

Edited by hiker, 17 March 2007 - 09:31 PM.