7 replies to this topic

[mdwllc]

Established positions in energy sector: 5% in IVAN and 5% DBE....MDW

[PorkLoin]

Good luck, MDW. I think it can go either way here.



This kind of has me worried - at least that a correction could be near. We're overbought and the breadth in energy stocks has weakened lately. Same for the stock market as a whole, and it looks like a good time for a slackening tide, although it's just about exactly a year since last year's May stock market high and that's suspicious to me.

I haven't sold anything based on this but I'm wary, for now. (Yes, even as uranium oxide just went up another $7 to $120.00 per lb. )


Best,

Doug

Edited by PorkLoin, 08 May 2007 - 03:48 PM.

[mss]

Someone much smarter than I has suggested that coal stocks have bottomed after a year consolidation. May be worth looking at and below is some old standby's, others may provide better action.





ps Doug, I just doupled my position in PNP.TO monday fwiw

[mdwllc]

Doug: Technically, I got in a day earlier than I wanted to because they picked me up; I have the crude cycle low coming in today or tomorrow 5/10....MDW

[PorkLoin]

MDW, crude bottoming sounds mighty good to me. I like the look of the MACD histogram here, and maybe we get an upturn for real, soon. Past four months have had some big volume up days and the decline of the last three weeks hasn't really corrupted that, I'd say. Looks like a "normal" correction thus far, but I'd like to see the support under 1.9 hold. If not then another 10 or 15% down would be expected IMO.

On the Toronto exchange - IE.TO - it made a slightly lower low this month than in late March and early April and I'd say it's looking good for a double bottom. Just needs to turn up soon.



Double bottom looks decent here too, and yesterday's action looks nicely bullish, at least in the short-term. Some big-volume down days recently though. Overall, oil stocks have done pretty well recently, while the price of oil has struggled for six weeks.



It's been a rough year for royalty trusts but things have changed recently. Peyto has a safe dividend of almost 9%, very low cost of production - less than $3 Cdn. per barrel of energy equivalent, long reserve life, and great management - it's a very good hedger. I love this for a long term energy hold and as a play on natural gas.

I rode it all the way down to the bitter bottom and back up - I'm not trying to time the market here, and it's been a fantastic long-term hold, paying good dividends all along, despite the price high being clear back in 2005 over 34. Weekly chart has turned up with a pretty good vengeance.



Harvest also trades on the NYSE as HTE. This one has really surprised me. Still yields over 14% even with the recent stout share price rise. I don't think the dividend is nearly as secure here, though -- Harvest's payout ratio is pretty high, and oil (2/3 of production) needs to at least hold or better yet go up more. It bought a refinery last year and the business, along with marketing - unusual for a trust - has gone better than expected. A bunch of new shares were sold and yesterday's announcement is the cause of today's move down, IMO. No biggie, I'd say, even though it was quite overbought short-term.



Great management, able to focus on profitable areas and be agile about it.

"Pinetree is a diversified investment, financial advisory and merchant banking firm focused on the small cap market. Pinetree's investments are primarily in the resources sector: Oil & Gas, Uranium, Precious Metals and Base Metals.

Pinetree's investment approach is to build a macro position in a sector, find the micro-cap opportunities in that sector and work with those companies to build them to commercial production and create an exit."

ACI, BTU and CNX are the three coal stocks I watch, and danged if I know why CNX has outperformed the other two so much. I've liked BTU among them, but CNX is rolling. I like them all for the future.

Doug

[mdwllc]

Doug and MSS: Yes I have been looking at the coal too, and I have been a little perplexed by the action myself...so I haven't established any positions as yet. I still maintain that my Crude forecast into 2008 looks pretty good...some softness this summer but should become parabolic this Fall when the trouble starts in the Mideast. I have been establishing some in the alternative energy field, have 5% in Ballard [BLDP]. My work indicates that this should start to move pretty soon....MDW

[dasein]

we need some more of these in the royalties: Torch Energy Royalty Trust (TRU :Torch Energy Royalty Trust Last: 8.02+1.65+25.90% TRU8.02, +1.65, +25.9% ) shares surged 26% to $8 in Thursday morning trade after Trust Venture Co. announced that it has launched a tender offer for all the outstanding units of Torch Energy at a price of $8 each. Trust Venture currently owns 315,600, or 3.7%, of Torch's outstanding units. End of Story klh

[PorkLoin]

Hey KLH, Yeah -- merger mania continues. Oil & NG & precious metals. I saw today that there is talk of Denison and Energy Metals Corp being takeover targets in the uranium sector. They're both over a billion Dollars in market capitalization so it's not just penny-ante stuff. Big doin's are afoot. Best, Doug