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KKD weekly


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#1 hiker

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Posted 10 May 2007 - 12:30 PM

see PnF chart in this link -

http://stockcharts.c...allery.html?kkd

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#2 SilentOne

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Posted 10 May 2007 - 05:55 PM

hi hiker, I have been following KKD on and off here. No positions taken, but I note a possibly 9 and 18 month cycle nest of lows is possibly due this month. There are other technical metrics that look interesting (A=C leg ~ 7.2, and a 61.8% retrace of the 1+year rally ~7.8). I haven't studied this stock in depth, but what are your thoughts here? I have noted mss has posted on KKD as well. Is this a real stock, or just a traders momo stock? cheers, john PS. I remember seeing a hiking photo of you and your dog a while back. It was very impressive.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#3 hiker

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Posted 11 May 2007 - 04:37 PM

hi John, how are you? it is a real stock. it is also a momo stock when it is trending. speculation (expectations of future changes) accounts for some of the trading movement. I have traded it since the IPO days....at the time was living a short few miles from its HQ in Winston-Salem, NC....in my experience, it is a speculators' stock since the IPO days. Since Scott Livengood left the company KKD has been in transition. My main theme for trading decision right now in KKD is to attempt to maintain a long position when the entry price is low enough... I entered today. Will bail near breakeven and try later if price moves below today's low. Selling moves up has been the profitable path in recent mos. Regards...

Edited by hiker, 11 May 2007 - 04:37 PM.


#4 hiker

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Posted 11 May 2007 - 04:53 PM

6 to 6.30 would be a good entry based on horizontals alone. you may want to check out INT....I carried it short through earnings this week, and flipped short to long today. May be early, so time will tell.

Edited by hiker, 11 May 2007 - 04:54 PM.


#5 mss

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Posted 11 May 2007 - 07:23 PM

hi hiker,

I have been following KKD on and off here. No positions taken, but I note a possibly 9 and 18 month cycle nest of lows is possibly due this month. There are other technical metrics that look interesting (A=C leg ~ 7.2, and a 61.8% retrace of the 1+year rally ~7.8). I haven't studied this stock in depth, but what are your thoughts here? I have noted mss has posted on KKD as well.

Is this a real stock, or just a traders momo stock?

cheers,

john

Hi john,
This stock is exactly what Hiker says it is. It also is one of those rare stocks that if you have some long term money you can let sit for a while it is worth holding when bought at low prices, JMO.
It is also a good swing stock if you watch it close enough :P good pocket change. B)
Best to you,
mss
PS: getting close to polish the silver time.
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!

#6 SilentOne

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Posted 14 May 2007 - 08:02 AM

Hi guys,

KKD is an interesting prospect, but I know very little fundamentally about how they are doing.

From a broad Hurst perspective, it looks to me like KKD is heading into a 9 & 18 month nest of lows this month. I don't have time to look closely at the weekly chart right now and this monthly was done pretty quickly. The VTL break (grey line) confirmed the 18 month cycle top and the 9 month FLD break opened lower targets. I'll have to look at the daily/weekly for a more precise target. The 9 & 18 month cycle tops were right translated which is bullish.

I am test driving my Hurst learning here. Please DO NOT take any of this as bona fide Hurst analysis.

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PS: mss on the metals, if they can't bounce gold and silver off the levels seen last week, we will head lower for a while yet. I'm still cautious.

cheers,

john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#7 SilentOne

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Posted 21 May 2007 - 11:05 AM

Rise and fall of biggest Krispy Kreme franchisee Commentary: Story holds lessons for others thinking about franchising a hot concept By Herb Greenberg, MarketWatch Last Update: 10:30 PM ET May 20, 2007 SAN DIEGO (MarketWatch) -- If you ever are thinking about buying a franchise for a hot concept, you first might want to check with Rich Reinis and his son-in-law, Roger Glickman. Until a few years ago, their Great Circle Family Foods in Southern California was the biggest and most successful of the Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD : krispy kreme doughnuts inc com) franchises. Both had quit their day jobs Reinis as a lawyer and Glickman as director of real estate for Sony Theatres and appeared to be living the American dream. "It was a fairy-tale opportunity," Glickman says. Their first unit opened in 1999 on the site of a failed Kenny Rogers Fried Chicken restaurant in the Los Angeles suburb of La Habra. "It was staggeringly successful," Reinis says. Compared with the average independent doughnut shop in Southern California that did $300,000 to $500,000 in sales a year, the La Habra store boasted sales of $141,000 in its first week; it did $9 million in less than 12 months. Within nine months, Great Circle opened a second store 35 miles away in Van Nuys. By then, Krispy Kreme was getting enough of a cult following that the imminent opening of the new store made it into Jay Leno's opening monologue on "The Tonight Show With Jay Leno." Opening-day crowds were so big in Van Nuys that "we had police all around us," Reinis recalls. "It was an unbelievable success, doing $211,000 in the first week." As word of Great Circle's success spread, Reinis started getting calls "from all over the world" inquiring about how to get a franchise. Pretty soon, "Lawyers were calling me and telling me how smart I was to get out of the practice of law," Reinis says. With the exception of their salaries, which were similar to what they earned in their old jobs, "We poured every penny back into the business," Reinis says. To keep up the pace of expansion, Reinis and Glickman made personal guarantees to finance the business; Reinis borrowed $1 million against his house. Were there red flags? "Sure," Reinis says, pointing to several, including company-owned stores that he believed were run "below acceptable standards," and the lack of a formal association of franchisees. "But when Krispy Kreme is on the cover of Fortune as the hottest brand in the country, you overlook them." By late 2003, and Glickman thought they were about to be rewarded for their risk. According to Reinis, they had been told by Krispy Kreme's former chief executive, Scott Livengood, that the parent company would buy Great Circle's 23 stores for $70 million. ( Livengood declined to comment; Krispy Kreme didn't return phone calls or emails seeking comment.) "In my head, I began spending the money," Reinis says. "We were going to be wealthy." Rather than buying Great Circle, Krispy Kreme paid $67 million to buy six stores from a group of former executives. The deal with Great Circle never got done. And despite slowing sales growth, Reinis and Glickman were bound by their contract to keep building stores or face a 15% surcharge on the price of doughnut mix. By the end of 2004, they had 31 stores and 1,400 employees. As Krispy Kreme's fortunes started to crumble, Reinis says the company started charging franchisees "outrageous sums of money" for everything they were required to buy from the parent company. Without a formal franchise group, he says, the franchisees were powerless. And with no deal to sell Great Circle, "I was panicking," Reinis says. He hired "the two best bankruptcy lawyers: one for me personally and one for the company," he says. "It was the lowest point in my life." In 2005, both Reinis and Glickman and Great Circle sued Krispy Kreme in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging, among other things, that the company overcharged Great Circle on products purchased from Krispy Kreme. The suits were later settled. Krispy Kreme subsequently bought three Great Circle stores for $2.9 million and Glickman avoided personal bankruptcy. Great Circle has been whittled down to 12 stores. Reinis and Glickman remain officers and directors, but Reinis, 62 years old, is back to the daily grind of being an attorney and a better one than before he went through this process, he says while Glickman, 39, is running a chain of laser-eye-surgery clinics. "We had to earn a living," Reinis says. If there is a lesson Reinis learned, he says, it is that if a franchisor is more interested in expanding the brand and making the parent company look profitable without considering the interests of or even at the expense of the franchisee "that franchisor will doom the franchisee." And the experience won't be sugar coated. Herb Greenberg is senior columnist for MarketWatch and contributor to CNBC television based in San Diego. He does not own stocks (except for shares of his employer), and he does not sell individual stocks short or invest in hedge funds.
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#8 SilentOne

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Posted 22 May 2007 - 10:36 AM

I bought a starting position in KKD today @ $8.41. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#9 SilentOne

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Posted 25 May 2007 - 12:44 PM

Stopped out. Will continue to watch. cheers, john
"By the Law of Periodical Repetition, everything which has happened once must happen again and again and again-and not capriciously, but at regular periods, and each thing in its own period, not another's, and each obeying its own law ..." - Mark Twain

#10 mss

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Posted 31 May 2007 - 08:49 AM

:)
FWIW, am buying in this area till bottom blue TL is broken to down side. But be very careful and watchful.
Hard stops will get gunned IMO. B)

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mss
WOMEN & CATS WILL DO AS THEY PLEASE, AND MEN & DOGS SHOULD GET USED TO THE IDEA.
A DOG ALWAYS OFFERS UNCONDITIONAL LOVE. CATS HAVE TO THINK ABOUT IT!!