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Dunnigan's Thrust method


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#1 airedale88

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:28 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.
airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

#2 claire

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:35 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.


Airedale, can you explain what the "one way formula sell signal" means -- one way straight down for the market???? thanks

#3 Islander

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:36 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.

================================================================

Volume Surges in S&P indicate high probablility of more selling in coming weeks. Today maybe 1520 holds for a little bounce before down again. But the Melt-up will go on as dollars leave bonds for equities for inflation hedge. Down side probabilites are 70% today. :unsure:

Best, Islander.

#4 ogm

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:44 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.

================================================================

Volume Surges in S&P indicate high probablility of more selling in coming weeks. Today maybe 1520 holds for a little bounce before down again. But the Melt-up will go on as dollars leave bonds for equities for inflation hedge. Down side probabilites are 70% today. :unsure:

Best, Islander.



Take a look at sectors. Absolute massacre in Oils, Real estates are all breaking down and a lot of them hitting new lows. Retailers also getting dumped for many days already. Take a look at JCP for example.

This market has been rotting underneath while everyone is staring at the DOW.

#5 arbman

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:47 PM

Down side probabilites are 70% today.


One of my most reliable models was indicating about 83% down today, but I am not a total believer of this decline yet, if it can put this performance two days in a row, yes then we can get more liquidation going in the intermediate term sense. Keeping the shorts for now...

Edited by kisacik, 20 June 2007 - 02:49 PM.


#6 airedale88

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 02:48 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.


Airedale, can you explain what the "one way formula sell signal" means -- one way straight down for the market???? thanks



yep, straight down the tubes. LOL. just kidding. it's the name of a trading system. check this amazon page for some info.

http://www.amazon.co...s/dp/0273630962
airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

#7 airedale88

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 03:00 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.


Airedale, can you explain what the "one way formula sell signal" means -- one way straight down for the market???? thanks



claire, a little more info...........


One-Way Formula for Trading in Stocks and Commodities (1957)
William Dunnigan’s greatest discovery was his one-way thrust method. The method became very popular soon after it was published, and remains the basis of many trading systems today.

Dunnigan’s approach, like many other successful approaches, was to establish the direction of the longer-term trend, then to look for patterns that would signal a trade when a countertrend move was completed.

William Dunnigan looked at the relationship between two to three successive time periods. He called these ‘barometric movements’. His barometric movements were as follows:

An Up-Week - …both the high price and the low price this week are above the respective high and low prices of the preceding week.
A Down-Week - …both the high price and the low price this week are below the respective high and low prices of the preceding week.
An Outside-Week - …its high price is above the high price of the preceding week and its low price is below the low price of the preceding week.
A Long-Range Week - …[the bar] is followed by one or more weeks which are inside the range of this week - neither above nor below the Long-Range Week.
An Inside-Week - …its range is inside the range of the Long-Range Week.

(Mack, D. (Editor), Dunnigan, W., New Blueprints for Gains in Stocks and Grains & One-Way Formula for Trading in Stocks and Commodities, San Francisco, 1997, page 207.)

Dunnigan’s method firstly defined the trend. It then defined swing highs and lows in such a way that it allowed for market volatility. This ensured his method was adapted to the specific market conditions at the time.

His signals for taking trades were based on a range of proven charting patterns.

One-Way Formula for Trading in Stocks and Commodities is divided into two parts as follows:

Part I - One-Way Formula for Trading in Stocks
  • How to select stocks and chart prices.
  • How to recognise barometric movements.
  • A bird’s-eye view of One-Way Formula.
  • Repeat Signals.
  • Sell Signals.
  • Recognising the main trend.
  • How to recognise a possible change in the main trend.
  • How to recognise a real change in the main trend.
  • How to recognise a continuation in the main trend.
  • How to engage in practical operations.
  • Some practical considerations.
Part II - Trading in Commodities With One-Way Formula
  • Some special considerations in commodities.
  • Operating plan in commodities.
Appendix: Dunnigan’s Coaching Reports.


Conclusion
There is little doubt that William Dunnigan had an enormous capacity for research. He would learn from those who came before him, looking for ways to improve on their legacy to us.

To a large extent he was driven by the desire to develop a profitable mechanical trading system. It was this process and its outcome that led him to writing two classic books immediately before his death.

William Dunnigan was, without any reasonable doubt, a market master.

neil@marketmasters.com.au

[This article was first published in the Australian Technical Analysts’ Association Journal,
airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England

#8 Tor

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 03:01 PM

one way formula sell signals are set up for the major averages. needs a confirmation thursday.


Airedale, can you explain what the "one way formula sell signal" means -- one way straight down for the market???? thanks



yep, straight down the tubes. LOL. just kidding. it's the name of a trading system. check this amazon page for some info.

http://www.amazon.co...s/dp/0273630962

Air, how common are such signals, if I may ask?

Thanks.
Observer

The future is 90% present and 10% vision.

#9 geosing

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 03:14 PM

Hi Airedale,

Are you trying to confuse people? Is it Thrust or is it One Way? (some commonality there, of course, to use some Hurst lingo) :D

I trade corn using Dunnigan methods, introduced to me by Airedale. I do not trade index futures with it as my time frame is too short for this methodology.

If anyone is interested, I did a series of posts in Fib's Technical Watch, while I was studying and practicing trading this method. My thanks to Airedale for the Dunnigan tip and also to Fib for letting me ramble over there at Technical Watch.

Link to Technical Watch posts on Dunnigan One Way

If you happen to read the series, take anything I say with a grain of salt, as I am a trading novice and will probably stay that way forever. The source provided by Airedale is the material to read. Well worth it, in my opinion. Trend trading at its finest, with objective rules to help novices like me. You will be greatly disappointed, if your trading style demands a plethora of indicators and gizmos.


Geo

#10 airedale88

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Posted 20 June 2007 - 03:25 PM

Hi Airedale,

Are you trying to confuse people? Is it Thrust or is it One Way? (some commonality there, of course, to use some Hurst lingo) :D

I trade corn using Dunnigan methods, introduced to me by Airedale. I do not trade index futures with it as my time frame is too short for this methodology.

If anyone is interested, I did a series of posts in Fib's Technical Watch, while I was studying and practicing trading this method. My thanks to Airedale for the Dunnigan tip and also to Fib for letting me ramble over there at Technical Watch.

Link to Technical Watch posts on Dunnigan One Way

If you happen to read the series, take anything I say with a grain of salt, as I am a trading novice and will probably stay that way forever. The source provided by Airedale is the material to read. Well worth it, in my opinion. Trend trading at its finest, with objective rules to help novices like me. You will be greatly disappointed, if your trading style demands a plethora of indicators and gizmos.


Geo



hey geo. yeah, i guess i should just say one way formula, but it is derived from thrust method concepts. i had seminar notes from a presentation dunnigan gave and the one way formula was suggested as an offshoot of the thrust method less sensitive to whipsaws.



tor, i usually only look for one way signals when i expect a cyclic turn (for me, the cycles are the basis of my trading), so i might not be able to give an accurate count of their frequency.
airedale

Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".

Ring-Ouzel, England