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[thoughtpwr]

Berstein Seasonals have been a good guide in the last two months on Gold & XAU. Silver, which actually had a strength period (but which lost a little on the exact dates of trade), which has ended, as evidenced by the last week of Selling action. Many gold stocks have been weaker during this period and the Gold Sell has not ended and will not until 3/9. However, there is a third Sell that Begins on Monday's Close 2/23 and does not end until 5/4. The winning percentage is 77% and the average profit is 6.6% with Stop of $8. The kickoffs have been good for a selloff, even if the market rallied afterward. I noted Ord's comments on XAU holding up at 96 are in trouble based upon the increase in selling volume that has occurred on several stocks (GG, etc.) that have crossed their gaps on increased downside volume, whether or not the index holds. NEM will test that area tomorrow and is at that volume already. Failure to hold that area should lead to a lower thrust in the next week. The key is whether the support areas under 93 hold, and if they do I am thinking that there will be a rally after 3/9 closeout of those positions, which gives another retracement upward that ends pooring in early 5/4. I prefer a XAU move to 87 back to the top and then down again close to 90 by 5/4. That fits the presidential election time frames of weakness into 4/1-5/1 as well as the seasonals, with silver stocks taking more of a beating this time. EJ