39 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

I think its better to view these charts larger, I know that can cause problmes so i've put all options here to cover all the bases-

FYI - indicator is not price based, prefer not to 'splain it...I will say I primarily trade off of Trin, Volatility, volume, Tick and price..so just imagine its one or combo of those.

Things are going very much to my 'read' on sunday...down 15pts today before little rally off 1430 (which was critical as I said earlier..though I thought it wouldn't hold today)...so working into that 1450-1470 resistance as expected and building a sell signal. To avoid triggering the sell in next few hours/day will require another large upward impulse. Of course, thats possible as its still a buy until its a sell, but in my experience it doesn't pay to long this late in the signal.


Click on thumbnail to get large image


Link to full size
http://img367.images...72/aug20yo3.gif




Mark.

Edited by entropy, 20 August 2007 - 08:05 PM.

[EntropyModel]

This gave me a good chuckle this morning -

http://www.marketwat.....84416C896780}
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U.S. stocks off again amid Fed-induced anxietyBy Kate Gibson, MarketWatchLast Update: 10:37 AM ET Aug 21, 2007NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stocks turned lower Tuesday as awaited the outcome of a meeting between Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Secretary Treasury Henry Paulson and Christopher Dodd, the head of the Senate Banking Committee.

Earlier talk that the meeting might lead to a hoped-for rate cut faded ahead of the opening bell, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners. "The markets are anxious to hear from the group of three - the trinity - that are going to meet today," Cardillo said of the gathering between Bernanke, Paulson and Dodd, a Democrat from Connecticut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
Poised to open higher, U.S. stocks opened lower in the immediate aftermath of televised comments by Paulson, who told CNBC that the economy remains strong, but conceded that "what's going on in capital markets will take a penalty."
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What a hoot, " hoped for a rate cut"..from the now supernatural 'trinity'..great we need one a week now? no moral hazard here then....move along..nothing to see ...and "before the opening bell" no less! ....yes we can't have the masses getting in on it. ....but thank goodness "the economy remains strong"

Mark.

Edited by entropy, 21 August 2007 - 10:04 AM.

[EntropyModel]

FYI - this post is just a shameless excuse to make fun of music fashions.




http://img517.images...0/aug211ef1.gif


For musical accompaniment click this link - gotta' love those dance moves..

[hope its alright admin to link to youtube? please let me if not and i'll remove..]


Oh and while I'm in musical mode, which is often, as regards the endless talk now of FED interventions, saving the world, holy trinities, administrators walking on water....I think Thin Lizzy said it best:
"don't believe a word...cos' words can tell lies"

..er, love the tache Phil....my brother had one just like it playing lead guitar in his band back then..must remind him. ..and the hair..well, its just not right to make fun of that..tragic.



*best guess we chop until near the close to push to sell zone, then I'd be looking for a reversal to trigger the sell signal, we are working off some extreme short term bearish sentiment.

Mark

Edited by entropy, 21 August 2007 - 12:33 PM.

[EntropyModel]

FWIW my view is there still seems too many short term bears for any real decline here, and everything technical tells me upside is still limited to 1450-1470 before a downside retest ...so some more choppy frustration is likely...or a sharp move or two expanding range that then gets faded ending flat.....so i'm expecting no break out of 1430-1465 range tomorrow, even though all my stuff is now ready for a sell...there's still room for more chop and it would fit historical patterns for one more flatish close with a slightly wider range day tomorrow - then down thur/fri below 1430.....I am increasingly of the view frrom looking at technicals we will actually go below the 1370 intraday low, perhaps only intraday at 'some point', that point could be next week, or a couple of month but I favor sooner...but thats getting too far ahead. Mark.

[EntropyModel]

12:55 FYI - I will get a sell signal if we close the gap, and price upside looks done to me here...give a take a few...hit spx 1462 ..about expected little upside range expansion, now we are likely to close gap and take out yesterdays low around 1440...but expect we will close flattish as said last night...this would all fit perfectly to what I was thinking.... Oh and fractal-ewave-price pattern whatever you want to call it is clearly corrective abc off the low, with a ending diagonal just completed or will complete in a few hours with no significant new highs. i.e. if we break spx 1470 from here I am wrong on this...so thats a kind of stop area if I were shorting...which i am... Mark.

Edited by entropy, 22 August 2007 - 12:01 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Couldn't fil the gaps today so didn't get a sell, and market was surprisingly strong last couple of hours against what I expected....but still holding restistance at range 1450-1470 ..but I see there's yet another futures ramp job above resistance...which will complete the 'house of Gap' as below chart shows...



http://img503.images...56/aug22dc1.gif



Like I said last few days there remains too much short term bears..and I'm quite amazed to be seeing it again tonight...I had too much company..good company it must be said with the idea of shorting this afternoon....but there is also a change, because this potential gap up AM above ( which may or may not acutally happen)...seem's to me to be the 'sentiment flip-flop'...and the folks are falling over themselves now to claim they picked bottoms, are long..and the V is in.....all might be true, I'm just observing the change in sentiment.

So if we gap up, I'm looking to short it andfor that to close tomorrow...as it will likely be a 3rd exhaustion gap. As for a sell signal and shorting for that, I will post if we ever get one...we've rallied everytime its come close..didn't think it would take this many posts!!! ... ...quite amazing extreme reading now..as extreme as downside was....to short other than a gap...I am waiting for

1. Sells to occur, will post if it ever does
2. a clear corrective move

I don't want to post 'trades'..because its too distracting for me...but I will post the sells/buys from these signal generators just to show why I am thinking what i'm thinking...

Ugh...right..nuf said..



Mark.

Edited by entropy, 22 August 2007 - 11:48 PM.

[EntropyModel]

Nice little gap to short at open. As expected couldn't hold the gap more than a nano second...slight overthrow to 1472..but looks good for reversal and Also Finally got the sell from this decline....in some rare cases, a minor retest of the highs will occur, but that is low odds..anyway, its now on SELL. I will post charts later after close when I have time to show. FWIW looks like 5 minor waves completing testing to close yesterdays gap....but my expectation remains for today and tomorrow to be down to first test 1430..then lower eventually. Mark

Edited by entropy, 23 August 2007 - 12:09 PM.

[humble1]

interesting ! that works into my scenario of a possible important low near, or a day, after this coming lunar eclipse. remember the LUNAR ECLIPSE DECADE LOW of 1990 ?

[EntropyModel]

I've created a small public list at stockcharts so I don't have to keep copying these charts over, added one for NDX, and also a larger view with some stuff on it. I may add stuff over time..or not

Charts - these should update live with markets continously, I hope..i.e. hot link

I'll try ot hotlink them here, but I never have much like with that, plus they're huge - oops, get an error..it showed them but cannot post them ..due to not being a gif..oh well just follow da' link.

As said today, 5 down, looks like a completed or very near complete corrective at close, tomorrow *should be down*....but I cannot rule out one more minor high as per blue boxes to put in divergent top, espcially because futures showed a much larger wave.

Edited by entropy, 23 August 2007 - 10:48 PM.

[EntropyModel]

OK I think have figured out how to 'hot link this' ie. it should update here in real-time rather than having to goto stockcharts list....though I won't put al the charts here, just one's I've put comments on.



*just a note to say I think the Fearless Forecast sentiment polls are unrealiable right now, having followed them for at least 3years, there's just something wierd going on with fast more votes than usualr right after the poll opens..nearly all bearish...could be wrong, but thats my feeling. Perhaps some blog or website has reffered to it generated a bunch of newbie's, dunno', but Im not using it to guage sentiment right now. IT also doesn't gel with sentiment i'm seing elsewhere suc as odd lotters and Rydex.



Were in pre-labor day low volume b.s. mode this week..but sell signal is in effect, we have a brief backtest as blue box alluded to.....one way or another we will work our way to buy signal...where we stand by then will give me a bette read....so far, nothing has happened to change my view that is a corrective move off the low, that will not reach new all time highs before a retest of the low.....but we could be a range bound market for weeks here....so for trading purpose I just follow the technical signals and not worrying about the bigger picture for now.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=30&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=p59961123720&a=115172808&r=181.png