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#31 Entropy3.0

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Posted 29 August 2007 - 12:28 PM

So noted. Thus as I was trying to describe and will say another way: If the $NYMO puts in a lower low on the ensuing decline, that would be a tipoff for a larger bear - thus we need to see a $NYMO higher high to stay IT and LT bullish.

That should have read " a $NYMO higher low" ...
cheers,
john



Understood and agree John...a positive divergance yes, and no 'namby pamby' one either :) , the lowest the NYMO should get is around -50, if we go below that I will take it as bearish even if that positive diverged to the -100 we had on the thrust down.

I just noted on the live charts (see above couple of posts)...that todays action looks bearish to me...so I think we are going to get some answers within a week here, i'm looking for spx 1400-1415 to be tested before any upside can resume....then we will see if this is THE 'retest' the NYMO suggests well get...or whether there's one more upmove first...I don't have a view on that yet.

Mark

Edited by entropy, 29 August 2007 - 12:31 PM.

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#32 underabigw

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Posted 29 August 2007 - 06:29 PM

entropy, Do you use volume in your work? NYSE volume was over 20 to 1 up over down today. This high of a ratio is usually very, very bullish. I was wondering if you had an opinion about this or if it might have any impact on your analysis? Thanks, BW

#33 Entropy3.0

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Posted 30 August 2007 - 12:57 PM

entropy,

Do you use volume in your work? NYSE volume was over 20 to 1 up over down
today. This high of a ratio is usually very, very bullish. I was wondering if
you had an opinion about this or if it might have any impact on your analysis?

Thanks,

BW



I have a couple of useful Volume based buy/sell indicators.

But I do NOT analyse volume in the sense many so i.e. I don't worry about how much volume exists on rallies and such.

As for high volume ratio days being bullish?
I believe this idea came has taken hold from the award winning Lowry study by Paul Desmond, which looked at 90% down days followed by 90% up days marking important lows....its online somewhere if you google and well worth a read if you haven't read it.

But great as that study is, all indicators fail at times. The main reason for that can be simplified to 'what everyone knows isn't worth knowing.' So, when I see everyone on message boards, and newsletters talking about breadth and Volume, then I tend to ignore it. Whereas, I pay attension to what most people are ignoring - its sort of contrarian I suppose, but especially the last 2-3 years, just about every methodology has failed, I have stated I believe this is due to Internet and sudden availability of information - that's a whole topic.

If I were to describe my method its roughly as follows -

1. I use buy/sell indicators I've developed based on volatility, trin, tick, volume & price, primarily aimed at few hours to few days swing moves typical example is to look at few indicators I posted earlier on thread which update showing buy/sell lines). - I also have a real-time system I developed on Quotetracker that is pure short term momentum.

2. I will occasional IGNORE those indicators, based on sentiment, which I have alot of data for, I subscribe to Sentimentrader for some of it, I also guage sentiment from various message boards.

3. I use price patterns, and Elliot wave with my own fractal extensions, to look for entry points, find stops, and exit points - I NEVER enter trades based off these alone, only once the signals are on buy or sell - I used to a few years ago, and quickly discover its impossible to trade off them alone, and I've never seen anyone do it successfully, hence why Ewave gets such a bad rap....it has to be interpreted in CONTEXT i.e. within the technical & sentiment setup. I also use at support/resistance to look for entry/exists - I'm still trying to figure this part out, its constant learning...I think this is the hardest part....defining entry/exits/stops/money management.

4. I have a swing system based on dailies, IYB (don) generously shared a system, I used some of that and a few similar I have added..but I don't trade swing currently, but shorter term.....but its useful for context again.

* I suppose I should say what I don't use - well, mainly, I totally ignore anyone elses opinions, not because I think they are wrong, but because I've found you either trust your own system or you don't. If you don't trust it, well, your down the creek without a paddle, and if you do trust it, its a waste of time reading what others think , and will tend to make me doubt my own system because most traders are smart and convincing. But I do read alot of people's opinions, because I want to know how they're thinking to guage sentiment, or to pick up trading ideas.

Mark.

Edited by entropy, 30 August 2007 - 01:08 PM.

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#34 underabigw

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Posted 30 August 2007 - 05:16 PM

entropy, Thanks for the insight into your style/methods of analysis. It looks to me that your experience has led you to develop the science into an art. In other words, all the indicators and charts in the world can't give someone a "feel" for the market. That can only come with study and experience. Thanks again for a view of your world. I look forward to your future posts. BW

#35 Entropy3.0

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Posted 07 September 2007 - 01:12 PM

I just noticed, that those chart I hotlinked in this thread don't seem to update properly. :wacko: So I have changed my signature to link to the full chart list at stockcharts...see 'charts and comments' link below. Short term thoughts are on the charts - ABC completed off lows, might be DE wave to come...dunno' yet. Bigger picture - I see no change as per comments at start of thread, and as per MCO chart, still expecting we have a retest of the low ahead of us. * though the Nasdaq/Ndx on a different pattern ( see charts) with chance on retest of all time highs on a 5th wave, coinciding with wave E on SPX/DOW etc....maybe...we shall see. Mark.

Edited by entropy, 07 September 2007 - 01:17 PM.

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#36 relax

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Posted 08 September 2007 - 11:53 AM

Great charts! Which indicator is the one below the first chart - a sort of stochastic? your own? Do you have any time frame for your expected retest? Things are happening fast at the moment I'm thinking we get a retest this week (until sep 12) otherwise I think we go for retest of highs first Cheers

#37 Entropy3.0

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 11:15 AM

Great charts!
Which indicator is the one below the first chart - a sort of stochastic? your own?

stochastic

Do you have any time frame for your expected retest?



In the next 3-4 weeks looks likely now, base on historically similar examples and also current technical setup.

Shorter term - I read the tea leaves as more downside to come, when the indicators get this 'oversold', we usually need a divergent low...so a retest of SPX 1430 is coming today/tomorrow/wed I believe....then well see.

Mark.

Edited by entropy, 10 September 2007 - 11:16 AM.

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#38 Entropy3.0

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Posted 10 September 2007 - 02:43 PM

Just an FYI - something interesting I observed and sometimes have mentioned:
*edit: that is, all I can say about it is its 'corrective', but I cannot count it', it is not a fractal/ewave, its an anomaly.

Posted Image

Edited by entropy, 10 September 2007 - 02:49 PM.

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#39 Entropy3.0

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Posted 11 September 2007 - 02:53 PM

I've changed a few charts around an updated some stuff. That unnatural pattern I showed continued this morning...I forgot about 9-11, I guess it might have something to do with that, will find out tomorrow ... but I added a count as best it can be counted at a higher level, with a the wave completing around 3.30, and we've dropped off since so looks right-ish. Mark.
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#40 Entropy3.0

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Posted 13 September 2007 - 01:29 PM

I created a blog to put intra-day comment updates, to point out chart updates etc.... because I think this thread is getin' confusin'.....will just post longer term swing type comments here...



Mark.
Pick a system, follow the system, ignore everything else.