3 replies to this topic

[flyers&divers]

please vote

[Maxwell]

F&D, I'm wondering how this daily poll is interpreted. A couple of days ago, I believe you mentioned that market reversals sometimes occurred when the bull/bear ratio was 2 to 1 or greater. Yesterday, Mark suggested that a daily 1 to 1 bull/bear vote could be an indication of a market top and presumably a subsequent market reversal. Also, do you think it would make any difference if the poll was more specific as to which index you think may be rising or falling when you vote, or has history shown that such distinctions are not necessary?

[flyers&divers]

Maxwell, Mark should comment on this. I do not know the background of tis poll I have simply taken this over from Darris when Darris stopped posting as a token contribution to the board. It so happens that I am interested in this beause sentiment is a vital ingredient of short term market dynamics. I have been plotting the daily results for a few months trying to extract something useful for my swing trading activities. I am attempting to make my indicators simple so I am not looking for subtleties. There seem to be one discernible pattern where imbalance in sentiment is followed by reversal or stalling in the price move. (not surprising) I am sure thre are other patterns that have not come to me. I am just about starting with a study where I will compare the swings in sentiment to the swings in UD volume and AD swings to see if the divergences have any consistent effect on price. This morning it occured to me that considering that the short term tecnicals yesterday were not bullish an even split between bullish and bearish percentages is actually bearish. So I guess, to be precise, one would have to fit the reading into the three four day wave patterns. Perhaps this is the kind of condition that Mark was referring to. I'll ley the board know if I see abnything meaningful.

[OEXCHAOS]

I'm wondering how this daily poll is interpreted.

A couple of days ago, I believe you mentioned that market reversals sometimes occurred when the bull/bear ratio was 2 to 1 or greater.

Yesterday, Mark suggested that a daily 1 to 1 bull/bear vote could be an indication of a market top and presumably a subsequent market reversal.

This is based upon what I've seen in the Fearless Forcaster Survey results as well as early MB poll results. I don't really have hard data on the MB poll results. I'll also note that we have better participation now, too, so I could be wrong. We're learning as we go, and applying what we know about other data pools to this one intuitively, but we have to be huristic with this stuff.

Also, do you think it would make any difference if the poll was more specific as to which index you think may be rising or falling when you vote, or has history shown that such distinctions are not necessary?

I think that it would only make a difference during a period of major divergence (like recently). Most of the time, it would be irrelevant, I think. But then, I'm just guessing. It might be interesting and useful, or it might just be a distraction.

If we change the poll, however, we'll invalidate the data pool that we already have.

Mark