I'm seeing a positive pattern for the dollar in price, in moving averages,in my secret accumulation indicator(it is showing a very strong positive divergence) and sentiment has been so negative on the dollar. I see a rise to the 93 level coming in the dollar index and maybe higher(talking months here not the next few days). 7 to 10% drop in gold stocks this week. I do think there will be an early rise in the gold stocks Monday and if it last and holds into the close I would change my mind on what I said above for the short term, at least.
Scott
Gold Stocks Fall this week
Started by
skott
, Mar 01 2004 12:55 AM
60 replies to this topic
#2
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 01:05 AM
I agreed with you Skott that the $dollar is due for a m/t uptrend. The Comex Gold is already in a m/t downtrend since mid Jaunary and gold stocks had its m/t pullback that started at the beginning of December.
But I believe gold/silver stocks still got some good s/t rallies left going for them and that could be this week. Anyone wanting to short gold should rather short Comex gold for now.
good luck trading. SBC.
#3
hiker
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 08:22 AM
am looking for short entries on gold stocks early this week. For two-week hold or so. Thursday's ECB meeting will likely have impact all week.
#4
skott
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 09:12 AM
For it is going to depend on how they close today. If we do have an up day then this will be a small loss for me. If they close down today and us dollar manages to go up then I think we have the down week. good luck
Scott
#5
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 10:05 AM
okay... just link don't the $dollar effect into gold stocks too much (maybe for comex gold, yes). it's like some traders who are trying to link a stock market top to the low vix/vxn indexes. good luck. (i'm long gold/silver stocks and enjoying it and this should coincide with the s/t bottom rally the stock market should enjoy this week.)
#6
skott
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 10:15 AM
so far it is going according to plan and I have a profit (so far) I shorted after the gap up. Now we need to see a close lower today and then I think it is a down week. good luck
#7
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 10:18 AM
thanks Skott, as always we have our stop orders in place.
#8
skott
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 10:47 AM
speaking of stops, for what it is worth, 43.42 is important level for nem today. If it breaks and holds below the break we should see 43.08 today and if we go lower than that 42.72 would be the lower support. we have just about hit 43.42 already today and bounced. For my trade to work I am pretty sure we need to close below 43.42. An up day today on the close would probably be bullish short term.
Scott
#9
skott
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 02:29 PM
closed my intraday short on nem. shorted at 44.15 and covered at average price of 43.81. I will reenter short only if we get some real weakness and look like we'll go below nem's pivot of 43.42. Not the 7-10% I was looking for if I held short all week but 3/4% in 5 hours ain't bad.
Scott
#10
stockbucks_coffee
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Posted 01 March 2004 - 02:43 PM
Skott, you made had shorted a day early...I don't like the rally action today...I bought middle of last week so I doing okay but I may either sell or tighten up my stop orders later today. I was hoping for a better rally heading into this week but my s/t indicators for gold stocks are showing negative divergence so if that don't improve then it may look like a s/t high around here.
will get final results at end of day and post it but so far it's turning bearish.
