12 replies to this topic

[PMILLY]

Just wanted to start a new thread because of how many replies we had in the last one. I agree with skott and hiker that the best plan of action may be to stand aside until tomorrow's announcement on interest rates comes out. I have a feeling that nothing will change , but obviously that is just a guess. Pmilly

[hiker]

POG at 3-mo. low, see below - 15:00 ET Dow +3, Nasdaq -5, S&P +1.63 [BRIEFING.COM] The listless trade carries on, with the major averages vacillating near their respective session highs... The gold sector, which had been among the leading laggards earlier in the session has retraced all of its losses and is currently trading in positive territory... The same cannot be said about the price of gold metal, which is lower by $1.10 at $392.70/oz... The precious metal's price fell to its lowest level in more than three months today as the dollar staged a notable recovery against the euro (EUR/USD 1.2181)...

[stockbucks_coffee]

thanks for starting new thread PMilly. yes it's probably good to see the reaction of the market from the ECB meeting. Note, I don't factor in or use the $dollar to influence my gold/silver stock trading. though I don't follow the interest rate spread (30yr yld minus the 13wk yld.) Case in point, $dollar rise first half of 2002, same for gold. $dollar drops afterward, same for gold for 2nd half 2002.

[hiker]

03-Mar-04 15:21 Treasury Market Summary Treasuries sold off sharply this morning, pushing yields on the 10-year as high as 4.102% mid-day on a strong dollar and positive outlook on Friday's employment data. Momentum fell off mid-day, however, pulling yields back down to relatively unchanged as the ISM Services and Beige Book releases provided little fuel to continue the sell-off, while positions continue to unwind in front of Friday's release. Tomorrow's ECB meeting (1:45 AM ET) could spark a sizable move in Eurozone treasuries, as a rate cut is still an outside consideration. A mid-day rumor that the respected Medley Advisors had issued a report saying the Fed was trying to gently let the market know rates would climb sooner rather than later gave the market a brief bid. The news was quickly discounted when the wording boiled down to the same old, same old, basically saying the Fed would remain on hold for months. Fed fund futures are pricing in an 85% for an August hike.

[stockbucks_coffee]

though I don't follow the interest rate spread (30yr yld minus the 13wk yld.)

typo from previous post...should be

though I DO follow the interest rate spread (30yr yld minus the 13wk yld.)

[skott]

does anyone know when The ECB announces......sometime in the morning, but when? Scott

[stockbucks_coffee]

caught it from Hiker's post... ECB meeting (1:45 AM ET) that's tonight??? thanks, Hiker.

[hiker]

you are welcome... All those timely posts come from a platinum subscription to briefing.com for $25 a month... have been with briefing since their inception about 10 years ago and would not be without the organized news feed it provides. See you tomorrow. Most profitable trading today for me was EVOL & MAMA daytrades. I have a firm hand on my gold shorts. Don't replicate my trading decisions because my strategy on the gold shorts is to accumulate shorts into a potential choppy correction in POG. I have a great deal of risk tolerance in this strategy because it represents a small % of my trading portfolio and I am scaling into gold mining shorts on strength...with a multi-week or longer exit time frame...so, please know for this accumulation strategy I am accepting a high level of risk tolerance. Am not being predictive about POG, just placing a trade on probabilities with a small amount of my funds.

[hiker]

I will note that on the first sign of escalation of terrorism, my shorts are history...

[stockbucks_coffee]

ditto here...if the G7 or other orgs announces plan to sell their gold reserves my longs i bought today are history anyway...my s/t indicator for gold/silver stocks turned up at midday and closed up for a buy signal. majority of the time the signal is for the NEXT DAY or two. rarely does it means for the same day like today as the xau/hui breached last week's support level but bounced back up in green (ah...and made a good candlestick though a small hammer head.) whether the buy signal was meant for today only or also for tomorrow...we'll see how gold/silver stocks reacts to the ECB meeting on interest rates.