32 replies to this topic

[skott]

I closed my short because we didn't follow thru lower and I am limiting my risk.I will look for a better trade. I disagree wth you SilentOne. I think Gold Stocks will work themselves lower for months with intermediate rises along the way. At this point the central banks could squash gold if they get out of control with their sales. I'm not saying that will happen but there is alot hanging over this market. Scott

[stockbucks_coffee]

Skott and SilentOne...I'm still debating whether the xau/hui is still in a m/t downtrend OR have already hit a m/t bottom from late Jan./early Feb. So i'm still neutral. what would turn me more bullish would be if the xau/hui close above this week's highs. what would turn me more bearish would be if the xau/hui close below last's week's lows. for now my s/t indicators are slightly up...so it's still a s/t buy signal. have a good trading folks.

[PMILLY]

I am sort of in between SilentOne and skott. It depends on your timeframe as well. I think gold is at point where I would like to short gold stocks s/t. On the other hand, it seems that we are getting close to an m/t bottom, within a week or two as the stocks work off their daily overbought condition. I will probably be a buyer of the gold stocks when I feel that their daily stochastics have bottomed. Therefore, I agree with SilentOne that gold stocks may be a good buy sometime this month. Only time will tell. Pmilly

[hiker]

for postion sizes more than 1/100% of trading porfolio I have the following discipline... buy on strength, sell on weakness. I am not entering long gold stocks until a sustained uptrend is in play...why try to pick an entry when the action is choppy when likelihood of whipsaw is beyond acceptable tolerance.... just my method of money management, which is based on opportunity cost as the priority focus. Every minute I am in a trade, is a lost opportunity to be in another trade in another stock or sector or index or commodity or currency. Palladium price is uptrending currently in more steady fashion than gold, as an example.

[hiker]

EGO leads at +6% real time on my gold watch list. Palladium plays PAL and SWC are about +1%.

[skott]

Hiker are you saying buy strenght in the gold stock market? what do you consider strength? If you are saying breakouts maybe but buying strength for the last 2 months has meant buying the top. Tell me what you mean. Scott

[hiker]

the uptrend from March to the January highs is what I mean by strength. We have no such trend in play since the POG high. Just choppy action. Biotechs are uptrending strongly right now is another example of action that lacks choppy behavior. Using a protective stop that locks in profits in biotech longs and taking profits along the uptrend at key times. I just completed scaling out of longs snvbf.ob, nabi, alth, and a few others held for a few weeks...only because I don't know what will happen tomorrow and I can reenter.

[SilentOne]

Can someone tell me how to post charts here? I have been a frequent poster at other boards, yet cannot manage anything here. cheers, john

[skott]

Well, I went long NEM @ 42.50 near the close. Looking for a gap up tomorrow and perhaps 43.50. day trade for me.My Webpage

Hiker, I thought you were shorting gold stocks and this morning was supposed to be the final wave of selling...was that you? Last I read you were entering shorts for 2 weeks or so and that no one else should try that. sorry if I'm wrong about all this...so many posts to read.

silentone, click on the http:// you see when you are enterying a reply. then insert the link for the chart.

[hiker]

good info. below hot off the briefing press - On Thursday, the European Central Bank elected to leave its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 2.0%. Intuitively, that decision should have invited dollar weakness as interest rate differentials favor the euro. As it so happens, the dollar continued to gain ground, which suggests one of two things - either the currency market is now pre-disposed to favor economic growth rate differentials as the key factor in buying and selling decisions or it is holding steadfast in its belief that interest rate differentials will start working in the greenback's favor with a strong nonfarm payrolls number driving market rates higher in anticipation of a Fed tightening. With the latter in mind, the dollar's next move should be determined by the strength, or weakness, of the February employment report. A Dollar for Your Thoughts In the interim, it is worth discussing some of the implications of renewed dollar strength for the stock market. The obvious implication is that a stronger dollar will curb some of the earnings momentum enjoyed by multinational companies as profits made abroad won't be worth as much when they are repatriated. In turn, American companies will lose some of the pricing advantages afforded them by the weaker dollar, which would also crimp overall profit growth. Businesses then that derive a healthy percentage of sales outside the U.S. might find it more difficult to deliver on profit expectations. At the same time, a stronger dollar should squelch concerns about the inflationary pressures embedded in a weaker dollar. Prices on imported goods would remain relatively low and the price of oil, denominated in dollars and a key resource for consumers and business alike, could move lower. As a reminder, OPEC has cited a weaker dollar as a reason for why it has been reluctant to boost production. Lower oil prices, and lower energy prices in general, would be a welcome sight for most, and in particular the manufacturing, chemical, and transportation companies. On the flip side, energy stocks would be at risk of underperforming as declining energy prices would invite selling interest. Gold stocks could be vulnerable to increased selling interest if a stronger dollar leads to a sustained decline in gold prices, which have moved considerably higher in conjunction with a weakening dollar that makes the precious metal less expensive for foreign purchasers. Already we have seen those concerns manifest themselves in the market as the XAU Gold Index has slipped 5.0% since Feb. 11 (gold prices have fallen 4.3% over the same period). In a post 9/11 world, though, gold has regained stature as a viable investment alternative, so we wouldn't expect a full-scale sell-off in the commodity or gold stocks. As strong as the dollar has been of late, it is too early to pronounce its resurgence as being an albatross around the stock market's neck. True, profit growth might suffer somewhat because of a stronger dollar, but the table below, which pinpoints average trading levels for the euro and the yen over the past four quarters, along with the growth in operating earnings for the S&P for the same periods, shows there is still plenty of running room before dollar strength acts as a serious drag on profit prospects. Be that as it may, an investor should be mindful that a strengthening dollar won't prop up the stock market in the same manner a weakening dollar did as a stronger dollar typically goes hand-in-hand with higher interest rates. Period Euro Yen Yr/Yr Op. Earnings Growth for S&P 500 1Q03 1.0734 118.9718 15.0% 2Q03 1.1371 118.5177 11.0% 3Q03 1.12645 117.4111 24.1% 4Q03 1.19193 108.7783 *27.3% 1Q04 (current avg.) 1.2589 106.8396