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#1 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 11:23 AM

For those that missed my post on Mr. Dev's post here it is...

Next major low should come by June 18, 2011 which is Martin Armstrong's next 8.6 yr. pi cycle low...the last one was on Nov.8 , 2002. 2008 could give one final up move.

I found this about Martin Armstrong written by MoneyWeek last March just after the market crashed on his pi cycle. Armstrong is in prison until 2012 - the Supreme Court just rejected his lawyer's appeal for credit from the 7 yrs contempt of court served being applied to his current 5 yr. sentence. (he has been in prison since 2000), the author of this article must have interviewed him in prison to get this more current information.

From MoneyWeek...
"What the pi-cycle model predicts now
Recent events in the world’s stockmarkets show the stunning accuracy with which Armstrong’s pi-cycle model can forecast markets, with investors panicking right on cue on 27 February. But what stage of Armstrong’s 8.6-year cycle are markets at now, and what does he forecast for the years ahead?

According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy."

This chart shows the force of the down moves are much greater now than recent years, however this latest down is showing less money flow than August's so there may be some intermediate term hope for da bulls. I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p73194713936&r=6600.png

Edited by Russ, 11 November 2007 - 11:26 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#2 pabletto

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 11:31 AM

[quote name='Russ' date='Nov 11 2007, 12:23 PM' post='328719']
For those that missed my post on Mr. Dev's post here it is...

Next major low should come by June 18, 2011 which is Martin Armstrong's next 8.6 yr. pi cycle low...the last one was on Nov.8 , 2002. 2008 could give one final up move.

I found this about Martin Armstrong written by MoneyWeek last March just after the market crashed on his pi cycle.



no no no no no no no....


http://www.nowandfut...om/buscycle.htm

#3 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 11:36 AM

no no no no no no no....
http://www.nowandfut...om/buscycle.htm


What exactly are you objecting to???????????

Edited by Russ, 11 November 2007 - 11:37 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#4 pabletto

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 11:40 AM

I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.

#5 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 11:49 AM

I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.


Look at the chart of the Economic Confidence Model, you can see that while 1998.55 was the peak internally the high did not come until the next partial cycle in Sept. 2000 when the SPX finally rolled over. The equivalent date now is April 23, 2009. Also of importance is that the bkx peaked right on the cycle last Feb. and has not recovered but everything has a bounce eventually, it looks to have done 5 waves down now. Armstrong himself is quoted as saying in the March 2007 article that 2008 is likely going to be bullish. What is the problem?


[img]http://web.archive.org/web/20030223010359/http://www.armstrongdefensefund.org/martypei/images/eco1997.jpg[/img]

Edited by Russ, 11 November 2007 - 11:58 AM.

"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#6 pabletto

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 12:23 PM

Armstrong himself is quoted as saying in the March 2007 article that 2008 is likely going to be bullish. What is the problem? from the end of 2008 to 2009...

#7 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 12:32 PM

Armstrong himself is quoted as saying in the March 2007 article that 2008 is likely going to be bullish. What is the problem?



from the end of 2008 to 2009...



From MoneyWeek...
"Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year."

I am a tolerant person but not when someone is spewing manure like you are.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#8 Tor

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 01:22 PM

For those that missed my post on Mr. Dev's post here it is...

Next major low should come by June 18, 2011 which is Martin Armstrong's next 8.6 yr. pi cycle low...the last one was on Nov.8 , 2002. 2008 could give one final up move.

I found this about Martin Armstrong written by MoneyWeek last March just after the market crashed on his pi cycle. Armstrong is in prison until 2012 - the Supreme Court just rejected his lawyer's appeal for credit from the 7 yrs contempt of court served being applied to his current 5 yr. sentence. (he has been in prison since 2000), the author of this article must have interviewed him in prison to get this more current information.

From MoneyWeek...
"What the pi-cycle model predicts now
Recent events in the world’s stockmarkets show the stunning accuracy with which Armstrong’s pi-cycle model can forecast markets, with investors panicking right on cue on 27 February. But what stage of Armstrong’s 8.6-year cycle are markets at now, and what does he forecast for the years ahead?

According to the Princeton Economic confidence model, markets peaked on 27 February and can’t be expected to perform strongly in the year ahead. Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year. He notes that the fact many commodities peaked last spring shows capital flows are currently focused on the stockmarkets worldwide, and that after the panic selling clears, commodities will resume their bull market for the “next major leg up”, with oil going above $100 a barrel and gold well over $2,000 an ounce. The next major slump is forecast for 18 June 2011. Over the longer term, the next 51.6-year confidence cycle will end in 2032, plunging markets into a 1930s-style depression. He believes that the next 51.6-year cycle will be kick-started by a return to ‘big government’ economic policies, whereby governments intervene much more extensively in the economy."

This chart shows the force of the down moves are much greater now than recent years, however this latest down is showing less money flow than August's so there may be some intermediate term hope for da bulls. I also note what Don Wolanchuk has posted on the commercials being bullish now so 2008 may be better.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=p73194713936&r=6600.png


I started to follow marty, but clearly it doesnt work. He was pointing to THE top in Feb, and since then we have been higher. and may yet go higher. Cearly it doesnt work. Thats my take.
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#9 Russ

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 02:05 PM

I started to follow marty, but clearly it doesnt work. He was pointing to THE top in Feb, and since then we have been higher. and may yet go higher. Cearly it doesnt work. Thats my take.
--------------------

Tor


Well I obviously I disagree with you completely.

The market did peak internally in 1998 and now just look at what's happening, the banking and housing indexes have had the :redbull: knocked out of them. The banking index peaked right on the 8.6 year cycle last Feb! What more do you want? Internally the market which was being driven by housing is now much weaker. The commodity markets boomed as he predicted back in the early 1990's and the Canadian dollar went down to 62 cents US and then rallied to above parity again something he predicted long ago.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$BKX&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=t68332584591&r=695.png
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#10 pabletto

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Posted 11 November 2007 - 02:22 PM

Armstrong himself is quoted as saying in the March 2007 article that 2008 is likely going to be bullish. What is the problem?



from the end of 2008 to 2009...



From MoneyWeek...
"Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year."

I am a tolerant person but not when someone is spewing manure like you are.



mee too I' tolerant... :rolleyes:

Armstrong himself is quoted as saying in the March 2007 article that 2008 is likely going to be bullish. What is the problem?



from the end of 2008 to 2009...



From MoneyWeek...
"Armstrong is bullish for 2008, however, seeing a rebound for markets, housing and especially physical assets, such as commodities, that year."

I am a tolerant person but not when someone is spewing manure like you are.



I'm tolerant too... :rolleyes: